Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/21/2026

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +112, Astros -135; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +110, Astros -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +110, Astros -135; Over/Under:  9 runs

Miami Marlins:  52-48 (3rd place, NL East)

Houston Astros:  47-54 (3rd place, AL West)

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Miami Marlins:  4-6 last 10

Houston Astros:  3-7 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-48 record overall and have a road record of 21-28. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Janson Junk is their starting pitcher on Monday while Tyler Phillips is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-4 with a 3.48 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 1 SO on 2 hits through 1 IP against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-54 record overall and have a home record of 23-27. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .724 OPS. Ronel Blanco is their starting pitcher on Monday while rookie pitcher Tatsuya Imai is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-4 with a 6.06 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 3 walks with 3 strikeouts on 4 hits through 3.2 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 52-48 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 21-28 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Astros haven't looked good in their games this season with their 47-54 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 23-27 home record this season. The Marlins were rolling into the All-Star break and they have stumbled coming out of it, now 4-6 in their last 10 games and getting swept in their last series, but they were also swept by the Brewers who have been one of the best teams in baseball. The Astros haven't looked any better lately as they were also making a push toward .500 just before the break, but they are now 3-7 in their last 10 games and also got swept out of the break, losing 3 in a row to the Orioles who aren't even .500. The Astros are going with Imai in this one and he hasn't looked great this season either. He is 5-4 with a 6.06 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs in this rookie season. The team has surprisingly had a ton of success with him lately, winning 5 of their last 6 games with him starting, and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this season and the Marlins offense has been really hot lately. The Marlins are also going with Phillips in this one and he hasn't looked bad this season. He is 2-4 with a 3.48 ERA and the team has been having success with him. They have won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme. Look for the Marlins to take advantage of this pitching matchup and bounce back after a tough series against the Brewers. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Marlins Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 21, 2026 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Marlins 6 Astros 2.

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Miami Marlins: 20-18 (+5.9 units) on the moneyline against AL West opponents. 193-231 (+17.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 94-117 (+25 units) on the moneyline in road games. 22-11 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

Houston Astros: 223-202 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 115-98 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 129-114 (-34.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 24-12 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Miami Marlins:  O. Lopez (SS) Day To Day - Hand. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Petersen (RP) Day To Day - Hamstring. J. King (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  C. Walker (1B) Day To Day - Hip. J. Pena (SS) Day To Day - Hamstring. B. Matthews (CF) Ten Day IL - Knee. M. Burrows (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. B. Sousa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I still have a ton of confidence in Pete. Going to continue to put him out there in those spots. Believe in the back of the card, and he's been doing this for a long time. No one's more frustrated than Pete right now that it just seems like any mistake he makes, guys aren't missing. He's got no other choice. Continue to go, and he's doing everything he can to be prepared, and so total confidence that it'll turn and we'll all be the beneficiaries. I think some of the performance just lines up with how good he has been and is still throwing the ball. That's what he signed up for, and [it’s] not always easy, but you know what? Pete is built for this, and he'll come out of it fine.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Brewers in their game on Sunday. 

“Not the outcome we were looking for. I thought we could have easily won two of three [vs. Baltimore]. Just things didn’t go our way, but we need to flush it and start playing better.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Sunday. 

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Javier Sanoja (R) SS

Liam Hicks (L) C

Leo Jiménez (R) 3B

Griffin Conine (L) DH

Esteury Ruiz (R) RF

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Jose Altuve (R) DH

Yordan Alvarez (L) LF

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 1B

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Lucas Spence (L) CF

Cam Smith (R) RF

Raynel Delgado (L) 2B

Nick Allen (R) SS

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.335)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (130)

Home Runs:  Liam Hicks (13)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (58)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (20)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (1.69)

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.319)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (115)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (31)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (73)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (9)

Wins:  Peter Lambert (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (10)

ERA:  Miguel Ullola (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)