by Team Del Genio
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025The Houston Texans have been one of the biggest disappointments so far this NFL season. After going 10-7 in the regular season last year and beating the Los Angeles Chargers in the first round of the playoffs before losing to Kansas City, they are winless in their first three games this year.
The problem can be pointed directly at an offense that has scored 30 or more points only once in its last sixteen games. This year, they have not scored more than 19 points after their 17-point loss at Jacksonville last week. The offensive line is a liability that has given up 55 sacks in its last sixteen games. The season-ending injury to wide receiver Tank Dell and the trade of Stefon Diggs in the offseason have left quarterback C.J. Stroud without as many weapons as in the past.
So despite all this, why have the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to seven points? Consider this. Since 2015, there have been only seven teams that the oddsmakers installed their season-long win total at nine or higher that then began the year going 0-3. All seven of those teams won their fourth game to end their losing streak, and six of those seven teams covered the point spread.
The Houston defense remains elite and has only given up 51 combined points. The Texans are the first team in 30 years to start the season 0-3 despite holding their three opponents to less than 55 points. Led by defensive ends Willie Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, they are giving up only 17.0 points per game and 316 yards per game. They have sacked the quarterback nine times and hit the quarterback 17 times.
Playing the Titans is an ideal get-right opportunity for them since they lack a pass rush. Tennessee has only two sacks in its three games, and its quarterback has been sacked 15 times. The Titans are allowing 31.3 points per game and 374 yards per game. The Texans had covered the point spread in seven of their previous ten games against opponents who were allowing 350 or more yards per game.
Tennessee is allowing opposing rushers to average 5.3 yards per carry, and Houston had covered the point spread in seven of their previous nine games against opponents who are giving up 4.5 or more yards per carry on defense. The Texans should be able to run the ball, and that should open up their passing game.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans' team seems to play at its best in expected lower-scoring games. They had covered the point spread in five of their previous six games when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 35.5 to 42. They had played all three of their games under the number, and they had covered the point spread in four games in a row after playing three or more unders in a row. They had yet to cover the point spread this year, but they had covered the point spread in six of their previous eight games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in six of their previous seven home games after playing a division opponent in their previous game.
The point spread is so high because Tennessee has been so miserable in meeting point spread expectations. They had covered the point spread in three of their last twenty games, and they are 7-25-1 against the spread in their previous thirty-three games. Rookie Cam Ward has yet to throw for 200 or more passing yards. He was getting sacked once in every 7.6 drop backs.
It is difficult to be optimistic about this team in the second season under head coach Brian Callahan. They had covered the point spread in five of their previous eighteen games on the road. They had covered the point spread in three of their previous seventeen games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog from 3.5 to 9.5 points. They had covered the point spread in two of their previous thirteen games against division opponents.
Callahan is not succeeding in getting his team to respond to adversity. Tennessee had covered the point spread in eight of their previous twenty-five games, losing their previous game, and they had covered the point spread in five of their previous fifteen games after losing two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in two of their previous fifteen games after not covering the point spread in their last game. The Titans had covered the point spread in three of their previous nine games after playing a game where they gave up 30 or more points.
Fortunately, this game played out almost exactly as we projected. The Texans went into halftime with a 6-0 lead and slowly pulled away in the second half for a 26-0 victory. Their running game got going by running the ball 35 times for 129 yards. Stroud completed 22 of his 28 passes for 233 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Yet he was sacked twice despite the Titans' poor pass rush. The Houston defense held Tennessee to only 175 yards of offense.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The problem can be pointed directly at an offense that has scored 30 or more points only once in its last sixteen games. This year, they have not scored more than 19 points after their 17-point loss at Jacksonville last week. The offensive line is a liability that has given up 55 sacks in its last sixteen games. The season-ending injury to wide receiver Tank Dell and the trade of Stefon Diggs in the offseason have left quarterback C.J. Stroud without as many weapons as in the past.
So despite all this, why have the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to seven points? Consider this. Since 2015, there have been only seven teams that the oddsmakers installed their season-long win total at nine or higher that then began the year going 0-3. All seven of those teams won their fourth game to end their losing streak, and six of those seven teams covered the point spread.
The Houston defense remains elite and has only given up 51 combined points. The Texans are the first team in 30 years to start the season 0-3 despite holding their three opponents to less than 55 points. Led by defensive ends Willie Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, they are giving up only 17.0 points per game and 316 yards per game. They have sacked the quarterback nine times and hit the quarterback 17 times.
Playing the Titans is an ideal get-right opportunity for them since they lack a pass rush. Tennessee has only two sacks in its three games, and its quarterback has been sacked 15 times. The Titans are allowing 31.3 points per game and 374 yards per game. The Texans had covered the point spread in seven of their previous ten games against opponents who were allowing 350 or more yards per game.
Tennessee is allowing opposing rushers to average 5.3 yards per carry, and Houston had covered the point spread in seven of their previous nine games against opponents who are giving up 4.5 or more yards per carry on defense. The Texans should be able to run the ball, and that should open up their passing game.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans' team seems to play at its best in expected lower-scoring games. They had covered the point spread in five of their previous six games when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 35.5 to 42. They had played all three of their games under the number, and they had covered the point spread in four games in a row after playing three or more unders in a row. They had yet to cover the point spread this year, but they had covered the point spread in six of their previous eight games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in six of their previous seven home games after playing a division opponent in their previous game.
The point spread is so high because Tennessee has been so miserable in meeting point spread expectations. They had covered the point spread in three of their last twenty games, and they are 7-25-1 against the spread in their previous thirty-three games. Rookie Cam Ward has yet to throw for 200 or more passing yards. He was getting sacked once in every 7.6 drop backs.
It is difficult to be optimistic about this team in the second season under head coach Brian Callahan. They had covered the point spread in five of their previous eighteen games on the road. They had covered the point spread in three of their previous seventeen games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog from 3.5 to 9.5 points. They had covered the point spread in two of their previous thirteen games against division opponents.
Callahan is not succeeding in getting his team to respond to adversity. Tennessee had covered the point spread in eight of their previous twenty-five games, losing their previous game, and they had covered the point spread in five of their previous fifteen games after losing two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in two of their previous fifteen games after not covering the point spread in their last game. The Titans had covered the point spread in three of their previous nine games after playing a game where they gave up 30 or more points.
Fortunately, this game played out almost exactly as we projected. The Texans went into halftime with a 6-0 lead and slowly pulled away in the second half for a 26-0 victory. Their running game got going by running the ball 35 times for 129 yards. Stroud completed 22 of his 28 passes for 233 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Yet he was sacked twice despite the Titans' poor pass rush. The Houston defense held Tennessee to only 175 yards of offense.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
