by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 14, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 19, 2026
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: FSU +20.5, Alabama -20.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: FSU +20.5, Alabama -20.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: FSU +20.5, Alabama -20.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Florida State Seminoles: 1-1 (0-1) (14th place, ACC)
Alabama Crimson Tide: 2-0 (1-0) (1st place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Florida State Seminoles: lost their last game at home against the SMU Mustangs 27-24.
Alabama Crimson Tide: won their last game on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats 45-17.
Florida State Seminoles vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis
Florida State is entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against SMU 27-24. Ashton Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 12/23 passes for 125 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Ousmane Kromah led the team in rushing yards with 116 and 1 TD. Samuel Singleton Jr. led the receivers with 40 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Ja'Bril Rawls, Chris Jones, and Omar Graham Jr. each led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Nehemiah Chandler and Ashlynd Barker each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Alabama is entering this game with a 2-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Kentucky 45-17. Keelon Russell was the starting QB and he completed 16/23 passes for 188 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Daniel Hill led the team in rushing yards with 104 and 1 TD. Lotzeir Brooks led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Caleb Woodson led the defense in that game with 12 tackles while Devan Thompkins and Caleb Woodson each led the defense in sacks with 2. Luke Metz came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Florida State vs Alabama Prediction
The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked great in their games this season with their 2-0 record overall and they are already 1-0 in their conference games too. They have looked good on their home field too with their 1-0 home record so far. Meanwhile, Florida State hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 1-1 record overall and their 0-1 conference record. They haven't played any road games either and will be playing their first road game of the season here. Florida State already lost at home to another ranked opponent, losing a tight 27-24 game with SMU, but now they are getting a much tougher ranked opponent who has National Championship hopes this year. Alabama rolled over East Carolina in their 1st game of the season and they got their 1st real test last week, playing on the road in a conference game against a new look Kentucky team. Alabama had a lot of trouble with Kentucky in the 1st half and even trailed at one point, but they hit another gear in the 2nd half, going on to win 45-17. They looked a lot better in the 2nd half and the defense really stepped up in that one. They did lose this game last year on the road, but that is only going to motivate them more to get revenge. Alabama won't overlook Florida State this season and they do have a lot more talent to work with in this game. Florida State has also been a program in decline over the last few years while Kalen DeBoer is coaching for his job, so look for Alabama to get Florida State back and roll them in this one. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
Florida State Alabama Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Alabama 45 Florida State 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Florida State Seminoles: 16-29 ATS as a road underdog. 17-26 ATS off a home loss. 11-19 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. 28-18 UNDER against SEC opponents. 25-16 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 29-18 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 22-8 ATS off a road blowout win by 28 points or more. 14-8 UNDER as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. 48-29 UNDER off a road win against a conference rival.
Key Injuries
Florida State Seminoles: T. Gelsey (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Markey (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Carter (WR) Out - Back.
Alabama Crimson Tide: A. Dear (RB) Questionable - Leg. N. Rogers (WR) Questionable - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“We got to go make plays in the passing game when opportunities present themselves. Didn’t do a good job protecting with that throughout, some inconsistencies there that we got to clean up. We got to get that corrected. We had our opportunities. It’s a shame to come up a field goal short.” - Mike Norvell after his team’s loss against SMU in their last game.
″(It was) far from a perfect game. It wasn’t this crazy energy that we had to have (after trailing). I felt like it was kind of almost just getting locked in, getting refocused, and just knowing the game was going to be ours. We’ve just got to go out and execute.” - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against Kentucky in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Florida State Seminoles
WR Robinson, Duce
WR Danzy, Micahi
WR Boggs, Jayvan
TE Riles, Desirrio
QB Daniels, Ashton
RB Kromah, Ousmane
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Coleman-Williams, Ryan
WR Scott, Rico
WR Brooks, Lotzeir
TE Edwards, Kaleb
TE Pritchett, Marshall
QB Russell, Keelon
RB Hill, Daniel
Statistical Leaders
Florida State Seminoles
Passing: Ashton Daniels (327)
Rushing: Ousmane Kromah (231)
Receiving: Samuel Singleton Jr. (94)
Touchdowns: Samuel Singleton Jr. (3)
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: Keelon Russell (444)
Rushing: Daniel Hill (151)
Receiving: Ryan Coleman-Williams (173)
Touchdowns: Daniel Hill (3)
Coaches:
Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (7th season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
