Florida Gators vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/17/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 17, 2026

Venue:  Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida +10.5, Texas -10.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida +10.5, Texas -10.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida +10.5, Texas -10.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Florida Gators:  4-2 (2-2) (9th place, SEC)

Texas Longhorns:  4-1 (1-1) (10th place, SEC)

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Florida Gators:  lost their last game at home against the South Carolina Gamecocks 38-19.

Texas Longhorns:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Oklahoma Sooners 27-24.

Florida is entering this game with a 4-2 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against South Carolina 38-19. Aaron Philo was the starting QB and he completed 21/28 passes for 227 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 59 and 1 TD. Bailey Stockton led the receivers with 127 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Aaron Chiles led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Myles Graham led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Oklahoma 27-24. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 19/31 passes for 260 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Derrek Cooper led the team in rushing yards with 41. Cam Coleman led the receivers with 110 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Rasheem Biles led the defense in that game with 12 tackles while Colin Simmons led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Florida listed as a 10.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida has looked good in their games this season with their 4-2 record overall and their 2-2 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 1-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-1 conference record which has them right in the middle of the SEC. They have looked great on their home field too with their 3-0 home record this season. Texas has one of the best wins in the nation with a 24-23 win over Ohio State and they were the 1st ranked team in the nation entering last week, but now they are coming off a 27-24 loss to a terrible Oklahoma team in the Red River Rivalry. That was a big rivalry game for them so it was never going to be easy, but that is a game that they needed to win with how bad Oklahoma has looked this year. Texas does have a really good defense, but the offense just hasn't looked right with Arch Manning having a lot of trouble and even in their only conference win against Tennessee, that offense had a lot of trouble in that game too. Florida hasn't looked any better lately as they started the season 4-0 with a big win over Ole Miss, but that was their last win, losing 2 games in a row now. They had a big let down against Missouri after their win against Ole Miss, but now they are coming off a 38-19 loss at home to a terrible South Carolina team. Texas really needs to bounce back in this game if they want to be a serious contender for the National Championship, but Florida will also be desperate to bounce back in this one. This is not a Texas offense that has shown that they can blow out conference opponents and Florida does have the talent on offense to keep up here. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 27 Florida 20.

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Florida Gators: 27-16 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 15-8 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. 22-16 ATS off a home loss. 25-19 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Texas Longhorns: 6-12 ATS against conference opponents. 4-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 5-10 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 10-4 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Florida Gators:  L. Montgomery (RB) Probable - Undisclosed. V. Brown III (WR) Questionable - Knee. B. Stockton (WR) Probable - Back. E. Singleton Jr. (WR) Probable - Ankle. D. Groce (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Jimenez (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

Texas Longhorns:  K. Lockett (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Williams (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Goosby (OG) Questionable - Knee. D. McCutcheon (WR) Questionable - Illness.

“Disappointing football. No excuse for it. Not many words that are going to make any of it right. I’m frustrated with every part of what we did today.” - Jon Sumrall after his team’s loss against South Carolina in their last game. 

“It’s obviously a level of disappointment, there’s a level of anger and frustration because we know we have issues that need to be fixed and we’re working on those issues and trying to get them fixed.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s loss against Oklahoma in their last game.  

WR Wilson, Dallas

WR Singleton Jr., Eric

WR Brown III, Vernell

TE Jackson, Amir

QB Philo, Aaron

RB Baugh, Jadan

WR Coleman, Cam

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Mosley V, Emmett

TE Shannon, Spencer

QB Manning, Arch

RB Smothers, Hollywood

Passing: Aaron Philo (1,341)

Rushing: Jadan Baugh (672)

Receiving: Dallas Wilson (376)

Touchdowns: Jadan Baugh (12)

Passing: Arch Manning (1,122)

Rushing: Hollywood Smothers (237)

Receiving: Cam Coleman (318)

Touchdowns: Cam Coleman (5)

Coaches:

Florida Gators: Jon Sumrall (1st season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (6th season)