Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/27/2026

 

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Friday, February 27, 2026

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7.5, Thunder -7.5; Over/Under:  231.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7.5, Thunder -7.5; Over/Under:  231.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +7.5, Thunder -7.5; Over/Under:  231.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  37-22 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  45-15 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  4-6 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  6-4 last 10

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 37-22 record overall this season and they are 21-11 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Boston Celtics. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 30 while Tim Hardaway Jr. was next on the team with 14 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 41.9% from the field, 34.9% from 3-point range, and 55.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.7 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 33-26 this season and their O/U record is 37-22.

The Thunder are entering this game with a 45-15 record overall this season and they are 24-6 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Detroit Pistons. Jaylin Williams led the team in points in that game with 30 while Cason Wallace was next on the team with 23 points. Aaron Wiggins led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jaylin Williams led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 40.6% from the field, 36.7% from 3-point range, and 95.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 31-29 this season and their O/U record is 32-28.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 7.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nuggets have looked really good in their games this season with their 37-22 record overall which has them right near the top of the West. They have been a great road team too with their 21-11 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 45-15 record overall which has them right at the top of the West with the best record in the NBA. They have looked great on their home court too with their 24-6 home record this season. The Thunder are the defending NBA Champions and they have been the best team in the NBA this season too. They were on a historical pace to start the season with the way they were winning games early on, but they have cooled off a lot over the last 2 months and are missing multiple starters now. They have still looked good lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have managed to stay afloat with the talent and depth they have, but they are off a loss to the Pistons in their last one and they are going to struggle in these games against top opponents without their best players. The Nuggets haven't looked that great lately themselves, going 4-6 in their last 10 games, but they have still been one of the best teams in the West all year and they have been a better road team this year too. They are also off a big win over the red hot Celtics in their last one so they are going to have some momentum from that win, and they are going to bring their best effort on the road for the best team in the NBA, whether the Thunder are healthy or not. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Nuggets Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, February 27, 2026 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 110 Thunder 103.

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Denver Nuggets: 8-2 ATS as a road underdog. 11-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 25-18 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% of their shots or more. 9-1 OVER revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: 10-17 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 5-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 13-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 7-3 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).

Denver Nuggets:  J. Murray (PG) Day To Day - Illness. J. Pickett (SG) Day To Day - Knee. P. Watson (SF) Out - Hamstring. A. Gordon (PF) Out - Hamstring. T. Bates (SG) Out - Foot.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  C. Holmgren (C) Day To Day - Back. I. Hartenstein (C) Day To Day - Illness Management. B. Carlson (C) Day To Day - Back. I. Joe (SG) Day To Day - Lower Body. A. Caruso (SG) Day To Day - Ankle. J. Williams (SG) Out - Hamstring. S. Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) Out - Abdomen. A. Mitchell (SG) Out - Abdomen. T. Sorber (C) Out For Season - Knee.

"It’s one thing to talk about it, talk about it in the media, show film, but you have to go do it. They were really good tonight, everybody got into the ball extremely aggressive. We said it at the end of the game, we have gotten to this point with our win total because of our offense, that’s the bottom line. If we’re going to do something uniquely special this season, our defense has to come along. Tonight was a good example of it, but the challenges will keep coming with OKC next." - David Adelman after his team’s win against the Celtics in their game on Wednesday.

"He was unreal tonight. Great toughness and obviously great offense. I think that must be a career high for him. We flowed through him against a team that really pressures, similar to what we’ve had to do lately. He was a great help for us again tonight." - Mark Daigneault on Jaylin Williams after his team’s loss against the Pistons in their game on Wednesday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Julian Strawther

PF Cameron Johnson

C Nikola Jokic

PG Nikola Topic

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Alex Caruso 

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: Nikola Jokic (28.8)

APG: Nikola Jokic (10.4)

Reb/G: Nikola Jokic (12.5)

PPG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8)

APG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: Isaiah Hartenstein (9.5)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (2nd season)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (6th season)