by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 13, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Friday, October 17, 2025
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Louisville +13.5, Miami-FL -13.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Louisville +13, Miami-FL -13; Over/Under: 53.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Louisville +13.5, Miami-FL -13.5; Over/Under: 53.5 points
Season Record
Louisville Cardinals: 4-1 (1-1) (7th place, ACC)
Miami Hurricanes: 5-0 (1-0) (2nd place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Louisville Cardinals: lost their last game at home against the Virginia Cavaliers 30-27 in overtime.
Miami Hurricanes: won their last game on the road against the Florida State Seminoles 28-22.
Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes Preview and Analysis
Louisville is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Virginia 30-27 in OT. Miller Moss was the starting QB and he completed 34/48 passes for 329 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Isaac Brown led the team in rushing yards with 66. Chris Bell led the receivers with 170 receiving yards on 12 receptions and 2 TDs. TJ Quinn led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Antonio Watts and Wesley Bailey each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Miami-Florida is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Florida State 28-22. Carson Beck was the starting QB and he completed 20/27 passes for 241 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 40. Malachi Toney led the receivers with 107 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 2 TDs. Akheem Mesidor led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Akheem Mesidor and Jakobe Thomas each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jakobe Thomas and Bryce Fitzgerald each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Louisville vs Miami Prediction
The current betting odds have Miami listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Miami has looked great in their games this season with their 5-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They are ranked inside the top 25 too and even though they have only played 1 conference game, they have been tested by some good out of conference opponents. They are starting to look like one of the best teams in the nation and their defense has shown a ton of improvement from last season. Meanwhile, Louisville has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall, but their 1-1 conference record has them lower in the ACC. They are coming out of their bye week and will be looking to bounce back after losing their last game at home to Virginia, but they didn't look good in that game and they also struggled the week before against Pittsburgh. Louisville has a really good offense that can put up points, but they have struggled more since starting their conference schedule and their defense has also looked a lot worse too. Miami has been rolling all season and they will be looking to beat up on a good team in the conference, adding to their good resume. The best way to place a bet here is on Miami to cover the spread in this game.
Louisville Miami Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, October 17, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Miami 35 Louisville 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Louisville Cardinals: 0-3 ATS off a home loss. 2-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 2-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 20-12 OVER in all lined games. 11-4 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Miami Hurricanes: 11-2 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 19-11 OVER in all lined games. 9-4 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 5-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).
Key Injuries
Louisville Cardinals: T. Egan (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gates (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Wilder (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Folmar (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Clark (LB) Out - Ankle.
Miami Hurricanes: B. Washington Jr. (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Y. Valdes Alfonso (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Scroggins (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Russell (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Robinson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Pringle Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Lowe (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Carver (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Campbell (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Reiman (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“When these things happen, you got to let these wounds sting. You got to let it sting for a while. It’s got to burn. It’s got to really bother you. If it doesn’t bother you, then you shouldn’t be playing football or coaching football.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s loss against UVA in their last game.
“He was on fire. He made a lot of really, really good plays. His leadership, the way he pours into preparation, into his teammates. Everything about him, it screams winner. We’re glad he’s on our side.” - Mario Cristobal after his team’s win against FSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Louisville Cardinals
WR Hurry, TreyShun
WR Bell, Chris
WR Lacy, Caullin
TE Kurisky, Nate
QB Moss, Miller
RB Brown, Isaac
Miami Hurricanes
WR Marion, Keelan
WR Daniels, CJ
WR Toney, Malachi
TE Bauman, Alex
QB Beck, Carson
RB Fletcher Jr., Mark
Statistical Leaders
Louisville Cardinals
Passing: Miller Moss (1,358)
Rushing: Isaac Brown (334)
Receiving: Chris Bell (502)
Touchdowns: Chris Bell (4)
Miami Hurricanes
Passing: Carson Beck (1,213)
Rushing: Mark Fletcher Jr. (428)
Receiving: Malachi Toney (375)
Touchdowns: Mark Fletcher Jr. (5)
Coaches:
Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (3rd season)
Miami Hurricanes: Mario Cristobal (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
