Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/20/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Friday, February 20, 2026

Venue:  State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  FDSSU, FDSSE-ATL

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat -2.5, Hawks +2.5; Over/Under:  242.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat -2.5, Hawks +2.5; Over/Under:  242.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat -2.5, Hawks +2.5; Over/Under:  242.5 points

Miami Heat:  29-27 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Atlanta Hawks:  26-30 (4th place, Southeast Division)

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Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

Atlanta Hawks:  5-5 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 29-27 record overall this season and they are 13-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the New Orleans Pelicans. Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 27 while Jaime Jaquez Jr. was next on the team with 23 points. Davion Mitchell led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 41.2% from the field, 29.8% from 3-point range, and 75.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117.2 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 32-24 this season and their O/U record is 28-28.

The Hawks are entering this game with a 26-30 record overall this season and they are 10-15 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with losses coming against the Charlotte Hornets, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Hornets again, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Philadelphia 76ers still to be played on Thursday night. In their game against the Hornets, Dyson Daniels led the team in points in that game with 21 while Jalen Johnson was next on the team with 19 points. Jalen Johnson led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Jalen Johnson led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 44% from the field, 27.8% from 3-point range, and 76.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 118.6 PPG against them. The Hawks have an ATS record of 26-30 this season and their O/U record is 29-27.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 29-27 record overall which has them right in the middle of the East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 13-16 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Hawks haven't looked great in their games this season with their 26-30 record overall which has them in the bottom half of the East. They haven't looked great on their home court either with their 10-15 home record this season. The Hawks have been struggling a lot this season and they made a lot of moves at the trade deadline. This isn't really a team that is looking to tank, but they have some new faces now and haven't looked that great lately. They were struggling going into the All-Star Break with 3 losses in a row and they are also 5-5 in their last 10 games. They are in a bad situation too since they are on the road in Philadelphia on Thursday night and have to come back home for a back-to-back while the Heat are going to be rested, playing their first game back from the break. The Heat haven't looked that great lately themselves as they are also 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they went into the break off a win over the Pelicans and will be looking to come out of the break with a win too. The Heat are right in the play-in tournament too, but they are still fighting for a top 6 spot so they will be looking to make a statement coming out of the break. The Heat haven't been a great road team this year, but they are catching the Hawks in a bad situation and they still have a lot more talent to take advantage of the Hawks being in this bad situation. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Hawks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, February 20, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 127 Hawks 119.

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Miami Heat: 16-9 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. 24-15 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 22-15 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more. 8-3 OVER off an upset win as an underdog.

Atlanta Hawks: 9-16 ATS in home games. 26-46 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game. 0-7 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. 45-27 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game.

Miami Heat:  T. Herro (SG) Day To Day - Ribs. A. Wiggins (SF) Day To Day - Toe. P. Larsson (SG) Day To Day - Elbow.

Atlanta Hawks:  J. Kuminga (PF) Out - Knee.

“Our guys are always telling him, ‘Hey, dial it back a little bit.’ And we’re always telling him, ‘No, be who you are. Be a total nightmare to guard.’” - Erik Spoelstra on his team’s practices. 

“That was a tough stretch. I don’t know if I would say the game fell apart, but we had to put it back together as best we could. There are stretches and plays like that in games, and you have to endure them.” - Quin Snyder after his team’s loss against the Hornets in their game on Wednesday.

PG Davion Mitchell

SG Norman Powell

SF Jaime Jaquez Jr.

PF Simone Fontecchio

C Bam Adebayo

PG Dyson Daniels

SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker

SF Zaccharie Risacher

PF Jalen Johnson

C Onyeka Okongwu

PPG: Norman Powell (23)

APG: Davion Mitchell (7)

Reb/G: Bam Adebayo (9.9)

PPG: Jalen Johnson (23.3)

APG: Jalen Johnson (8.2)

Reb/G: Jalen Johnson (10.6)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (18th season)

Atlanta Hawks: Quin Snyder (4th season)