Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/10/2026

Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Thursday, September 10, 2026

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +144, Phillies -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +145, Phillies -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +145, Phillies -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Houston Astros:  74-71 (1st place, AL West)

Philadelphia Phillies:  81-64 (2nd place, NL East)

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Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  6-4 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 74-71 record overall and have a road record of 37-33. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Astros won the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .723 OPS. Hunter Brown is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Cristian Javier is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA this season. His team lost 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 8 SO on 1 hit through 5 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with an 81-64 record overall and have a home record of 40-33. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Phillies lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .712 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 12-5 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 9 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 74-71 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have been a good road team too with their 37-33 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked really good in their games this season with their 81-64 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 40-33 home record this season. The Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 games and already won the 1st game of this series, but the Phillies are also 6-4 in their last 10 games and will have the better pitching matchup here. The Phillies are going with Wheeler in this one and he has looked great this season. he is 12-5 with a 3.23 ERA and he has been one of their best starters all year. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him all season and the team has been having success with him lately, winning 2 games in a row now with him starting. The bullpen has also looked great lately and even though the Astros have had a great pitching staff too, they have been dealing with some injuries lately and won't have the best option in this one. Their offense has looked good this season and it has been better than the Phillies offense, but the Phillies can still put up runs at home and this is a pitching matchup that they can take advantage of. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Astros Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, September 10, 2026 (1:05 pm ET start time) is Phillies 7 Astros 1.

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Houston Astros: 250-219 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 52-46 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 79-78 (-11.1 units) on the moneyline in day games. 8-4 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better.

Philadelphia Phillies: 275-203 (+11 units) on the moneyline in all games. 151-89 (+21.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 190-128 (+23.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 52-39 UNDER vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or more.

Houston Astros:  M. Burrows (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Okert (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. B. Matthews (CF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  F. Reyes (LF) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. C. Kilian (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. T. Banks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Keller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Rojas (CF) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Garcia (RF) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

“You’ve got to pick each other up. That's how you do it. That's how you stay in the race. That’s how we roll, man. Yordan, he gets all the attention and rightfully so, but we need everyone to contribute. Everyone.” - Joe Espada after his team’s win against the Phillies in their game on Tuesday. 

“You can always look at one thing like that where you would have scored, could have scored. But I think just in general, when you talk about the way you should play and the things you should do on the field, that’s really more important than whether you could score it or should you score on the next play.” - Don Mattingly after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Tuesday. 

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Cam Smith (R) RF

Jorge Barrosa (S) LF

Kyle Schwarber (L) 1B

Trea Turner (R) SS

Bryce Harper (L) DH

Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Bryson Stott (L) 3B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Justin Crawford (L) CF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.311)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (160)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (38)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (95)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (10)

Wins:  Peter Lambert (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (24)

ERA:  Josh Hader (0.89)

Batting Average:  Bryan De La Cruz (.321)

Hits:  Trea Turner (139)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (43)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (88)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (24)

Wins:  Cristopher Sánchez (16)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (30)

ERA:  Bryse Wilson (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Don Mattingly (Interim)