Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/15/2025

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, August 15, 2025

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  FDSFL, WBFS, NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +140, Red Sox -172; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +140, Red Sox -170; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +140, Red Sox -165; Over/Under:  9 runs

Miami Marlins:  58-62 (3rd place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  66-56 (2nd place, AL East)

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Miami Marlins:  3-7 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

The Marlins lost their 5-game series against the Atlanta Braves 4-1. They enter this game with a 58-62 record overall and have a road record of 30-31. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Cleveland Guardians still to be played on Thursday. The Marlins lost the series opener of that series on Tuesday and won the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .713 OPS. Edward Cabrera is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-11 with a 6.55 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 2 HR, and 4 BB with 4 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 66-56 record overall and have a home record of 39-22. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Walker Buehler was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 6 walks with 1 strikeout on 5 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the San Diego Padres.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 66-56 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 39-22 home record. Meanwhile, the Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 58-62 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team this year either with their 30-31 road record. The Marlins were rolling just a few weeks ago, but now they are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have been starting to slump lately. The Red Sox haven't looked great lately themselves, but they are 5-5 in their last 10 and have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of at home. Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox in this one and he has looked great this year. He is 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA and the team has had a ton of success with him lately. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but he will be looking to bounce back with a better start at home and the team has still won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 6-11 with a 6.55 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs, something that has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Red Sox also have the much stronger offense to help them win this game at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Marlins Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 15, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 8 Marlins 3.

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Miami Marlins: 22-22 (+7.4 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 204-241 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-124 (+20.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 10-4 UNDER on the road vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season.

Boston Red Sox: 224-221 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 115-107 (-16.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 63-69 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 27-19 UNDER against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins:  J. Tinoco (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Norby (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. M. Mayer (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“He's on a real heater right now. I think it'd be hard to say you wouldn't be surprised by this type of production. It's been incredible. We're not surprised by what he's brought defensively, what he's brought on the bases, as well as the ability to make quality decisions in the batter's box. Those were things that he could really hang his hat on. And I think we expected to see those things. Some of the early power that he's shown has been maybe a little surprising, but a great thing. That just goes back to him putting himself in really good counts to hit and having a short swing. He's been a real boost.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday. 

“It’s big. A kid that I know from back home. He actually pitches for the winter ball team that I help in Caguas. For everything that he’s been through, just to post and be in the big leagues, I know it means a lot.” - Alex Cora after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Tuesday.

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Kyle Stowers (L) LF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Liam Hicks (L) 1B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Heriberto Hernández (R) DH

Troy Johnston (L) RF

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Roman Anthony (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Jarren Duran (L) CF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Batting Average:  Jakob Marsee (.436)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (130)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (25)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (72)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (22)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (6)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (11)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.305)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (126)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (21)

RBI:  Trevor Story (75)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (20)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (13)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (21)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)