Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/11/2026

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 11, 2026

Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Raiders +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under:  45.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Raiders +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under:  45.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Raiders +3.5, Patriots -3.5; Over/Under:  45 points

Las Vegas Raiders:  3-1 (2nd place, AFC West)

New England Patriots:  2-2 (2nd place, AFC East)

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Las Vegas Raiders:  lost their last game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs 30-27.

New England Patriots:  won their last game on the road against the Buffalo Bills 29-26.

The Raiders are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 30-27. Kirk Cousins was the starting QB and he completed 31/52 passes for 365 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Ashton Jeanty led the team in rushing yards with 58. Brock Bowers led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Hezekiah Masses led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while Quay Walker led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Patriots are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 29-26. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 22/37 passes for 269 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Drake Maye led the team in rushing yards with 54. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Robert Spillane led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles while Elijah Ponder led the defense in sacks with 1. Craig Woodson came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the AFC East. They have looked a lot better on their home field too with their 1-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders have looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC West. They have been a great road team too with their 2-0 road record this year. The Raiders finally took their 1st loss of the season last week against the Chiefs 30-27. They still looked good in that game and were right in it all day, but they came so close to taking down the monster in their division and now this is a tough game for them to bring their best effort for. The Patriots have looked terrible to start the season and Drake Maye has looked like one of the worst QB's in the NFL, but he finally got the ball rolling again last week. They are coming off a 29-26 road win over the Bills who were undefeated at the time and the Patriots played their best game of the season. That was the game that really sparked their run last season too, so they will be able to carry over that momentum into this one. The Patriots also won their only home game this season against the Steelers, having full control of that game from start to finish, and they are going to be coming for some revenge here since one of their few losses last season was a home loss to the Raiders early in the year. Look for the Patriots to continue rolling at home here now that they have some momentum on their side and take advantage of a Raiders team that is starting to come back down to Earth. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game. 

Raiders Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 11, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 24 Raiders 20.

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Las Vegas Raiders: 10-24 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 24-45 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 16-30 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. 41-27 OVER against AFC East division opponents. 7-3 OVER off a loss against a division rival.

New England Patriots: 29-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 7-2 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 5-1 OVER after a 2 game road trip. 11-2 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 

Las Vegas Raiders:  J. Powers-Johnson (OG) Injured - Groin. D. Thornton Jr. (WR) Injured - Hamstring. C. White (WR) Injured - Ankle. T. Zuhn III (OG) Injured - Knee. B. Bowers (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Burford (OG) Injured - Knee. F. Fatukasi (DL) Injured - Shoulder. A. Jeanty (RB) Injured - Ankle. J. Nailor (WR) Injured - Concussion. S. Olubi (LB) Injured - Wrist.

New England Patriots:  C. Barmore (DL) Injured - Shoulder. C. Canada (CB) Injured - Hamstring. C. Davis III (CB) Injured - Neck. C. Elliss (LB) Injured - Chest. R. Gilliam (FB) Injured - Ankle. C. Gonzalez (CB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Hollins (WR) Injured - Calf. D. Jones (LB) Injured - Shoulder. D. Maye (QB) Injured - Shoulder. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Foot. K. Prunty (CB) Injured - Hamstring. B. Schooler (S) Injured - Back. R. Stevenson (RB) Injured - Knee. C. Woods (CB) Injured - Shoulder. C. Woodson (S) Injured - Shoulder.

“We've got to find that answer. That will be a big factor in us being a better football team.” - Klint Kubiak after his team’s loss against the Chiefs in their last game. 

“Gets us back in the race. Josh (Allen) was unbelievable. Felt like Drake went toe to toe with him.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the Bills in their last game. 

WR Nailor, Jalen

WR White, Cody

WR Tucker, Tre

TE Bowers, Brock

QB Cousins, Kirk

RB Jeanty, Ashton

FB Heyward, Connor

WR Doubs, Romeo

WR Hollins, Mack

WR Douglas, DeMario

TE Henry, Hunter

QB Maye, Drake

RB Stevenson, Rhamondre

FB Gilliam, Reggie

Passing: Kirk Cousins (1,026)

Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (264)

Receiving: Tre Tucker (233)

Touchdowns: Cody White (3)

Passing: Drake Maye (854)

Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (163)

Receiving: Mack Hollins (209)

Touchdowns: Romeo Doubs (2)

Coaches:

Las Vegas Raiders: Klint Kubiak (1st season)

New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (2nd season)