Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2026

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Saturday, July 11, 2026

Venue:  Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Rangers -125; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Rangers -125; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Rangers -125; Over/Under:  8 runs

Houston Astros:  46-49 (3rd place, AL West)

Texas Rangers:  47-46 (1st place, AL West)

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Houston Astros:  5-5 last 10

Texas Rangers:  6-4 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-49 record overall and have a road record of 23-25. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rangers on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Hunter Brown is their starting pitcher on Friday while Peter Lambert is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-5 with a 3.26 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 6 SO on 3 hits through 5.2 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rangers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-46 record overall and have a home record of 22-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .714 OPS. Cal Quantrill is their starting pitcher on Friday while Kumar Rocker is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-7 with a 3.95 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4.1 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros haven't looked great in their games this season with their 46-49 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-25 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Rangers have looked good in their games this season with their 47-46 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 22-21 home record this season. The Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have been getting hot lately while the Astros are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but the Astros have also been one of the hottest teams in MLB over the last month and they have the better pitching matchup in this one too. Lambert is on the mound for the Astros in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 7-5 with a 3.26 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs this year. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs which has been a common theme for him lately, and the team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting too. The Rangers are going with Rocker in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 2-7 with a 3.95 ERA and he has been really up and down as a starter all year. His team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Astros are going to take advantage of this pitching matchup and they also have the better offense to give them the edge in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Astros Rangers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 11, 2026 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Astros 3 Rangers 1.

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Houston Astros: 122-93 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season. 159-134 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 145-124 (+13.8 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 9-3 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

Texas Rangers: 206-211 (-20.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 61-69 (-19.4 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 159-155 (-8.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 29-22 OVER vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season.

Houston Astros:  K. Teng (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Calf. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Sousa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Texas Rangers:  J. Junis (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. C. Seager (SS) Ten Day IL - Back. C. Freeman (3B) Ten Day IL - Disc. J. Leiter (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. M. Helman (CF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Beeks (RP) Ten Day IL - Back. D. Jansen (C) Ten Day IL - Forearm. R. Garcia (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Baumler (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. C. Bradford (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Montgomery (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Just grateful to be part of his journey. I watched him compete at a high level for a long time and help us win a championship. He’s super competitive on the mound and is one of the best right-handed pitchers that I’ve been around.” - Joe Espada on Justin Verlander’s retirement announcement after his team’s loss against the Nationals in their game on Wednesday.

“There's a lot of credit to our training staff for getting him back in such a fast time. They put a lot of work in. You trust the player, trust the training staff, and the training staff did an amazing job with him. That last at-bat was crucial. Obviously, we don't win that game without Wyatt Langford, but there were great at-bats all day long. Having Wyatt back just makes our lineup different. [Josh Jung], too.” - Skip Schumaker after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Thursday.

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Cam Smith (R) RF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Brice Matthews (R) CF

Zach Dezenzo (R) LF

Nick Allen (R) SS

Justin Foscue (R) 2B

Wyatt Langford (R) DH

Brandon Nimmo (L) RF

Josh Jung (R) 3B

Jake Burger (R) 1B

Ezequiel Duran (R) SS

Kyle Higashioka (R) C

Cam Cauley (R) CF

Alejandro Osuna (L) LF

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.310)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (105)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (29)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (67)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (9)

Wins:  Spencer Arrighetti (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (10)

ERA:  Miguel Ullola (0.00)

Batting Average:  Nicky Lopez (.330)

Hits:  Josh Jung (97)

Home Runs:  Jake Burger (15)

RBI:  Jake Burger (54)

Stolen Bases:  Evan Carter (11)

Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi (9)

Saves:  Jacob Latz (18)

ERA:  Ben Peoples (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)

Texas Rangers: Skip Schumaker (1st season)