by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 16, 2025
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, September 18, 2025
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +12.5, Bills -12.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +11.5, Bills -11.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +12.5, Bills -12.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 0-2 (4th place, AFC East)
Buffalo Bills: 2-0 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game at home against the New England Patriots 33-27.
Buffalo Bills: won their last game on the road against the New York Jets 30-10.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 0-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the New England Patriots 33-27. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 26/32 passes for 315 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 30. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 109 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Tyrel Dodson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Jordyn Brooks, Bradley Chubb, and Chop Robinson each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with a 2-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 30-10. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 14/25 passes for 148 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 132 and 2 TDs. Joshua Palmer led the receivers with 47 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Cole Bishop led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Cole Bishop, Joey Bosa, and DaQuan Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 2-0 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East. They won their season opener with a big comeback win at home against the Ravens, winning 41-40 after trailing by double digits in the 4th quarter, and now they are off a 30-10 road win against the Jets in a divisional game. Their defense looked a lot better in that win over the Jets and their offense has been rolling in both games, they are carrying a lot of momentum into this Thursday night game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a 0-2 record overall this season which has them right at the bottom of the AFC East. They have looked terrible in both games and have been a disaster this season. Their offense looked a lot better last week, but that was against the Patriots who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their defense also made the Patriots offense look good and that is going to be a big issue on the road with limited rest this week when playing against one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Dolphins don't have a good track record going to Buffalo in recent years either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, September 18, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Bills 45 Dolphins 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 4-12 ATS as an underdog. 3-10 ATS as a road underdog. 2-6 ATS on the road after playing a division game. 4-8 ATS on the road after playing a game at home. 9-4 1H OVER versus division opponents.
Buffalo Bills: 9-5 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 8-4 ATS after playing a division game. 11-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 5-1 OVER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: D. Waller (TE) Injured - Hip. I. Melifonwu (S) Injured - Calf. A. Brewer (OG) Injured - Hip. C. Robinson (LB) Injured - Knee. M. Washington (WR) Injured - Thumb. S. Duck (CB) Injured - Ankle. E. Bonner (CB) Injured - Hamstring. B. Jones (DL) Injured - Oblique. J. Wright (RB) Injured - Knee.
Buffalo Bills: C. Lewis (CB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Pectoral. E. Oliver (DL) Injured - Ankle. J. Hancock (CB) Injured - Shoulder. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Quad. S. Thompson (LB) Injured - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“That was really frustrating. It was frustrating with the communication, with the guys inside the huddle and then what the personnel is, then the play for those guys. Do we have too many guys in, why do we have another guy running in? Just the whole operation of that was not up to standard, was not up to par and I’ve got to do a better job with our guys in that sense.” - Tua Tagovailoa after their loss against the Patriots in their last game.
“It was important for us to get off to a good start. And I thought we did that in a complementary way.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Washington, Malik
TE Hill, Julian
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Buffalo Bills
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (429)
Rushing: D. Achane (85)
Receiving: T. Hill (149)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (2)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (542)
Rushing: J. Cook (176)
Receiving: K. Coleman (138)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (3)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
