Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/20/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 20, 2025

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Florida +7.5, Miami-FL -7.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Florida +7.5, Miami-FL -7.5; Over/Under:  51 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Florida +7.5, Miami-FL -7.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Florida Gators:  1-2 (0-1) (16th place, SEC)

Miami Hurricanes:  3-0 (0-0) (4th place, ACC)

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Florida Gators:  lost their last game on the road against the LSU Tigers 20-10.

Miami Hurricanes:  won their last game at home against the South Florida Bulls 49-12.

Florida is entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against LSU 20-10. DJ Lagway was the starting QB and he completed 33/49 passes for 287 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 46. Vernell Brown III led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Myles Graham led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Dijon Johnson came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Miami-Florida is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Florida 49-12. Carson Beck was the starting QB and he completed 23/28 passes for 340 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 120 and 2 TDs. Keelan Marion led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jakobe Thomas led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Booker Pickett led the defense in sacks with 1. Bryce Fitzgerald came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Miami listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Miami has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall and they are going to be a threat in the ACC this year. They have 2 big wins against ranked opponents to start the season, beating Notre Dame in week 1 and now coming off a blowout win over South Florida. They have already shown why they should be considered a threat in the ACC this year, but they are still going to bring their best effort for this game with a chance to end one of their in-state rivals seasons right here. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall which already has them right at the bottom of the SEC. They beat LIU in their season opener, but it has been all downhill from there with a home loss to South Florida the next week and now a 20-10 loss to LSU in their last one. That loss was a much closer game, but their offense has looked terrible in their last 2 games and this is not a bad Miami defense they will be playing. Billy Napier is already on the hot seat so there is a lot of pressure on Florida to win this game, but Miami knows a 3rd loss will pretty much end Florida's season, especially one in a blowout game, so look for Miami to win again without taking their foot off the gas. The best way to place a bet here is on Miami to cover the spread in this game. 

Florida Miami Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 20, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Miami 31 Florida 7.

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Florida Gators: 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 18-24 ATS against ACC opponents. 14-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. 7-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-2 OVER off a loss against a conference rival.

Miami Hurricanes: 9-2 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 5-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. 6-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 19-9 OVER in all lined games. 9-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 

Florida Gators:  C. Banks (DL) Questionable - Foot. D. Wilson (WR) Questionable - Leg. M. Boireau (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. F. Westphal (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. McCray (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Webb (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Isacks (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Caraway Jr. (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Miami Hurricanes:  J. Trader (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lyle (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“LSU won the football game! Won the game! I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy? Those are ridiculous questions. And I am getting tired of it. That football team just worked their tail off to get an SEC win and you want to know what’s wrong. Give them some respect. How about that? Instead of micro-analyzing every little thing.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s win against Florida in their last game. 

“There was a lot of motivation going into this thing, besides the fact that they were a ranked football team because I have a lot of respect for their coaches and their players. This was an in-state game. And those games, you have to play your very best.” - Mario Cristobal after his team’s win against USF in their last game. 

WR Wilson III, Eugene

WR Sturdivant, J. Michael

WR Brown III, Vernell

TE Hansen, Hayden

QB Lagway, DJ

RB Baugh, Jadan

WR Daniels, CJ

WR Marion, Keelan

WR Toney, Malachi 

TE Bauman, Alex

TE Lofton, Elija

QB Beck, Carson

RB Fletcher Jr., Mark

Passing: D. Lagway (629)

Rushing: J. Baugh (243)

Receiving: V. Brown III (197)

Touchdowns: E. Wilson III (2)

Passing: C. Beck (812)

Rushing: M. Fletcher Jr. (272)

Receiving: M. Toney (228)

Touchdowns: M. Fletcher Jr. (4)

Coaches:

Florida Gators: Billy Napier (4th season)

Miami Hurricanes: Mario Cristobal (4th season)