by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 29, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Venue: Ross–Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Where to Watch: Big Ten Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Illinois -8.5, Purdue +8.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Illinois -8.5, Purdue +8.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Illinois -8.5, Purdue +8.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Illinois Fighting Illini: 4-1 (1-1) (8th place, Big Ten)
Purdue Boilermakers: 2-2 (0-1) (16th place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Illinois Fighting Illini: won their last game at home against the USC Trojans 34-32.
Purdue Boilermakers: lost their last game on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 56-30.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers Preview and Analysis
Illinois is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against USC 34-32. Luke Altmyer was the starting QB and he completed 20/26 passes for 328 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kaden Feagin led the team in rushing yards with 60. Collin Dixon led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Miles Scott led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while James Thompson Jr. and Gabe Jacas each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. Dylan Rosiek came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Purdue is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Notre Dame 56-30. Ryan Browne was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 250 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Malachi Singleton led the team in rushing yards with 26. Nitro Tuggle led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Myles Slusher led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Myles Slusher led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction
The current betting odds have Illinois listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 in the nation. They have a 1-1 conference record which has them in the middle of the Big Ten, losing big at Indiana 63-10, but they bounced back last week with a nice home win over a ranked USC team. That win is going to give them some momentum after that embarrassment the week before and their offense has been rolling in most of their games this season. Meanwhile, Purdue hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall and their 0-1 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They are off a 56-30 loss to Notre Dame in their last one and their offense hasn't looked terrible this year with their new head coach fixing some things in that area, but the defense has been a big issue. They have been giving up a ton of points all year and they aren't going to have a great game against this Illinois offense either. Purdue is still one of the worst teams in the Big Ten too so they don't have the kind of talent that a team like Illinois has, and it will show in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game.
Illinois Purdue Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Illinois 35 Purdue 19.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini: 16-7 ATS in all lined games. 6-3 ATS as a favorite. 6-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 9-5 ATS after playing a game at home. 6-2 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Purdue Boilermakers: 9-19 ATS in all lined games. 6-14 ATS as an underdog. 3-8 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 6-13 ATS against conference opponents. 6-3 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).
Key Injuries
Illinois Fighting Illini: D. Brown (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Elzy (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Clawson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. X. Scott (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Knapik (OG) Questionable - Knee. L. Zardzin (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Farrell (TE) Out - Undisclosed. T. Cox (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Forster (RB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hirdes (OG) Out - Knee. G. Smith (TE) Out - Undisclosed.
Purdue Boilermakers: D. Morrissette (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Magwood (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Grimmett (TE) Questionable - Foot. J. Hall (WR) Out - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“I turned around and looked at Luke before our final drive. He gave me a head nod. That’s all I needed to see." - Bret Bielema after his team’s win against USC in their last game.
“I thought our offense gave us a chance to win. That kickoff return (by Price) really hurt us. We can’t allow that to happen. I’m disappointed that we in get into a game of this magnitude and we didn’t play our best ball.” - Barry Odom after his team’s loss against Notre Dame in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Clement, Hudson
WR Elzy, Malik
WR Dixon, Collin
TE Arkin, Tanner
TE Stoffel, Davin
QB Altmyer, Luke
RB Laughery, Aidan
Purdue Boilermakers
WR Tuggle, Nitro
WR Horton Jr., EJ
WR Jackson III, Michael
TE Burhenn, George
QB Browne, Ryan
RB Mockobee, Devin
Statistical Leaders
Illinois Fighting Illini
Passing: Luke Altmyer (1,183)
Rushing: Kaden Feagin (300)
Receiving: Hank Beatty (383)
Touchdowns: Justin Bowick (4)
Purdue Boilermakers
Passing: Ryan Browne (1,036)
Rushing: Devin Mockobee (246)
Receiving: Michael Jackson III (211)
Touchdowns: Devin Mockobee (3)
Coaches:
Illinois Fighting Illini: Bret Bielema (5th season)
Purdue Boilermakers: Barry Odom (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
