Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/11/2026

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rockets +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  227.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rockets +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  227.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rockets +5.5, Nuggets -5.5; Over/Under:  228.5 points

Houston Rockets:  39-24 (2nd place, Southwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  39-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Houston Rockets:  6-4 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  4-6 last 10

The Rockets are entering this game with a 39-24 record overall this season and they are 18-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the San Antonio Spurs, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Toronto Raptors still to be played on Tuesday night. In their game against the Spurs, Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson each led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard each were next on the team with 17 points. Amen Thompson led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Amen Thompson led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 48.3% from the field, 28.6% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.9 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 28-35 this season and their O/U record is 28-34-1.

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 39-26 record overall this season and they are 17-13 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the New York Knicks and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 32 while Tim Hardaway Jr. was next on the team with 28 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 13 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 45.9% from the field, 40.5% from 3-point range, and 72.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.6 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 36-29 this season and their O/U record is 41-24.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nuggets have looked good in their games this season with their 39-26 record overall which has them in the top half of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 17-13 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Rockets have looked good in their games this season with their 39-24 record overall which has them in the top half of the West. They have been a good road team too with their 18-16 road record this year. The Nuggets haven't been at their best on their home court this year and have been a better road team this season, but the Rockets haven't been at their best on the road this season either. The Rockets are the hotter team right now as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they aren't in a great situation here. The Rockets are off a terrible loss to the Spurs in their last one and they will be looking to bounce back, but they still have an easier game at home against the Raptors the night before to get that bounce back win, but they will have to go on the road on a back-to-back for this game. The Nuggets haven't looked that great lately as they are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have lost 2 games in a row now, but they are in a similar situation where they will be looking to bounce back. They took a really bad loss to the Knicks by almost 40 points in their last home game and they almost bounced back in their last one, losing on the road to the Thunder by 3 points, but now they are back at home and will be extra motivated here. Look for the Nuggets to take advantage of a Rockets team in a bad situation and get their bounce back win at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Rockets Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, March 11, 2026 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 125 Rockets 115.

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Houston Rockets: 28-35 ATS in all games. 26-34 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more. 1-4 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season. 9-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). 

Denver Nuggets: 9-5 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 19-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 28-21 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% of their shots or more. 9-5 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).

Houston Rockets:  J. Tate (SF) Out - Knee. S. Adams (C) Out For Season - Ankle. F. VanVleet (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Denver Nuggets:  P. Watson (SF) Out - Hamstring.

“It was nonexistent, honestly, in every way. Lacked any kind of physicality or toughness just to stay in front of your guy. Just blow-by, blow-by, and that’s going to collapse the defense and get to those kickout threes.” - Ime Udoka after his team’s loss against the Spurs in their game on Sunday.

“We threw a lot at him. Aaron came to trap him, but he went away from the trap. He had a hell of a shot, I mean, the stepback to his right, you can’t foul him, and I thought it was well contested. We just watched it.” - David Adelman after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in their game on Monday.

PG Amen Thompson

SG Tari Eason

SF Kevin Durant

PF Jabari Smith Jr.

C Alperen Sengun

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Cameron Johnson

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: Kevin Durant (26.1)

APG: Alperen Sengun (6.1)

Reb/G: Alperen Sengun (9)

PPG: Nikola Jokic (28.9)

APG: Nikola Jokic (10.3)

Reb/G: Nikola Jokic (12.5)

Coaches:

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (3rd season)

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (2nd season)