by Team Del Genio
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025Logan Webb went into his July 11th showdown with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the middle of perhaps the best season of his career.
The right-hander had an 8-6 record with a 2.62 era and 1.16 whip in his eighteen starts. He has always been an extreme ground ball pitcher, and opposing hitters are settling for grounders in 54.4% of the batted balls against him, ranking in the highest 91st percentile. The 28-year-old is striking out 27.2% of the hitters he has faced, which is his highest mark in his career. When over 80% of plate appearances end in a strikeout or a grounder, good things are going to happen.
Webb had increased the use of his fastball cutter, which is not a great pitch in itself, yet it is the perfect complement to his elite two-seam fastball and curveball that usually end up low in the strike zone. Left-handed sluggers like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman were beginning to extend their arms and tee off on either that two-seamer or changeup. Webb’s cutter initially looks like one of those pitches, yet doesn’t drop. Cutters are supposed to break to the glove side from right-handers, yet Webb’s cutter moves to the arm side of the catch. It still works for him because hitters are wary of the drop from the two-seamer or change-up.
What was interesting about Webb was that he was having this great year despite opposing hitters posting a .330 batting average on the batted balls against him. Webb’s babip has also been higher than league averages. His career babip is .311, which is about 0.020 higher than this year’s MLB babip average of .289. That .328 number should go down.
The Dodgers are a tough assignment for anyone, especially right-handed pitchers who have to deal with left-handed sluggers Ohtani and Freeman. Webb gave up a two-run homer to Ohtani yet those were the only runs he had given up through five innings. His sweeper was more effective in this appearance than it had been recently. Yet he could not get out of the sixth inning as he gave up four runs and got only one out before getting pulled.
Three days later, Webb pitched in the All-Star game, where he did not give up a run in his one inning. He did give up a base hit.
His next outing was on Sunday in another tough assignment at Toronto against the Blue Jays. It had been eight days since his last start. He allowed four runs in six innings, yet gave up 11 base hits, starting a disturbing trend. He did not have a feel for either his sweeper or cutter. Without those pitches, his reliable off-speed pitches revert back to his sinker/change-up combo, which left-handed hitters can exploit.
Webb had a date with the New York Mets on July 26th. He struggled in that start, once again not having his cutter or sweeper as an effective pitch. He gave up eight hits and six runs in only four innings of work.
That left Webb with a 9.41 era and a 1.83 whip in his last three starts. Facing the murderer’s row of the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Mets certainly did not help matters. He could make the excuse that the All-Star break broke him out of his rhythm. Yet the specific pitch data indicated he had lost the cutter and sweeper, with the former pitch being what unlocked his outstanding start of the season.
Webb’s final start of the month was at home against Pittsburgh yesterday (July 30th). Pitching in four days' rest seemed to work again with him as he struck 11 batters and gave up one earned run in 5 2/3 innings. Yet, he was facing the Pirates. Looking closer at his pitch results, he still didn’t have his cutter working. He did get 11 whiffs from his 42 pitches with his change-up. He punched out four batters with his sweeper, and he got eight called strikes from his 19 sweepers against left-handed batters. Yet he registered a strike in less than 60% of his sweepers.
Webb begins August with a 9-8 record with a 3.31 era and a 1.25 whip. Giving all those base hits last month has made his whip simply ordinary. He is only walking 5.8% of opposing hitters, ranking in the top 87th percentile. His strikeout rate is down to 26.3%, ranking in the top 77th percentile. His ground ball rate is down to 52.7% of the batted balls against him, which is still very good but now in the 89th percentile. However, his babip has risen by .015 to .340. It is difficult to expect that number to remain so high.
It was not his best month. Monitoring the effectiveness of his sweeper and cutter will be important. If he still lacks the feel of those pitches, then his profile projects as it has in the last few seasons as a very good yet not elite starting pitcher. But if he begins to find that cutter, in particular, there could be some value in backing him, even in the most difficult of assignments.
Good luck - TDG.
The right-hander had an 8-6 record with a 2.62 era and 1.16 whip in his eighteen starts. He has always been an extreme ground ball pitcher, and opposing hitters are settling for grounders in 54.4% of the batted balls against him, ranking in the highest 91st percentile. The 28-year-old is striking out 27.2% of the hitters he has faced, which is his highest mark in his career. When over 80% of plate appearances end in a strikeout or a grounder, good things are going to happen.
Webb had increased the use of his fastball cutter, which is not a great pitch in itself, yet it is the perfect complement to his elite two-seam fastball and curveball that usually end up low in the strike zone. Left-handed sluggers like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman were beginning to extend their arms and tee off on either that two-seamer or changeup. Webb’s cutter initially looks like one of those pitches, yet doesn’t drop. Cutters are supposed to break to the glove side from right-handers, yet Webb’s cutter moves to the arm side of the catch. It still works for him because hitters are wary of the drop from the two-seamer or change-up.
What was interesting about Webb was that he was having this great year despite opposing hitters posting a .330 batting average on the batted balls against him. Webb’s babip has also been higher than league averages. His career babip is .311, which is about 0.020 higher than this year’s MLB babip average of .289. That .328 number should go down.
The Dodgers are a tough assignment for anyone, especially right-handed pitchers who have to deal with left-handed sluggers Ohtani and Freeman. Webb gave up a two-run homer to Ohtani yet those were the only runs he had given up through five innings. His sweeper was more effective in this appearance than it had been recently. Yet he could not get out of the sixth inning as he gave up four runs and got only one out before getting pulled.
Three days later, Webb pitched in the All-Star game, where he did not give up a run in his one inning. He did give up a base hit.
His next outing was on Sunday in another tough assignment at Toronto against the Blue Jays. It had been eight days since his last start. He allowed four runs in six innings, yet gave up 11 base hits, starting a disturbing trend. He did not have a feel for either his sweeper or cutter. Without those pitches, his reliable off-speed pitches revert back to his sinker/change-up combo, which left-handed hitters can exploit.
Webb had a date with the New York Mets on July 26th. He struggled in that start, once again not having his cutter or sweeper as an effective pitch. He gave up eight hits and six runs in only four innings of work.
That left Webb with a 9.41 era and a 1.83 whip in his last three starts. Facing the murderer’s row of the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Mets certainly did not help matters. He could make the excuse that the All-Star break broke him out of his rhythm. Yet the specific pitch data indicated he had lost the cutter and sweeper, with the former pitch being what unlocked his outstanding start of the season.
Webb’s final start of the month was at home against Pittsburgh yesterday (July 30th). Pitching in four days' rest seemed to work again with him as he struck 11 batters and gave up one earned run in 5 2/3 innings. Yet, he was facing the Pirates. Looking closer at his pitch results, he still didn’t have his cutter working. He did get 11 whiffs from his 42 pitches with his change-up. He punched out four batters with his sweeper, and he got eight called strikes from his 19 sweepers against left-handed batters. Yet he registered a strike in less than 60% of his sweepers.
Webb begins August with a 9-8 record with a 3.31 era and a 1.25 whip. Giving all those base hits last month has made his whip simply ordinary. He is only walking 5.8% of opposing hitters, ranking in the top 87th percentile. His strikeout rate is down to 26.3%, ranking in the top 77th percentile. His ground ball rate is down to 52.7% of the batted balls against him, which is still very good but now in the 89th percentile. However, his babip has risen by .015 to .340. It is difficult to expect that number to remain so high.
It was not his best month. Monitoring the effectiveness of his sweeper and cutter will be important. If he still lacks the feel of those pitches, then his profile projects as it has in the last few seasons as a very good yet not elite starting pitcher. But if he begins to find that cutter, in particular, there could be some value in backing him, even in the most difficult of assignments.
Good luck - TDG.
