by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 5, 2025
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Raiders +6, Colts -6; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Raiders +6.5, Colts -6.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Raiders +7, Colts -7; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
Las Vegas Raiders: 1-3 (4th place, AFC West)
Indianapolis Colts: 3-1 (1st place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Las Vegas Raiders: lost their last game at home against the Chicago Bears 25-24.
Indianapolis Colts: lost their last game on the road against the Los Angeles Rams 27-20.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
The Raiders are entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 25-24. Geno Smith was the starting QB and he completed 14/21 passes for 117 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Ashton Jeanty led the team in rushing yards with 138 and 1 TD. Brock Bowers led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Devin White led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Tyree Wilson led the defense in sacks with 1. Maxx Crosby came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Colts are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Los Angeles Rams 27-20. Daniel Jones was the starting QB and he completed 24/33 passes for 262 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 76. Adonai Mitchell led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Nick Cross led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Mekhi Blackmon and Laiatu Latu each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Raiders vs Colts Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 6 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts have looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right in the race for the AFC South this year. They are off their first loss of the season, losing on the road 27-20, but they still looked really good in that game as they beat themselves. They had a chance to win that one but continually shot themselves in the foot, now they will be looking to bounce back at home though and they have been beating up on bad teams all year. Meanwhile, the Raiders have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the AFC West. They won their season opener on the road against the Patriots, but they have lost 3 games in a row now and have no momentum on their side. They are off a bad home loss to the Bears in their last one, losing 25-24, and that was a game they should have won, but they continue to make costly mistakes in their games. They have had a big issue with turning the ball over all season and Geno Smith just hasn't played at the level he needs to be at. This is a get right game at home for a much better Colts team coming off their first loss of the season in a game they should have won. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Raiders Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 5, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 35 Raiders 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Las Vegas Raiders: 4-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 23-31 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 26-17 OVER against AFC South division opponents. 29-17 1H OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.
Indianapolis Colts: 10-5 ATS as a favorite. 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 18-9 ATS against conference opponents. 5-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 18-8 OVER against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: E. Stokes (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Shorter (WR) Injured - Illness. M. Mayer (TE) Injured - Concussion. D. Richardson (CB) Injured - Hamstring. B. Bowers (TE) Injured - Knee. B. Jackson (LB) Injured - Foot.
Indianapolis Colts: K. Moore II (CB) Injured - Achilles. X. Howard (CB) Injured - Personal. Z. Franklin (LB) Injured - Ankle. D. Scott (S) Injured - Knee. A. Pierce (WR) Injured - Concussion. T. Goodson (RB) Injured - Groin. M. Goncalves (OG) Injured - Toe.
Notable Quotes
“The guys deserved to get this win, and I let those guys down. There’s a lot of things I’m going to have to fix within myself, and that’s the reality. I’m not going to sugarcoat it, I got to be a lot better and I am a lot better, but it hasn’t shown up.” - Geno Smith after their loss against the Bears in their last game.
“Obviously, we hurt ourselves in a lot of situations with penalties. We've got to take care of the football, and that starts with me.” - Shane Steichen after his team’s loss against the LA Rams in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Las Vegas Raiders
WR Thornton Jr., Dont'e
WR Tucker, Tre
WR Meyers, Jakobi
TE Bowers, Brock
QB Smith, Geno
RB Jeanty, Ashton
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Mitchell, Adonai
WR Downs, Josh
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Jones, Daniel
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
Las Vegas Raiders
Passing: Geno Smith (948)
Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (282)
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers (258)
Touchdowns: Tre Tucker (4)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: Daniel Jones (1,078)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (414)
Receiving: Tyler Warren (263)
Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor (4)
Coaches:
Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll (1st season)
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
