Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/23/2026

Game Time: 1:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 23, 2026

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  ESPN Unlimited, MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +109, Guardians -131; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +110, Guardians -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +110, Guardians -130; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Minnesota Twins:  49-53 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  54-48 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Minnesota Twins:  4-6 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  7-3 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-53 record overall and have a road record of 23-28. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Guardians on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Twins lost the series opener on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Bailey Ober is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Taj Bradley is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 9-4 with a 3.85 ERA this season. His team won 6 of their last 7 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 6 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Chicago Cubs.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-48 record overall and have a home record of 27-24. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Twins on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Guardians won the 1st game of this series on Monday and the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .690 OPS. Slade Cecconi is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Gavin Williams is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers, and 0 walks with 11 strikeouts on 7 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 54-48 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 27-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 49-53 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-28 road record this year. The Twins were rolling into the All-Star break with their offense putting up a ton of runs, but they have lost a lot of that momentum coming out of the break. Their offense hasn't looked nearly as good on this side of the All-Star break and they are now 4-6 in their last 10 games too. The Guardians don't have a great offense themselves, but they do have great pitching and they have been getting hot lately, now 7-3 in their last 10 games with their offense improving too. Williams is on the mound for the Guardians in this one and he has looked good this year. He is 10-5 with a 4.00 ERA and he leads the team in wins this season. He did give up 5 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and the team has still been having a ton of success with him lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Twins are going with Bradley in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 9-4 with a 3.85 ERA, but lately he hasn't looked great. The team has been having a ton of success with him, winning 6 of their last 7 games with him starting, but he did give up 5 earned runs in his last start and now the Twins offense won't be able to bail him out with the way they have been hitting lately. Look for the Guardians to take advantage of this pitching matchup with a starter that they have had a ton of success with this season and continue rolling, gaining ground in the AL Central. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Twins Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 23, 2026 (1:10 pm ET start time) is Guardians 4 Twins 3.

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Minnesota Twins: 201-225 (-46.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 94-119 (-20.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 63-70 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 32-17 OVER in road games.

Cleveland Guardians: 239-199 (+36.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 126-94 (+11.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 87-53 (+28.8 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 15-10 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175.

Minnesota Twins:  A. Banda (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. M. Abel (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Prielipp (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. M. Raya (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Acton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Sands (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. D. Festa (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  T. Herrin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Martinez (LF) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Ramirez (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand.

“For three of the days, we didn’t pitch very well. Tonight, we didn’t pitch very well. We did not put people away, and that’s what we have to do to win games.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Guardians in their game on Tuesday. 

“Nobody really counts a low-to-mid-90s lefty heater. You kind of just count it out and think that you can get to it, and it really just sneaks up on guys. I think now, it's starting to be one of those things where they know I have a good heater, and they're going to start swinging at it more and trying to get the head out on it. That just opens things back up for other pitches.” - Parker Messick after their win against the Twins in their game on Tuesday. 

Austin Martin (R) LF

Byron Buxton (R) CF

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Josh Bell (S) DH

Royce Lewis (R) 3B

Victor Caratini (S) 1B

Kody Clemens (L) 2B

Luke Keaschall (R) RF

Ryan Kreidler (R) SS

Steven Kwan (L) LF

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Chase DeLauter (L) DH

Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B

David Fry (R) RF

Travis Bazzana (L) 2B

Gabriel Arias (R) 3B

Austin Hedges (R) C

Petey Halpin (L) CF

Batting Average:  Gabriel Gonzalez (.500)

Hits:  Josh Bell (91)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (25)

RBI:  Josh Bell (60)

Stolen Bases:  Luke Keaschall (12)

Wins:  Taj Bradley (9)

Saves:  Yoendrys Gómez (11)

ERA:  Jack Anderson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Chase DeLauter (.288)

Hits:  Brayan Rocchio (93)

Home Runs:  Angel Martínez (11)

RBI:  Chase DeLauter (50)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (24)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (10)

Saves:  Cade Smith (29)

ERA:  Franco Aleman (1.80)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Derek Shelton (1st season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)