Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2026

Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Saturday, July 11, 2026

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -131, Pirates +109; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -130, Pirates +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -130, Pirates +110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Milwaukee Brewers:  59-34 (1st place, NL Central)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  47-47 (4th place, NL Central)

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Milwaukee Brewers:  7-3 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and won their 5-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 4-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 59-34 record overall and have a road record of 30-16. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Brandon Sproat is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Shane Drohan is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 2 SO on 6 hits through 6 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Pirates are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-47 record overall and have a home record of 24-24. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Braxton Ashcraft is their starting pitcher on Friday while Bubba Chandler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-8 with a 4.82 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 4 walks with 0 strikeouts on 6 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 47-47 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 24-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers have looked great in their games this season with their 59-34 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL Central with one of the best records in MLB. They have been a great road team too with their 30-16 road record this year. The Brewers have been rolling in their games lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Pirates are only 5-5 in their last 10 games and the Brewers do have the better pitching matchup in this one. Drohan is on the mound for the Brewers in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and he has been having a great rookie year. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him this season, and the team has been having a lot of success with him lately too, winning 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Pirates are going with Chandler in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 3-8 with a 4.82 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs this year. His team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 4 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Pirates have also had a lot of trouble with their bullpen all season while the Brewers have one of the best in the league, so all signs point to the Brewers taking this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game. 

Brewers Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 11, 2026 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Brewers 5 Pirates 4.

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Milwaukee Brewers: 253-177 (+51.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 122-92 (+33.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 156-94 (+21.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 9-2 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 195-223 (-20.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 45-61 (-15.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 59-72 (-12.9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 34-24 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

Milwaukee Brewers:  D. Hamilton (SS) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Lockridge (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Kuhnel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Woodruff (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. Q. Priester (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. C. Crow (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Fitzpatrick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Hall (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Pectoral. R. Zastryzny (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. A. Zerpa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. 

Pittsburgh Pirates:  E. Rodriguez (C) Ten Day IL - Lower Body. K. Griffin (SS) Ten Day IL - Finger. E. Sisk (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. W. Dotel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. O. Cruz (CF) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

“You can’t find a player -- Miz [Jacob Misiorowski], maybe -- who has had a bigger impact. Bauers has had a huge impact this whole year, as well as Brice [Turang], as well as William [Contreras], as well as [Kyle] Harrison. They’re all deserving.” - Pat Murphy after his team’s win against the Cardinals in their game on Thursday.

“Yeah, it's tough right there, the way the 'pen has been this year. At times, recently, has shown to be better. Just couldn't hold it today.” - Don Kelly after his team’s loss against the Braves in their game on Thursday.

Garrett Mitchell (L) CF

Jackson Chourio (R) LF

Brice Turang (L) 2B

William Contreras (R) C

Jake Bauers (L) DH

Andrew Vaughn (R) 1B

Sal Frelick (L) RF

Cooper Pratt (R) SS

Joey Ortiz (R) 3B

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) DH

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Tyler Callihan (L) 1B

Rafael Flores Jr. (R) C

Jared Triolo (R) SS

Batting Average:  Tyler Black (.333)

Hits:  William Contreras (95)

Home Runs:  Jake Bauers (17)

RBI:  Jake Bauers (57)

Stolen Bases:  David Hamilton (18)

Wins:  Aaron Ashby (12)

Saves:  Trevor Megill (14)

ERA:  Easton McGee (0.00)

Batting Average:  Rafael Flores (.429)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (101)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (21)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (64)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (9)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (11)

ERA:  Evan Sisk (2.23)

Managers:

Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (3rd season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)