The Copa do Brasil is down to the last 4 teams with the Semi-Finals starting on Wednesday, December 10. Flamengo is the defending champion of the competition, winning the last 2 seasons as well as 4 of the last 6 seasons while appearing in 6 straight Finals, but they are out of the competition so there is going to be a new champion this season. The Semi-Finals will include Cruzeiro vs Corinthians and Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense. Flamengo may be the defending champions, but Cruzeiro has the most Titles in Copa do Brasil history with 6. With the Semi-Finals approaching, it is time to see who has the best chance at bringing home the trophy this season.
To Win Outright
Cruzeiro +175: Cruzeiro is coming into the Semi-Finals as the team with the best chance at taking home the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Cruzeiro has been having a very good season in the Brasileirao as they are currently sitting in the top 4 and have been one of the more dominant teams in the league all season. They came up from Serie B for the 2023 season, but each year they have been improving and they have a lot of quality in their squad now. They were knocked out of Copa Sudamericana earlier this season, but their focus has turned to this competition now and they have been dominant in it with 3 straight wins in the competition. They have one of the better attacks in the league with 42 goals scored in their 29 league matches, but their defense has been their biggest strength. They have only allowed 21 goals in their 29 league matches and that is the 2nd best defense in the league behind Flamengo. Cruzeiro is currently in the Title race for the Brasileiro, but the Semi-Finals of this competition do not start until the Brasileirao season is over so Cruzeiro will be fully focused on winning this competition, especially if they come up short in the Title race. They are also going up against Corinthians in the Semi-Finals who have been a very inconsistent team all season, currently sitting in 11th in the Brasileirao and allowing more goals this season than they have scored. Cruzeiro has a lot of value here at +175 as they are the best team left in the competition.
Fluminense +250: Fluminense is coming into the Semi-Finals as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense has had a good season as they are currently sitting inside the top 10 of the Brasileora, but they are also right outside the top 6 as they have been very inconsistent this season. They had a slow start to the season and found a spark in the Club World Cup, but that spark never translated to the league as they went into a big slump after that competition. They have been in better form toward the end of the season now and they do have a lot of quality in their squad, but they have also been underperforming in these competitions all season. They were just kicked out of Copa Sudamericana and they were the best team left in that competition as well. Both their attack and their defense have not been great this season either, scoring 35 goals and allowing 35 goals in their 28 matches. Fluminense has not been a very balanced team this season either. They have been very home dependent in their matches, but 8 of their 11 losses in the Brasileirao have come away from home. They have also struggled this season and in recent years against all 3 opponents left in the competition. Fluminense may be the better side with more quality, but there is no guarantee that they get through Vasco da Gama in the Semi-Finals. Even if they do get through, either opponent will be tough for them in the Finals. Fluminense at +250 is not a great option to bring home the trophy as this will likely be a season of disappointment for them.
Corinthians +275: Corinthians is coming into the Semi-Finals as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Corinthians has not had a great season in the Brasileirao as they are currently sitting outside the top 10 in the bottom half of the league. They have been a very inconsistent team all season and they do not have a strong attack as they actually have a negative goal differential on the season. They have scored 31 goals and have allowed 35 goals in their 29 league matches. They do have some good quality in their squad, but it has not been clicking for a lot of the season. They have not been in great form heading into the final stretch of the Brasileirao season either. They are also going up against Cruzeiro in the Semi-Finals and that is not an easy matchup for them since Cruzeiro is a top 3 team in the league and has been very dominant for most of the season. They did not play well in Copa Sudamericana this season either, failing to get out of the group stage, and these matches are going to be played after the Brasileirao season is over so Cruzeiro is not going to be distracted by other competitions. Corinthians does not have the defense to survive a 2-leg round with Cruzeiro so they have a very big road block in this competition right in the Semi-Finals. There is no real value in Corinthians at +275 to win this competition.
Vasco da Gama +450: Vasco da Gama is coming into the Semi-Finals as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Vasco da Gama has been having a good season in the Brasileirao as they are currently sitting inside the top 10. They have been staying very competitive in the league this season, but they are not a team that has a lot of quality in their squad. They are the weakest team left in the competition and they do have a very good attack, but that is also because their defense has been so bad. They have a top 5 attack in the Brasileirao with 46 goals scored in their 29 matches, but they have also allowed 41 goals which is higher in the league. They have been in great form heading into the final stretch of the season, but they still have a very tough path to win this competition. They do not have an easy match against Fluminense in the Semi-Finals, and either opponent will be very tough for them if they make it to the Finals. They very well could get by Fluminense, but both Cruzeiro and Corinthians have much better defenses so Vasco will not be able to score their way out of those matches. There is some value in Vasco da Gama to make it to the Finals as they could certainly get by Fluminense, but they do not have the squad to win this competition in the Final. There is no real value in Vasco da Gama at +450 to win this competition.
Recommendation
Only 1 team can take home the trophy this season and there is a clear option to do so. Cruzeiro is the best team left in the competition and it is theirs to win. They are not going to struggle against any of the other opponents and there is no team left in the competition that can really challenge them. This will also be a big focus for them as they have a chance to finish the season with multiple trophies this year. Cruzeiro at +175 is the best option to win the Copa do Brasil this season.