The Copa Sudamericana group stage is over and the bracket has been set for the Knockout Rounds. The Round of 16 is set to start on Tuesday, August 12, with each round being a 2-leg home and home until the Final which is a single leg match being played in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. Racing Club is the defending champion of the competition, but they have qualified for the Knockout Rounds in Copa Libertadores so there is going to be a new champion crowned this season. With the bracket now set, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the trophy this season.
To Win Outright
Fluminense +450: Fluminense is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense is currently sitting in 12th place in the Brasileirao and they have not played well in their recent matches. They have struggled in recent matches against some of the top opponents in the Brasileirao, but they did get off to a very good start this season and also played very well in the Club World Cup. They have not found their form since coming back from the CWC, but they are still the most talented side in this competition and they have both the quality as well as the depth to make a deep run. They are getting a much weaker opponent in the Round of 16 and if they can get by that they will have to face a club from Argentina in the next round, but the clubs from Argentina that are left in this competition are not the powerhouses. They will have to face either Central Cordoba or Lanus and both of those clubs are much weaker in strength. Independiente is really the strongest side from Argentina left in this tournament with the way they played in the Apertura, but even they have fallen out of form to start the Clausura and do not have the talent that Fluminense has. This is not the competition that they wanted to be in as they are a Copa Libertadores champion in the last few years, but they will still make the most of their opportunity here being the strongest team left in the field. Fluminense at +450 has some good value to win the tournament.
Atlético Mineiro +500: Atlético Mineiro is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Atletico Mineiro is currently sitting in 13th place in the Brasileirao and they have not been in great form this season. They did go through a good stretch, but they struggled to start the season and they have fallen out of form once again. They have been very inconsistent this season and they have struggled against the stronger opponents in the Brasileirao as well. Both their attack and their defense has not been great this season either, scoring just 16 goals in their 15 league matches while also allowing 16 goals in those. They are going to have an easier opponent in the Round of 16, but they are still facing a club from Argentina in Godoy Cruz who has started their Clausura in much better form as well. If they can get by Godoy Cruz, they still do not have an easy path as they could possibly face a Bolivar side that has a big elevation advantage at home. There are also some other quality opponents on their side of the bracket such as Independiente del Valle who is a former champion in recent years, Huracan who has been a solid team in the LPF, and Mushuc Runa who absolutely dominated some quality opponents in the group stage. Atletico Mineiro is going to have a difficult path to the Final no matter who they face and they have not been a dominant team this season so even with their talent, they could easily struggle in this competition without the proper focus. There is no real value in Atletico Mineiro at +500 to win this competition.
Independiente +550: Independiente is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Independiente has been having a great season in the LPF as they were one of the better teams in the league in the Apertura. They did fall short in the playoffs though and now they are starting to regress with the start of the Clausura. They have fallen out of form now and their defense has not been nearly as good as it was to start the season. They still have a great defense, but they were overachieving in the Apertura and they do not really have the quality or depth to make a deep run in this competition while also trying to be a top team in the LPF as well. They do have an easier path with the opponents they could be facing in the first 2 rounds, but they also have Fluminense as well as 2 other clubs from Argentina who could give them trouble as they get closer to the Final. There are also better teams on the other side of the bracket so there is a good chance that they do not win even if they get to the Final. There is no real value in Independiente at +550 to win this tournament.
Independiente del Valle +600: Independiente del Valle is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Independiente del Valle has been in great form this season as they currently sit at the top of the table in Ecuador and have only been getting better in recent matches. They struggled a bit to start the season as they were also juggling the Copa Libertadores group stage and they failed to get out of that, but they are starting to play in better form now and they will be focused on this tournament with weaker competition. They have both the quality as well as the depth to go deep in this tournament, and they have also won the competition in recent years as well. They have the best defense in their domestic league as well as the best attack, scoring 42 goals in their 22 matches while only allowing 19 goals. They are also going to have a decent path to the Final as they are facing Mushuc Runa in the 1st round who dominated the group stage, but they are also in the same domestic league as Independiente del Valle and currently sit at the bottom of the table. If they get to the next round, they would have to face the winner of Once Caldas/Huracan which will not be a difficult matchup for them either. Independiente del Valle has won this competition in recent years and they are the best team in Ecuador right now as they ramp up their form, they are going to be a very tough out in this competition as they will be focused and are one of the more talented sides. Independiente del Valle at +600 has some good value to win the competition.
Recommendation
There are plenty of quality teams from different countries in this tournament and there are no real powerhouses either so this is definitely a more open competition for anyone to win. There is still a big gap between the strongest teams and the middle of the field though and as long as the focus is on this competition for these clubs, the stronger teams will prevail. Fluminense at +450 is great value for what is the strongest team talent-wise left in this competition. Independiente del Valle at +600 also has good value as a team that has won this competition in recent years and has been in great form recently, dominating their domestic league. Fluminense at +450 and Independiente del Valle at +600 are the 2 best options to win this tournament and there is a chance that they both end up in the Final with the way the bracket is positioned.