Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/06/2025

Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Monday, October 6, 2025

Venue:  EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN, ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -3.5, Jaguars +3.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -3.5, Jaguars +3.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Chiefs -3.5, Jaguars +3.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Kansas City Chiefs:  2-2 (2nd place, AFC West)

Jacksonville Jaguars:  3-1 (2nd place, AFC South)

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Kansas City Chiefs:  won their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 37-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars:  won their last game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 26-21.

The Chiefs are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 37-20. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 25/37 passes for 270 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Xavier Worthy led the team in rushing yards with 38. Xavier Worthy led the receivers with 83 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Drue Tranquill led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while George Karlaftis and Jerry Tillery each led the defense in sacks with 1. Leo Chenal came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Jaguars are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 26-21. Trevor Lawrence was the starting QB and he completed 21/31 passes for 174 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Travis Etienne Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 124 and 1 TD. Brian Thomas Jr. led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Devin Lloyd led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Arik Armstead led the defense in sacks with 1. Devin Lloyd came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They got blown out in the Super Bowl last season by the Eagles and had a very slow start to this season, going 0-2, but now they have won 2 games in a row and have some momentum on their side. They still didn't look quite right in their first win of the season over the Giants, but they looked back in their last one with a 37-20 win over the Ravens. Their offense looked a lot better in that game as they have been getting healthier lately, and they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have looked great in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC South. They are off a nice road win over the 49ers in their last one and their defense has looked great this season, but this isn't a great situation for them to be in. They got a big road win in San Francisco and are coming back across the country to play a much better team. The Chiefs have been starting to ramp up lately and they are going to be slowed down by the Jaguars in prime time. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. 

Chiefs Jaguars Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Monday, October 6, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 28 Jaguars 17.

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Kansas City Chiefs: 6-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 5-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 8-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 27-18 UNDER in all games. 8-1 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 11-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-4 ATS off a road win. 19-30 ATS at home as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 17-32 ATS in October games at home. 6-2 UNDER as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 11-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 

Kansas City Chiefs:  None.

Jacksonville Jaguars:  None.

“These two teams, I mean, the competition — you love it. That's why we play this game.” - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the Ravens in their last game. 

“Even when negative things start to occur and we stalled on offense in ways, the defense makes a play. Boom. Then the punt return for a touchdown. These guys keep having each other’s backs. I think that’s what’s pretty cool after four weeks.” - Liam Coen after his team’s win against the 49ers in their last game. 

WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu

WR Worthy, Xavier

WR Brown, Hollywood

TE Kelce, Travis

QB Mahomes, Patrick

RB Pacheco, Isiah

WR Thomas Jr., Brian

WR Washington, Parker

WR Hunter, Travis

TE Strange, Brenton

QB Lawrence, Trevor 

RB Etienne Jr., Travis

Passing: Patrick Mahomes (939)

Rushing: Patrick Mahomes (130)

Receiving: Hollywood Brown (209)

Touchdowns: Tyquan Thornton (3)

Passing: Trevor Lawrence (845)

Rushing: Travis Etienne Jr. (394)

Receiving: Brenton Strange (182)

Touchdowns: Travis Etienne Jr. (3)

Coaches:

Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (13th season)

Jacksonville Jaguars: Liam Coen (1st season)