Fresno State Bulldogs vs USC Trojans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/04/2026

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Friday, September 4, 2026

Venue:  LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Fresno +22.5, USC -22.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Fresno +22.5, USC -22.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Fresno +22.5, USC -22.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Fresno State Bulldogs:  0-0 (0-0) (Pac-12)

USC Trojans:  1-0 (0-0) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Fresno State Bulldogs:  N/A

USC Trojans:  won their last game at home against the San Jose State Spartans 42-26.

Fresno State finished last season with a 9-4 record overall and they had a 5-3 record in their conference games too.  They were 4-2 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they were also 1-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be on the road for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 25.8 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 18.8 points per game. Their offense also averaged 353.8 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 285.7 yards per game. E.J. Warner led the team in passing yards with 2,030, Rayshon Luke led the team in rushing yards with 702, and Josiah Freeman led the team in receiving yards with 642.

 

 

 

USC is entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against San Jose State 42-26. Jayden Maiava was the starting QB and he completed 25/29 passes for 286 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. King Miller led the team in rushing yards with 63 and 1 TD. Trent Mosley led the receivers with 118 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jide Abasiri led the defense in that game with 4 tackles while Jadyn Ramos led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Fresno State listed as a 22.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Fresno State had a good season going 9-4 overall and won their bowl game to end the season. Now they are joining a new conference this season, joining the Pac-12, and they will be looking to make a good impression. This is their season opener on the road while their opponent has already played a game, but their opponent also failed to cover the spread in their 1st game of the season and could be in jeopardy of doing that again. USC had a good season themselves, but they weren't good enough to get into the CFP. Now they will be looking to improve this season, but defense was a big issue for them last year and it looks like they haven't changed much there. They still have a ton of talent on offense and are returning their starting QB, but they didn't air the ball out a ton in that 1st game. They ended up beating San Jose State 42-26 and their offense looked good, but they had more of a focus on running the ball which took a lot of time off the clock during their possessions. They didn't put up 50+ points like we are used to seeing this Lincoln Riley offense do against lesser opponents. The defense was also supposed to improve this season and it looked great in the 1st half, but they gave up a ton of points late in the game which gave San Jose State a backdoor cover, the final score being 42-26. They couldn't even win that game by 20 points at home and now they will be playing a stronger opponent who also has the offensive talent to put up some points late and keep this game within the number. Fresno State will also be looking to make a statement in this 1st game against a power 4 school now that they have joined a new conference, so look for them to bring their best effort here and keep this score respectable as USC will likely take their foot off the gas again late. The best way to place a bet here is on Fresno State to cover the spread in this game. 

Fresno State USC Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, September 4, 2026 (9:00 pm ET start time) is USC 45 Fresno 24.

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Fresno State Bulldogs: 6-3 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points. 7-4 ATS in non-conference games. 6-1 OVER as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points.

USC Trojans: 3-8 ATS off a home win. 4-9 ATS after playing a game at home. 1-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 9-5 OVER in home lined games. 5-1 OVER in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Fresno State Bulldogs:  B. Ramirez (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

USC Trojans:  R. Tezeno (WR) Questionable - Foot. T. Hines (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Anderson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Ison (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Huard (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. O'Connor (OG) Out - Undisclosed.

"The work is going to be out there for us, and to be able to sustain it year-long is going to be the challenge.” - Matt Entz on Fresno State joining the Pac-12. 

“Really dominated the game there through three quarters. A lot of exciting ball. (Had) a lot of guys (in) their first games as Trojans make a lot of big plays out there." - Lincoln Riley after his team’s win against SJSU in their game last week. 

WR Freeman, Josiah

WR Avit, Ezekiel

WR McClain, Jahlil

TE Lium, Brock

QB Martin, Khristian

RB Donelson, Bryson

WR Simms, Corey

WR Dixon-Wyatt, Kayden

WR Mosley, Trent

TE Bowman, Mark

QB Maiava, Jayden

RB Jordan, Waymond

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Passing: Jayden Maiava (286)

Rushing: King Miller (63)

Receiving: Trent Mosley (118)

Touchdowns: Trent Mosley (1)

Coaches:

Fresno State Bulldogs: Matt Entz (2nd season)

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (5th season)