by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 13, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 18, 2025
Venue: Indiana University Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Where to Watch: Peacock
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Michigan State +26.5, Indiana -26.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Michigan State +26.5, Indiana -26.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Michigan State +26.5, Indiana -26.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Season Record
Michigan State Spartans: 3-3 (0-3) (16th place, Big Ten)
Indiana Hoosiers: 6-0 (3-0) (1st place, Big Ten)
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Michigan State Spartans: lost their last game at home against the UCLA Bruins 38-13.
Indiana Hoosiers: won their last game on the road against the Oregon Ducks 30-20.
Michigan State Spartans vs Indiana Hoosiers Preview and Analysis
Michigan State is entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against UCLA 38-13. Aidan Chiles was the starting QB and he completed 8/17 passes for 66 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Makhi Frazier led the team in rushing yards with 58. Nick Marsh led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jordan Hall led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Alex VanSumeren, Quindarius Dunnigan, Cam Williams, and Grady Kelly each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Indiana is entering this game with a 6-0 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Oregon 30-20. Fernando Mendoza was the starting QB and he completed 20/31 passes for 215 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Roman Hemby led the team in rushing yards with 70 and 2 TDs. Elijah Sarratt led the receivers with 121 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Aiden Fisher led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Aiden Fisher and Kellan Wyatt each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Isiah Jones and Louis Moore each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Michigan State vs Indiana Prediction
The current betting odds have Indiana listed as a 26.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Indiana has looked great in their games this season with their 6-0 record overall and their 3-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. Last season, they had a great year but didn't match up well against the better teams in the nation as they were more a product of their schedule, but this is a completely different team this year. They have a better QB now and they have improved in a ton of areas which has made them a true contender to win a National Championship this year. They didn't do well when they were tested last season, but they have been passing tests this year with flying colors, beating down a ranked Illinois team 63-10 and now coming off a 30-20 road win over Oregon. Meanwhile, Michigan State hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 3-3 record overall and their 0-3 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They are off a 38-13 home loss to UCLA in their last one and they are 0-2 in their road games this year too. Michigan State is shaping up to be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season and they will be lucky if they can even score a single point on this Indiana defense. Indiana has been rolling all season, and blowing out bad teams like this is exactly what they do. The best way to place a bet here is on Indiana to cover the spread in this game.
Michigan State Indiana Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 18, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Indiana 42 Michigan State 3.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Michigan State Spartans: 9-16 ATS in all lined games. 4-9 ATS after playing a game at home. 3-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 3-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 25-17 OVER on the road versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 rushing yards/carry or less.
Indiana Hoosiers: 20-11 ATS in all lined games. 10-5 ATS as a home favorite. 14-7 ATS against conference opponents. 20-11 OVER in all lined games. 10-5 OVER as a home favorite. 14-7 OVER against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Michigan State Spartans: J. Savoury (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Lafaele (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ahmetbasic (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Pulliam (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Thompson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Ramil (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Parachek (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Martinez (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Burt (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Willie (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Schickel (LS) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Brown (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Vincic (OG) Out - Undisclosed. B. Pretzlaff (LB) Out - Undisclosed. A. Brinson IV (CB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Gash (CB) Out - Undisclosed.
Indiana Hoosiers: B. Baldwin Jr. (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Bonds (CB) Out - Undisclosed. L. Beebe Jr. (RB) Out - Leg. T. Morris (WR) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“He got banged up pretty good and was not available the rest of the time.” - Jonathan Smith after his team’s loss against UCLA in their last game.
“Our defense was tremendous in the second half, our kicking game was really good all day, and the offense made plays when they had to. Mendoza extended plays, made plays with his legs. And the play to Sarratt, obviously, was huge, huge.” - Curt Cignetti after his team’s win against Oregon in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Michigan State Spartans
WR Marsh, Nick
WR Kelly, Omari
WR McCray, Chrishon
TE Velling, Jack
QB Chiles, Aidan
RB Frazier, Makhi
FB Coyne, Jay
Indiana Hoosiers
WR Sarratt, Elijah
WR Williams Jr., E.J.
WR Cooper Jr., Omar
TE Nowakowski, Riley
QB Mendoza, Fernando
RB Hemby, Roman
Statistical Leaders
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: Aidan Chiles (1,019)
Rushing: Makhi Frazier (383)
Receiving: Omari Kelly (347)
Touchdowns: Aidan Chiles (5)
Indiana Hoosiers
Passing: Fernando Mendoza (1,423)
Rushing: Roman Hemby (421)
Receiving: Elijah Sarratt (533)
Touchdowns: Omar Cooper Jr. (7)
Coaches:
Michigan State Spartans: Jonathan Smith (2nd season)
Indiana Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
