Michigan State Spartans vs USC Trojans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/20/2025

Game Time: 11:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 20, 2025

Venue:  LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA 

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +17.5, USC -17.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +18, USC -18; Over/Under:  56 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +18.5, USC -18.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  3-0 (0-0) (10th place, Big Ten)

USC Trojans:  3-0 (1-0) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Michigan State Spartans:  won their last game at home against the Youngstown State Penguins 41-24.

USC Trojans:  won their last game on the road against the Purdue Boilermakers 33-17.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Youngstown State 41-24. Aidan Chiles was the starting QB and he completed 22/29 passes for 270 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Aidan Chiles led the team in rushing yards with 76. Nick Marsh led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Wayne Matthews III led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Jordan Hall and Anelu Lafaele each led the defense in sacks with 1. Armorion Smith came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

USC is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Purdue 33-17. Jayden Maiava was the starting QB and he completed 17/28 passes for 282 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Waymond Jordan led the team in rushing yards with 77 and 1 TD. Ja'Kobi Lane led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Eric Gentry led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Eric Gentry led the defense in sacks with 2. Bishop Fitzgerald came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

The current betting odds have USC listed as a 17.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. USC has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They haven't played any notable opponents yet, but they are off a road win over Purdue to start their conference schedule and that game did give them a bit of a test. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall. They are off a big win over Youngstown in their last one, but their defense still wasn't great against a team from the FCS. Their defense has also looked terrible in other games this season. Their only real test so far was a home win against Boston College 2 weeks ago, but they gave up 40 points in that one and needed OT to win that game by 2. Now this is their first real road test in their first conference game of the season too, and they have to travel out West which puts them in a bad situation here. USC has been flying under the radar this season after a few years of disappointment under Lincoln Riley, but they have a chance to really announce themselves as a threat with another conference win against an undefeated opponent. The best way to place a bet here is on USC to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State USC Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 20, 2025 (11:00 pm ET start time) is USC 42 MSU 20.

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Michigan State Spartans: 7-15 ATS in all lined games. 6-11 ATS against conference opponents. 1-6 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 6-3 OVER off a home win. 

USC Trojans: 8-4 ATS as a home favorite. 28-19 ATS at home vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 18-10 OVER in all lined games. 8-4 OVER as a home favorite.

Michigan State Spartans:  L. Vincic (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Frazier (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Chaney (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Brinson IV (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Luniewski (OG) Questionable - Foot. C. Gash (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ahmetbasic (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Lepo (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Schickel (LS) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Satchell (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.

USC Trojans:  C. Johnson (CB) Out - Knee. C. Chittenden (K) Out - Undisclosed. P. Strachan (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Graham (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Brown (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Jackson (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“Well, 3-0, we'll obviously take that. It's kind of what I told the team, though: we got more to us. Credit to Youngstown State. I thought some schematics gave us a couple of issues, especially on defense. We're not even kind of lined up correctly and increases the chance of the big hit. Then schematically, in the run game offensively. We got more to it, so we've got to get something going there and make it a little bit easier on the quarterback to get us some better down and distances.” - Jonathan Smith after his team’s win against Youngstown State in their last game.

“I think this year we have a little chip on our shoulder when it comes to road games. We know what kind of mindset we have to have in the fourth quarter and it's not to settle.” - Ja’Kobi Lane after their win against Purdue in their last game. 

WR Marsh, Nick

WR Kelly, Omari

WR McCray, Chrishon

TE Masunas, Michael

QB Chiles, Aidan

RB Frazier, Makhi

FB Coyne, Jay

WR Lane, Ja'Kobi

WR Hines, Tanook

WR Lemon, Makai

TE McRee, Lake

QB Maiava, Jayden

RB Jordan, Waymond

Passing: A. Chiles (656)

Rushing: M. Frazier (206)

Receiving: N. Marsh (194)

Touchdowns: N. Marsh (3)

Passing: J. Maiava (989)

Rushing: W. Jordan (286)

Receiving: M. Lemon (311)

Touchdowns: W. Jordan (3)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Jonathan Smith (2nd season)

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (4th season)