by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 12, 2025
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Chargers -4.5, Dolphins +4.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Chargers -4, Dolphins +4; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Chargers -4.5, Dolphins +4.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Los Angeles Chargers: 3-2 (1st place, AFC West)
Miami Dolphins: 1-4 (3rd place, AFC East)
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Los Angeles Chargers: lost their last game at home against the Washington Commanders 27-10.
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 27-24.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Chargers are entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Washington Commanders 27-10. Justin Herbert was the starting QB and he completed 22/29 passes for 166 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Justin Herbert led the team in rushing yards with 60. Keenan Allen led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Troy Dye led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Justin Eboigbe led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-4 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 27-24. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 27/36 passes for 256 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 16. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 110 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Minkah Fitzpatrick led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb each led the defense in sacks with 1. Minkah Fitzpatrick came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Chargers vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chargers listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chargers have looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC West. They started the season 3-0 and have lost 2 games in a row now, but they will be looking to bounce back and this is another bad team that they can beat up on. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 1-4 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. They looked like they started to have some life when they picked up their first win of the season over the Jets, but all of that momentum went down the drain in their last one with a road loss to the Panthers. They blew a 17-0 lead in that game too and they have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. The Chargers haven't looked right on offense lately, but they were great in their first 3 games of the season and this is a defense that they are going to be able to torch down the field. The Chargers haven't looked great on defense lately, but they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL and they are due for a bounce back game here. The Dolphins don't have a bad offense, but they have stalled at times and the loss of Tyreek Hill is going to have a big impact. This is a great situation for the Chargers to get right against a Dolphins team that has struggled all season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chargers to cover the spread in this game.
Chargers Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 12, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Chargers 24 Dolphins 16.
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NFL Betting Trends
Los Angeles Chargers: 4-1 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 5-1 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 24-15 UNDER in all games. 8-3 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Miami Dolphins: 5-12 ATS as an underdog. 2-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 2-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 yards/game or more. 5-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. 7-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers: K. Allen (WR) Injured - Rest. B. Dupree (LB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Perryman (LB) Injured - Ankle. D. Hand (DL) Injured - Groin. M. Becton (OG) Injured - Hand. J. Taylor (CB) Injured - Illness. J. Salyer (OG) Injured - Knee. D. Davis (WR) Injured - Knee. T. Pipkins III (OG) Injured - Knee. Q. Johnston (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Alt (OT) Injured - Ankle.
Miami Dolphins: T. Dodson (LB) Injured - Concussion. D. Waller (TE) Injured - Hip. L. Borom (OG) Injured - Thumb. A. Brewer (OG) Injured - Pectoral. E. Campbell (CB) Injured - Quadricep. S. Duck (CB) Injured - Ankle. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Injured - Hip. C. Wilson Jr. (WR) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We've got to tighten up the operation in every way.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s loss against the Commanders in their last game.
“I think we were outgained by 200 yards in the run game. That is not good enough. You’ll rarely win — if ever.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Los Angeles Chargers
WR Johnston, Quentin
WR Allen, Keenan
WR McConkey, Ladd
TE Gadsden, Oronde
QB Herbert, Justin
RB Haskins, Hassan
FB Matlock, Scott
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Westbrook-Ikhine, Nick
WR Washington, Malik
TE Waller, Darren
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: Justin Herbert (1,229)
Rushing: Omarion Hampton (314)
Receiving: Quentin Johnston (377)
Touchdowns: Quentin Johnston (4)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (1,008)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (262)
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (295)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (4)
Coaches:
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (2nd season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
