by Rod Pearson
Monday, Aug 10, 2026
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Brewers -143, Padres +119; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Brewers -145, Padres +120; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Brewers -145, Padres +120; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Milwaukee Brewers: 74-44 (1st place, NL Central)
San Diego Padres: 62-57 (3rd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Milwaukee Brewers: 7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres: 7-3 last 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Brewers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 74-44 record overall and have a road record of 33-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Logan Henderson is their starting pitcher on Monday while Kyle Harrison is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 10 SO on 1 hit through 5 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-57 record overall and have a home record of 34-26. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 24th in the MLB with a .698 OPS. Casey Mize is their starting pitcher on Monday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-5 with a 5.07 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have looked great in their games this season with their 74-44 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL Central with one of the best records in MLB. They have been a great road team too with their 33-22 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 62-57 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 34-26 home record this season. Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games respectively and have been rolling lately, but the Brewers are going to have the better pitching matchup here. The Brewers are going with Harrison in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs this season. He is coming off another great start giving up no runs which has been a common theme for him this year and the team has been having success with him too, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. Buehler is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he hasn't looked good this year. He is 6-5 with a 5.07 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs all season. His team has been having a lot more success with him lately, winning 5 games in a row now with him starting. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year. Look for the Brewers to take advantage of this pitching matchup with the much stronger offense too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game.
Brewers Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Brewers 5 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Milwaukee Brewers: 74-44 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 33-22 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 59-29 (+13.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 32-20 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175.
San Diego Padres: 23-28 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8 to 8.5. 24-31 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 7-19 (-11.7 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. 35-26 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125.
Key Injuries
Milwaukee Brewers: C. Pratt (SS) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Ortiz (SS) Day To Day - Neck. K. Harrison (SP) Day To Day - Calf. S. Frelick (RF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. J. Romero (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Appendix. R. Zastryzny (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Woodruff (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Kuhnel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. Q. Priester (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. B. Fitzpatrick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Zerpa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm.
San Diego Padres: M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“He's a fascinating young man. To have him handle all this the way he's handling it solidifies in my mind who this kid is.” - Pat Murphy on Misiorowski after his team’s win against the Twins in their game on Sunday.
“It takes our team to another level, when he can kind of put us on his back and be like, ‘Hey, I got you guys.’ I’ve just seen it in his eye here lately that he’s got that feeling that he can do it.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio (R) LF
Brice Turang (L) 2B
Andrew Vaughn (R) 3B
William Contreras (R) DH
Jake Bauers (L) 1B
Luis Lara (S) RF
Gary Sánchez (R) C
Brandon Lockridge (R) CF
David Hamilton (L) SS
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Luis Rengifo (S) LF
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Milwaukee Brewers
Batting Average: Jihwan Bae (1.000)
Hits: Brice Turang (119)
Home Runs: Jake Bauers (21)
RBI: Brice Turang (74)
Stolen Bases: David Hamilton (21)
Wins: Aaron Ashby (13)
Saves: Trevor Megill (21)
ERA: Easton McGee (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Austin Hays (1.000)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (130)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (23)
RBI: Manny Machado (70)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (26)
Wins: Adrian Morejon (8)
Saves: Mason Miller (29)
ERA: Mason Miller (0.91)
Managers:
Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (3rd season)
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
