Florida State Seminoles vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/26/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Friday, September 26, 2025

Venue:  Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  FSU -7, UVA +7; Over/Under:  57.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  FSU -7, UVA +7; Over/Under:  57.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  FSU -7, UVA +7; Over/Under:  57.5 points

Florida State Seminoles:  3-0 (0-0) (7th place, ACC)

Virginia Cavaliers:  3-1 (1-0) (2nd place, ACC)

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Florida State Seminoles:  won their last game at home against the Kent State Golden Flashes 66-10.

Virginia Cavaliers:  won their last game at home against the Stanford Cardinal 48-20.

Florida State is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Kent State 66-10. Thomas Castellanos was the starting QB and he completed 10/13 passes for 205 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Gavin Sawchuk led the team in rushing yards with 97 and 2 TDs. Micahi Danzy led the receivers with 112 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Jamar Graham led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Elijah Herring and Mandrell Desir each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Virginia is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Stanford 48-20. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 380 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. J'Mari Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 85. Trell Harris led the receivers with 145 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 3 TDs. Daniel Rickert, Christian Charles, and Ethan Minter each led the defense in that game with 2 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Daniel Rickert led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Florida State listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida State has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall which has them right near the top of the ACC entering conference play. They have a big statement win under their belt with Alabama this season and their other 2 wins came in blow out fashion. They haven't played a road game or a conference opponent yet, but they are starting to look a lot more like the team from 2 years ago as opposed to last season. Meanwhile, Virginia has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them off to a good start in the ACC. They are coming off that first conference win last week, beating Stanford 48-20 at home, but their 1 loss this year did come against another ACC opponent, even though it doesn't count as a conference game. Virginia lost their only real test against NC State on the road. That win over Stanford was great, but Stanford is also one of the worst teams in the ACC this year. Virginia has been rolling offensively in their games, but their defense has been giving up a ton of points and they aren't going to be able to stop this Florida State offense that can move the ball in many different ways. Florida State has a big advantage here with the better defensive unit and they are going to be motivated to start their conference schedule with a big road win now that they are in a real position to win the conference this season. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida State to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida State Virginia Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, September 26, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Florida State 31 Virginia 10.

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Florida State Seminoles: 3-6 ATS in road lined games. 2-5 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 6-3 OVER off a home win. 30-23 OVER off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Virginia Cavaliers: 17-9 ATS in all lined games. 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 8-4 ATS after playing a game at home. 10-5 OVER as an underdog. 9-2 OVER after playing a game at home.

Florida State Seminoles:  C. Holmes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. White (WR) Questionable - Wrist. R. Pittman Jr. (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Williams (RB) Out - Undisclosed. E. Pritchard (LB) Out - Undisclosed.

Virginia Cavaliers:  D. Wohlabaugh Jr. (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ward (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Walker (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Vaughn (RB) Questionable - Ankle. W. Unamba (OG) Questionable - Knee. E. Sipe (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Simmons (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ladd (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Jones (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Jones (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Brosterhous (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Morris (CB) Out - Knee. M. Thomas (OG) Out - Foot. M. Mills (OG) Out - Knee.

“An extraordinary night offensively, being able to have great balance. It comes down to their work. They’ve made a great investment into each other.” - Mike Norvell after his team’s win against Kent State in their last game. 

“We felt like this week we were going to get some opportunities to put the ball in the air. It was good for Chandler to have a game like that.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s win against Stanford in their last game. 

WR Robinson, Duce

WR Boggs, Jayvan

WR White, Squirrel

TE Douglas, Markeston

QB Castellanos, Tommy

RB Sawchuk, Gavin

WR Edrine, Jahmal

WR Harris, Trell

WR Ross, Cam

TE Twitty, Dakota

QB Morris, Chandler

RB Taylor, J'Mari

Passing: Tommy Castellanos (594)

Rushing: Micahi Danzy (173)

Receiving: Duce Robinson (199)

Touchdowns: Gavin Sawchuk (6)

Passing: Chandler Morris (1,050)

Rushing: J'Mari Taylor (298)

Receiving: Trell Harris (321)

Touchdowns: J'Mari Taylor (6)

Coaches:

Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (6th season)

Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (4th season)