Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/26/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Thursday, February 26, 2026

Venue:  Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN

Where to Watch:  Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +6.5, Purdue -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +6.5, Purdue -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +6.5, Purdue -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  22-5 (12-4) (5th place, Big Ten)

Purdue Boilermakers:  22-5 (12-4) (3rd place, Big Ten)

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Michigan State Spartans:  3-2  last 5

Purdue Boilermakers:  4-1  last 5

Michigan State is entering this game with a 22-5 record overall, a 12-4 record in conference games, and they are 4-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Ohio State Buckeyes in their last game. Carson Cooper led the team in points in that game with 20 while Jordan Scott was next on the team with 12. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Carson Cooper led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 40% from the field, 26.7% from 3-point range, and 72% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.1 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 12-13-2 this season and their O/U record is 11-16.

Purdue is entering this game with a 22-5 record overall, a 12-4 conference record, and they are 12-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Indiana Hoosiers in their last game. Trey Kaufman-Renn led the team in points in that game with 20 while Fletcher Loyer and Omer Mayer each were next on the team with 18. Braden Smith led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Oscar Cluff led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 64.7% from the field, 55.6% from 3-point range, and 68% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.3 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 13-14 this season and their O/U record is 13-14.

The current betting odds have Purdue listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Purdue has looked great in their games this season with their 22-5 record overall and their 12-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 12-3 home record this season. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked great in their games this season with their 22-5 record overall and their 12-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have been a good road team too with their 4-3 road record this year. Michigan State hasn't been at their best lately though. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games and coming off a home win over Ohio State in their last one, but they didn't look good for a lot of that game and needed a comeback win. That has been a common theme for them lately too, coming out slow at the start of games and having to work their way back in them. They have also had some road troubles lately with their last 2 road games both being losses, and they didn't look that good in their last road win against Rutgers either. Purdue has had their own trouble this season, but lately they have looked a lot better. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games and their only loss during that time was against Michigan who is pulling away from the rest of the Big Ten. Purdue has also picked up some really good wins lately though and they have been crushing opponents on their home court all season. Look for Purdue to keep rolling in this home game as they take advantage of a Michigan State team that has had trouble in road games lately. The best way to place a bet here is on Purdue to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State Purdue Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, February 26, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Purdue 87 Michigan State 76.

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Michigan State Spartans: 3-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5. 5-9 ATS after playing a home game. 2-5 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 5-1 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 free throws/game or less.

Purdue Boilermakers: 9-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. 10-5 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better. 32-22 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 9-0 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Michigan State Spartans:  D. Ugochukwu (G) Out - Foot. K. Glenn (F) Out - Knee.

Purdue Boilermakers:  None.

“We looked like a team that played like we’re going to win anyway, so we’d just do what we want to do, and that was the message at halftime. You don’t get to do that.” - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against OSU in their last game.

"I thought in our previous game Michigan really set the tone against us. In our previous two road games, we were able to set the tone from a rebounding standpoint. Obviously, tonight, I thought our guys did a good job.” - Matt Painter after his team’s win against Indiana in their last game.  

C. Carr 

C. Cooper 

J. Fears 

J. Kohler 

D. Ugochukwu

O. Cluff 

C. Cox 

T. Kaufman-Renn 

F. Loyer 

B. Smith

PPG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (15)

APG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.2)

Reb/G: Jaxon Kohler (9.3)

PPG: Braden Smith (14.9)

APG: Braden Smith (8.7)

Reb/G: Trey Kaufman-Renn (9)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (31st season)

Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (21st season)