Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/04/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025

Venue:  Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Miami-FL -4.5, FSU +4.5; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Miami-FL -4.5, FSU +4.5; Over/Under:  54 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Miami-FL -4.5, FSU +4.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

Miami Hurricanes:  4-0 (0-0) (10th place, ACC)

Florida State Seminoles:  3-1 (0-1) (11th place, ACC)

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Miami Hurricanes:  won their last game at home against the Florida Gators 26-7.

Florida State Seminoles:  lost their last game on the road against the Virginia Cavaliers 46-38 in overtime. 

Miami-Florida is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Florida 26-7. Carson Beck was the starting QB and he completed 17/30 passes for 160 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 116 and 1 TD. CharMar Brown led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Mohamed Toure led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Mohamed Toure, Jakobe Thomas, and Marquise Lightfoot each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Florida State is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Virginia 46-38 in OT. Thomas Castellanos was the starting QB and he completed 18/32 passes for 254 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Thomas Castellanos led the team in rushing yards with 78 and 1 TD. Duce Robinson led the receivers with 147 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Earl Little Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while Ashlynd Barker led the defense in sacks with 2. Elijah Herring, Ja'Bril Rawls, and Edwin Joseph each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Florida State listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida State has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them lower in the ACC. They are off their first loss of the season in their last game, losing on the road against Virginia, but they got down early in that one and showed a lot of resilience to fight back and force OT. They ended up losing, but that game was on Friday so they have had some extra time to prep for this one and they will be looking to bounce back in a big way at home. Meanwhile, Miami has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall which has them ranked as one of the best teams in the nation. They have a ton of talent on their team and have some good wins under their belt already, but their best opponent so far was Notre Dame and that was also their closest game. Florida State is going to bring their best effort for Miami in this one and they are going to be the more desperate team after losing last week. Miami still hasn't been tested by many good opponents, and Cristobal hasn't had to win in any close games other than their win over Notre Dame which they almost blew late. Florida State has the talent to keep this game close and Miami's coach has the ability to make poor decisions in a close game that could cost them here. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida State to cover the spread in this game. 

Miami Florida State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Florida State 28 Miami 24.

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Miami Hurricanes: 10-2 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-2 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 7-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 30-20 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 14-7 UNDER off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 

Florida State Seminoles: 23-37 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 1-6 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 2-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 9-4 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 12-6 UNDER against conference opponents.

Miami Hurricanes:  J. Trader (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lyle (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Florida State Seminoles:  A. Barker (CB) Questionable - Shoulder. R. Williams (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Markey (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Diggs (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Loftin (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Davis (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. LaVallee (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Boggs (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Pritchard (LB) Out - Undisclosed.

“We've come miles, but we have miles and miles to go.” - Mario Cristobal after his team’s win against Florida in their last game. 

“They started fast, took advantage of some of the mistakes we had early. We did not get off to the start that we needed to have. I was pleased with the way our guys responded.” - Mike Norvell after his team’s loss against UVA in their last game. 

WR Daniels, CJ

WR Marion, Keelan

WR Toney, Malachi 

TE Bauman, Alex

TE Lofton, Elija

QB Beck, Carson

RB Fletcher Jr., Mark

WR Robinson, Duce

WR Boggs, Jayvan

WR White, Squirrel

TE Pittman Jr., Randy

QB Castellanos, Tommy

RB Sawchuk, Gavin

Passing: Carson Beck (972)

Rushing: Mark Fletcher Jr. (388)

Receiving: Malachi Toney (268)

Touchdowns: Mark Fletcher Jr. (5)

Passing: Tommy Castellanos (848)

Rushing: Gavin Sawchuk (234)

Receiving: Duce Robinson (346)

Touchdowns: Gavin Sawchuk (7)

Coaches:

Miami Hurricanes: Mario Cristobal (4th season)

Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (6th season)