by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 26, 2025
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Dolphins +7, Falcons -7; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Dolphins +7, Falcons -7; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Dolphins +7.5, Falcons -7.5; Over/Under: 45 points
Season Record
Miami Dolphins: 1-6 (3rd place, AFC East)
Atlanta Falcons: 3-3 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Miami Dolphins: lost their last game on the road against the Cleveland Browns 31-6.
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 20-10.
Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-6 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 0-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Cleveland Browns 31-6. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 12/23 passes for 100 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 82. D'Wayne Eskridge led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Ashtyn Davis led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Tyrel Dodson and Jaelan Phillips each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 20-10. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 21/38 passes for 241 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 40. Darnell Mooney led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jessie Bates III and JD Bertrand each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Zach Harrison led the defense in sacks with 1. Kaden Elliss came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Dolphins vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Falcons listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 3-3 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC South. They are off a 20-10 loss to the 49ers in their last one and they looked terrible in that game, but they were rolling coming into that game. They will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home and they still have one of the best RB's in the NFL to lean on here against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-6 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. They were a disaster coming into the season and they have been a disaster all year too. They are off a 31-6 loss to the Browns in their last one and really couldn't do anything against a good defense. The Falcons didn't look good in their last one, but their defense only gave up 20 points and has still looked great all season. The Dolphins aren't going to get much done on offense against this Falcons defense, but the Dolphins defense has also been terrible. The Browns were able to run it down their throat all game last week and the Falcons are going to do the same here with one of the best RB's in the NFL. This is a great situation for the Falcons to bounce back at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Falcons to cover the spread in this game.
Dolphins Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 26, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Falcons 35 Dolphins 14.
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NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins: 7-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 3-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. 8-3 OVER off a road loss. 13-5 OVER after playing their last game on the road. 9-2 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Atlanta Falcons: 14-25 ATS in all games. 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 5-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 4-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 8-3 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Key Injuries
Miami Dolphins: J. Phillips (DL) Injured - Finger. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Marshall Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Trader Jr. (S) Injured - Shoulder. S. Duck (CB) Injured - Ankle. K. Grant (DL) Injured - Foot. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Injured - Thumb. E. Campbell (CB) Injured - Quadricep. J. Hill (TE) Injured - Ankle. A. Brewer (OG) Injured - Pectoral.
Atlanta Falcons: K. Hodge (WR) Injured - Pectoral. L. Floyd (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. F. Franks (TE) Injured - Calf. T. Allgeier (RB) Injured - Hip. M. Ford Jr. (CB) Injured - Calf. J. Matthews (OT) Injured - Ankle. Z. Harrison (DL) Injured - Knee. D. Deablo (LB) Injured - Forearm. J. Walker (DL) Injured - Groin. B. Bowman Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Fuller (S) Injured - Knee. S. Norton (OG) Injured - Foot. D. Mooney (WR) Injured - Hamstring. M. Penix Jr. (QB) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We did everything we could to lose the game. You saw a lot of frustration from the season seep into our play. I felt like emotional overreactions in the first half were detrimental to us. Four drives were sustained by penalties defensively.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Browns in their last game.
“Anytime you get a chance to throw it to one of your best players, you feel pretty good about it. They made a great play.” - Raheem Morris after his team’s loss against the 49ers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Westbrook-Ikhine, Nick
WR Washington, Malik
TE Waller, Darren
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR London, Drake
WR Washington, Casey
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Penix Jr., Michael
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (1,313)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (472)
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (405)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (6)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (1,409)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (524)
Receiving: Drake London (469)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (4)
Coaches:
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
