Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/05/2025

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  SCHN, FDSFL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros -110, Marlins -110; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Houston Astros:  62-50 (1st place, AL West)

Miami Marlins:  55-55 (3rd place, NL East)

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Houston Astros:  2-8 last 10

Miami Marlins:  8-2 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-50 record overall and have a road record of 27-26. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .724 OPS. Jason Alexander is their starting pitcher on Monday while Spencer Arrighetti is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA this season. His team lost their last game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 3 SO on 3 hits through 3.2 IP against the Minnesota Twins.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-55 record overall and have a home record of 27-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .712 OPS. Sandy Alcantara is their starting pitcher on Monday while Cal Quantrill is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 4-8 with a 4.79 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a pick 'em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 55-55 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 27-29 home record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 62-50 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have been a good road team too with their 27-26 road record this season. The Astros haven't looked good lately though as they have fallen into a big slump, going 2-8 in their last 10 games while the Marlins are 8-2 and have been red hot. The Marlins are going with Quantrill in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 4-8 with a 4.79 ERA, but he has looked a lot better lately. He is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs and the team has had more success with him lately too, winning 3 games in a row now that he started. The Astros are going with Arrighetti in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA and hasn't been keeping teams off the board in his few starts this year. He has only had 2 starts this season and is coming off a bad one in which he gave up 5 earned runs, his team losing that game too. The Marlins have been rolling lately with a really hot offense that has looked a lot better than the Astros lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Astros Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 5, 2025 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 5 Astros 4.

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Houston Astros: 247-200 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-105 (-30.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 43-37 (-5.1 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 23-14 UNDER against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins: 201-234 (+13.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 62-60 (+19.3 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 155-157 (+36.7 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 12-3 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150.

Houston Astros:  B. Walter (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. I. Paredes (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Rodgers (2B) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Miami Marlins:  D. Hill (LF) Ten Day IL - Finger. J. Tinoco (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Norby (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We just couldn’t get a lot going on offensively the whole entire series. It’s one that we have to put behind us quickly and get ready for Miami.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Sunday.

“We've been on a steady climb, slow climb, at times, but I think we just got so hyper-focused on what we needed to do to win games. We needed to play better. We needed to pitch better. Offensively, we needed to come out with more consistency with our approach from day to day, and certainly on the defensive end, to play a much cleaner brand of baseball. And we did that, and we started doing it series to series, and won a lot of games [that] maybe early in the season we weren't able to finish off. Very proud of how we've been able to do it, and to get back to .500, that's great. It took a lot of work to get there, and I think now we just don't look back. You just keep moving forward. And we have another tough opponent coming in here, starting tomorrow. Enjoy this for a little while, and then on to getting ready for Houston.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Sunday.

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Jose Altuve (R) DH

Jesús Sánchez (L) RF

Carlos Correa (R) 3B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Mauricio Dubón (R) LF

Ramón Urías (R) 2B

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Kyle Stowers (L) LF

Agustín Ramírez (R) C

Liam Hicks (L) 1B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Heriberto Hernandez (R) DH

Graham Pauley (L) 3B

Troy Johnston (L) RF

Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (116)

Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)

RBI:  Christian Walker (58)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (11)

Saves:  Josh Hader (28)

ERA:  Shawn Dubin (1.33)

Batting Average:  Jakob Marsee (.500)

Hits:  Xavier Edwards (112)

Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (25)

RBI:  Kyle Stowers (71)

Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (17)

Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (6)

Saves:  Calvin Faucher (11)

ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)