by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 29, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: ISU -1.5, Cincinnati +1.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: ISU -1, Cincinnati +1; Over/Under: 52 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: ISU -1, Cincinnati +1; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Season Record
Iowa State Cyclones: 5-0 (2-0) (1st place, Big 12)
Cincinnati Bearcats: 3-1 (1-0) (6th place, Big 12)
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Recent Form
Iowa State Cyclones: won their last game at home against the Arizona Wildcats 39-14.
Cincinnati Bearcats: won their last game on the road against the Kansas Jayhawks 37-34.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Cincinnati Bearcats Preview and Analysis
Iowa State is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Arizona 39-14. Rocco Becht was the starting QB and he completed 14/20 passes for 243 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Carson Hansen led the team in rushing yards with 63 and 2 TDs. Chase Sowell led the receivers with 146 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jamison Patton led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Trey Verdon led the defense in sacks with 1. Jamison Patton and Jontez Williams each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Cincinnati is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Kansas 37-34. Brendan Sorsby was the starting QB and he completed 29/43 passes for 388 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Evan Pryor led the team in rushing yards with 90. Cyrus Allen led the receivers with 128 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 2 TDs. Jake Golday led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Antwan Peek Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati Prediction
The current betting odds have Iowa State listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Iowa State has looked great in their games this season with their 5-0 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big 12. They are ranked inside the top 25 and they are looking like the team to beat in the Big 12 this year early on. They are off a 39-14 win over Arizona in their last one and they continue to find ways to win games whether it is in low scoring defensive games or high scoring shootouts. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 conference record too. They are off a 37-34 win on the road over Kansas in their last one and that was a huge win for them. Cincinnati has a really good offense this year led by a solid QB in Sorsby, but the defense isn't great and they are going to give up points to this offense. They also struggled against a better defense with their only loss this season coming to Nebraska and this Iowa State defense hasn't been giving up many points this year. Cincinnati is off a big win over Kansas, but this is a bit of a let down for them after such a big road win and their defense is still going to be a big issue in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on Iowa State to cover the spread in this game.
Iowa State Cincinnati Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Iowa State 27 Cincinnati 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Iowa State Cyclones: 7-4 ATS in road lined games. 6-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 4-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 8-4 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 5-1 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 5-10 ATS in home lined games. 6-12 ATS against conference opponents. 3-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 6-3 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 5-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att.
Key Injuries
Iowa State Cyclones: J. Cooper (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Malone (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Gilbert (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Konrardy (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Lemos (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Ellens (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Tompkins (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Parkes (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Jackson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jackson (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Coffey (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Hasert (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Brookins (WR) Out - Undisclosed.
Cincinnati Bearcats: R. Casanova (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Early (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Holcomb (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Biglin (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Robinson (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Nunn (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Woodburn (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Q. Staten (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Logan (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Roetherford (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Corleone (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“His ability to take things to another level is super impressive. I'm excited for him after watching him put this much time and effort in and to see those moments come his way.” - Matt Campbell after his team’s win against Arizona in their last game.
“Throughout the game, it just becomes frustrating when you make a play, and all of a sudden, here comes the flag. I'm just really proud of the guys to be able to finish the game off like we did. We’ve come so close for the last couple of years in these types of type of games.” - Scott Satterfield after his team’s win against Kansas in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Iowa State Cyclones
WR Sowell, Chase
WR Eskildsen, Brett
WR Overby, Dominic
TE Burkle, Gabe
TE Brahmer, Benjamin
QB Becht, Rocco
RB Hansen, Carson
Cincinnati Bearcats
WR Caldwell, Jeff
WR Goodie, Caleb
WR Allen, Cyrus
TE Royer, Joe
QB Sorsby, Brendan
RB Pryor, Evan
Statistical Leaders
Iowa State Cyclones
Passing: Rocco Becht (1,103)
Rushing: Carson Hansen (315)
Receiving: Brett Eskildsen (216)
Touchdowns: Rocco Becht (5)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Passing: Brendan Sorsby (1,043)
Rushing: Brendan Sorsby (227)
Receiving: Cyrus Allen (273)
Touchdowns: Cyrus Allen (5)
Coaches:
Iowa State Cyclones: Matt Campbell (10th season)
Cincinnati Bearcats: Scott Satterfield (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
