by Hollywood Sports
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA STATE: The Sun Devils were one of the most surprising teams in the nation last season after rising from two-straight 3-9 campaigns to making the college football playoff, where they lost to Texas in the quarterfinals by a 39-31 score in two overtimes. Third-year head coach Kenny Dillingham deserves tons of credit for transforming the culture at Arizona State after inheriting a program dealing with NCAA sanctions from the bloated Herm Edwards era. The expectations are very high with 17 starters back from that team. Eight starters are back on offense, led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt and junior wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Leavitt passes for 2885 yards with 24 touchdown passes and only six interceptions — and he added 443 rushing yards on the ground. Tyson caught 75 passes for 1101 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Four starters are back on the offensive line. The defense returns nine starters and 14 of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year. Dillingham brought in another six transfers, including three who were starters last season. On paper, they appear to be the favorites to once again win the Big 12. But the Sun Devils benefited from a +14 net turnover margin, helped by their offense, which ranked third in the FBS with only nine turnovers. What happens if that regresses? They went 6-2 in games decided by one scoring possession. There certainly is a leadership void that must be addressed. Running back Cam Skattebo was the heart and soul of this team after generating 2316 total yards. He is on to the NFL. The defense lost nickel back Shamari Simmons as well, who was the team’s Most Valuable Player for two straight seasons.
ARMY WEST POINT: In my deep dive on this program two years ago, my biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken had decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the scheme. It took Monken eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point, with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. Last season, this return to their traditional offensive look paid off, big-time. Quarterback Bryson Daily rushed for 1677 non-sack yards in leading Army to a 12-2 record, which included winning the American Athletic Conference title and the Independence Bowl against Louisiana Tech. Their defense ranked eighth and fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in only 15.5 Points-Per-Game. But only nine starters are back from that squad. Daily graduated. Star full back Kante Udoh transferred to Arizona State. After overseeing the Joe Moore award-winning offensive line, offensive line coach Matt Drinkill left to become the head coach at Central Michigan. On defense, edge rusher Elo Modozie transferred to Georgia, and their two starting cornerbacks also entered the transfer portal. But in his twelfth year as head coach, Jeff Monken has led the Black Knights to 8.4 average victories over the last nine seasons.
HOUSTON: The Cougars endured a second-straight 4-8 campaign in the first year under new head coach Willie Fritz. After a 3-3 start in Big 12 play, they lost their final three conference games of the season. The offense was abysmal. They ranked 128th and 132nd in the nation by generating 288.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 14.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 14 points or less in six of their games. Houston’s defense was surprisingly outstanding last year. They ranked 23rd in the nation by only giving up 324.8 total YPG. But that unit lost five of their top six tacklers and returned only four of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Fritz was aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in three new players on the defensive line, four more linebackers, and nine more defensive backs. After defensive coordinator Shiel Wood left to take the same job at Texas Tech, Fritz poached Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to run his defense. He also reunited with Kevin Barbay, his last offensive coordinator at Tulane two years ago, to fix the offense. Former five-star recruit Conner Weigman joined the team from Texas A&M to run the offense. He has 13 career starts in three injury-riddled seasons. A suspect offensive line sees five new players come in from the portal who combined for 68 starts and 4865 snaps.
IOWA: The Hawkeyes finally were forced to abandon nepotism when offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz missed the 25.5 Points-Per-Game mandate by 11.1 points two years ago. Head coach Kirk Ferentz turned to former quarterback and Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester to turn around the offense — and Iowa did score a respectable 27.7 PPG last year, a dramatic +12.3 PPG improvement from two years ago. But that unit only ranked 117th in the nation by generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. I never thought former Michigan transfer Cade McNamara was going to be the answer at quarterback. The Hawkeyes averaged only 131.6 passing YPG last season, ranking 129th in the FBS. Ferentz used the transfer portal again to fill that position by tapping Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State. The four-year starter led his team to back-to-back FCS championships. He could be the best quarterback this team has had since perhaps C.J. Beathard about a decade ago, after accounting for 92 touchdowns in his career. He has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career and run for another 1768 yards. That side of the ball should be better. However, the defense may take a step or two back. It’s simply an issue of a drop-off in talent. Many career backups are finally getting their chance to play in their senior season, which begs the question of why they did not get on the field sooner. Perhaps this group can be coached up. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker is one of the best in the business. But the cracks in the armor are beginning to show. After ranking 17th or better in six straight seasons (with four top-eight results), they dropped to 20th in the nation in total yardage last year despite returning 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 400 snaps the year prior. Depth is becoming a problem on that side of the ball — and that tight rotation from two years ago, where only three backups saw significant playing time, was a red flag even then. Iowa finished 8-5 last year after a 27-24 loss to Missouri in the Music City Bowl. While they finished 6-3 in the Big Ten, they got outgained by -27 net YPG. An opportunistic defense helped them enjoy a +12 net turnover margin, tied for eighth best in the nation. If the defense cannot force many turnovers, then it will be on the offense and Gronowski to cover that gap.
JAMES MADISON: There were plenty of reasons to expect the Dukes to take a step back last year. The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But it was a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State, leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference players on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers is back, and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. In came new head coach Bob Chesney, who was running a successful program at Holy Cross. He oversaw a 9-4 campaign that culminated in a 27-17 victory against Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl, which was the first bowl win in program history. Despite a 4-4 record against Sun Belt Conference opponents, the Dukes outgained those teams by +85.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Only seven starters return from that group, but Chesney is aggressive in the transfer portal. After adding at least 31 players in the portal last year, he has added at least 29 new players in the transfer portal this season. James Madison was fortunate to lead the nation with a +20 net turnover margin last year. It is unreasonable to expect that to happen again. On the other hand, they suffered +3 net upset losses last year. There are questions at quarterback with last year’s starter, Alonza Barrett III, recovering from a leg injury that might delay his availability to start the season. Chesney brought in his former quarterback from his days at Holy Cross, Matthew Sluka, and Cameron Coleman from Richmond. This situation needs to be monitored.
LOUISVILLE: After reaching the ACC Championship Game in his first season coaching the Cardinals, Jeff Brohm saw his team take a step back last year, with Louisville settling for a 9-4 record. All four of their losses were decided by seven points or less — but too often it was bad mistakes late in the game that cost them the contest. Once again, there are tons of turnover on the roster. In his first year as the Cardinals’ head coach, Brohm lost 25 players in the transfer portal but matched that by adding 25 players in the portal. Last year, Brohm added 32 new players in the portal but lost 30 players. In the offseason after last year, Brohm brought in 30 new players in the portal, but lost another 28 players. Perhaps the turnover early in his tenure was understandable given the goal of trying to upgrade the quality of the roster. But continuing to endure this level of turnover does not speak well of the choices they are making. The heavy turnover of the roster from year to year makes it difficult to foster a healthy culture and team chemistry. The former Louisville quarterback has seen the offense improve in his tenure — but the defense is moving in the wrong direction. The offense has four starters back from a unit that generated 449.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.5 Points-Per-Game, which ranked 13th and ninth in the nation. Brohm brought in four wide receivers, three tight ends, and seven offensive linemen in the transfer portal. But the most important transfer on that side of the ball is senior quarterback Miller Moss. The former blue-chip recruit had his moments with USC — but he was inconsistent and finally lost his job after nine starts last year after throwing three interceptions in a game. If he can limit his mistakes, the ceiling is high for the Louisville offense. But the defense only returns five of the 19 players who logged-in 200 or more snaps last season — and they must replace defensive end Ashton Gillotte and cornerback Quincy Riley, who both got drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft.
MISSISSIPPI: With 14 starters back from an 11-2 season and the number one rated transfer class in the country, Ole Miss was poised to challenge for the national championship. They ended that season with a statement victory and offensive explosion against a good Penn State defense in their 38-25 win in the Peach Bowl. Yet a 52-17 loss to Georgia earlier that season in a game where the Bulldogs rushed for over 300 yards demonstrated to head coach Lane Kiffin that there remains a significant talent deficit in their program. In many ways, the Rebels took the next step last season. They got a statement win by redeeming themselves against Georgia. Led by third-year starting quarterback Jaxson Dart, Mississippi generated 526.5 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 38.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking second and third in the nation. Their defense ranked second in the FBS by giving up only 14.4 PPG — and they ranked third in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SPE defensive rating system. Those elite numbers on both sides of the ball usually are rarified air for programs that went on to play for a championship. Instead, Ole Miss lost three games by 13 combined points, which cost them one of the 12 spots in the college football playoff. What has to be infuriating for the Rebels’ faithful is that all three losses were highly regrettable. They opened their SEC campaign by getting upset at home against Kentucky, against a Wildcats team that finished 4-8. They then find a way to lose at LSU in overtime despite never trailing in that game until the final play. In their second-to-last game of the regular season, they got upset on the road at Florida despite being a 13-point favorite — and that bad loss ultimately kept them out of the playoffs. Kiffin lost 18 starters from that team, including Dart and three of his targets in the passing game, who all got drafted into the NFL. The defense lost another five players to the NFL, including three starters on their defensive line. The Rebels led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, but only one of their six players who registered at least 10 tackles for loss is back. Given his strong high school recruiting and his continued commitment to be the “Portal King,” there is plenty of talent on the roster once again this year. Redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons inherits the keys to the offense. He shows great potential after having to take the field in the Georgia game and completing 5 of 6 passes in a touchdown drive. One of the things that makes him an intriguing talent is that he has already earned his undergraduate degree after graduating from high school two years earlier than his senior class (so, no, I am not making a Mississippi joke). But the talent in the wide receiver room seems to have taken a step back (it’s not a great sign when transfers are coming in from Penn State’s underwhelming group of wideouts last year). The offensive line may be an even bigger concern. After returning 222 combined starts last year, this year’s group only has 78 combined starts from one returning starter and the transfers. Cohesion will be an issue -- and the whispers remain that the work rate of Kiffin’s offensive lines over the years can be underwhelming. Third-year defensive coordinator Pete Golding is fantastic — one of the best things Kiffin has done is poaching him away from Nick Saban and Alabama. But that unit is relying exclusively on transfers to replace the four lost starters in the secondary and the four starters on the defensive line. Only two starters and four of the 18 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps are back from that elite defense. And this all leads to the fundamental question regarding Kiffin: Is he an elite coach? Is the Portal King too reliant on looking elsewhere to fill holes? The knock on being too dependent on filling holes with new players outside the program is that it can erode team chemistry and cohesion. New leaders need to step up. Program expectations have to be re-established. Returning players can resent getting replaced. There is less familiarity amongst the players in the locker room. Does this help explain why clunkers like the losses to Kentucky and Florida last year continue to happen to Kiffin? Is it a clue as to how they did not close the deal against LSU? The team culture that Kiffin is propagating is likely this program’s final hurdle to reaching the playoffs and beyond.
NEW MEXICO: After a 4-8 campaign last year, the Lobos lost first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall to fellow Mountain West Conference rival, Utah State. New Mexico turned to the FCS by hiring Idaho head coach Jason Eck. In his three seasons with the Vandals, he turned around a program that had only 15 wins in the previous four seasons by posting a 26-13 record in his tenure — and his team made the FCS playoffs in all three seasons. The former Montana State and South Dakota State offensive line coach has a challenge of transforming a program that has only one winning season in the last 17 years. This season will be a test case in how FCS players can perform at a higher level since the Lobos lost more than 30 players in the transfer portal before Eck brought in 11 players from the Big Sky conference. Junior quarterback Jack Layne will likely run the offense after coming over with Eck from Idaho, passing for 1477 yards with 14 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions last year. The defense surrendered 492.1 Yards-Per-Game and 38.0 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 130th and 129th in the FBS, respectively. Their starters are back to be supported by a plethora of transfers.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment — but they did outgain their opponents by +73 net Yards-Per-Game. They ended their season by beating Fresno State in double overtime by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois is moving away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. The defense will be run by Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, head coach Thomas Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover.
OKLAHOMA STATE: In my last two deep dives on this team, my biggest question has revolved around: “Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull?” After going 10-4 last season and reaching the Big 12 championship game, it could have been easy to conclude that it was just a lull that head coach Mike Gundy pulled them out of in his 20th year with the program. But a look under the hood revealed some red flags that offer caution to getting too optimistic regarding what that team was last year. Despite a 7-2 record in the Big 12, those opponents outgained them by -17 Yards-Per-Game. Their bowl victory against the Aggies was against a heavily depleted roster. The Longhorns completed 76.6% of their passes for a whopping 464 passing yards in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys' defense ranked 122nd in the nation by surrendering 441.8 total YPG. Opponents going up-tempo too often exposed that unit. This season will be revealing since Gundy has 20 starters back. Ten starters are back on defense, along with 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Bowman is back for his seventh and final season to run the offense — and Gordon II bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season. The offensive line returns all five starters and eight overall players who have been full-time starters in the past. Six redshirt super seniors lead that group. The expectation was for this group to return to the Big 12 championship game. Things started well after winning their first three games against non-conference competition. But once Big 12 play started in their fourth, it was a disaster. Oklahoma State lost all of their nine conference games — and they got outgained by -163 net YPG. Their 18-year bowl streak ended in what was the worst season in the Gundy era. It is hard not to come to some difficult conclusions after such a disappointing season. In response, Gundy cleaned house with the coaching staff and hit the transfer portal heavy with about 40 new players entering the program. After taking a chance on a Division II defensive coordinator in Bryan Nardo three years ago, Gundy tapped an experienced veteran in Todd Grantham to run the defense after he coached the defensive line for the New Orleans Saints the last two years. His highly aggressive, blitz-heavy approach has been very successful but burned heavily in his many years at the collegiate level as a defensive coordinator for Florida, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Georgia, The offensive coordinator is Doug Meacham who served as Gundy’s wide receiver/tight end’s coach from 2005-2012 and most recently coaching the wide receivers at TCU from 2020-2024.
RICE: After a 4-8 campaign, the Owls moved off to head coach Mike Holmgren, who had gotten his team to two straight bowls in the previous two seasons before the letdown last year. In comes new head coach Scott Abell, who had great success at Davidson with a 47-28 record. Abell will change the offense from a pro-style attack to a unique up-tempo, no-huddle, spread option attack out of the shotgun that will still rely on the run. Perhaps leaning on a distinct offense makes sense for a program like this. They lost five of their eight games in the American Athletic Conference — but they outgained those opponents by +32 Yards-Per-Game.
TULSA: The Golden Hurricane continued their descent last year with a 3-9 campaign that led to Kevin Wilson getting fired after the second-to-last game in just his second season. Tulsa has lost 23 of their last 33 game after posting a 7-17 record under Wilson. While the former Indiana head coach and Ohio State offensive coordinator found some intriguing players on offense, the defense was a disaster, and the culture inside the program was a mess. They got outscored by 31 Points-Per-Game in their final four game while surrendering 613 Yards-Per-Game. They surrendered 496.8 total YPG for the season, which resulted in 42.0 PPG, ranking 131st and 132nd in the nation. Six of their losses were by 30 or more points. In hindsight, Wilson’s need to air his negative opinions regarding NIL and failure to adapt to the times to establish an NIL program contributed to the negative atmosphere in the building. In comes 35-year-old Tre Lamb, who is considered one of the bright up-and-comers in head coaching. He coached at Gardner-Webb from 2020 to 2023, where he turned that program around and reached the FCS playoffs in his final two seasons there. He moved to East Tennessee State last year, where he inherited a 3-8 team and led them to a 7-4 mark. Tulsa returns only six starters, but an NIL program has been established to help attract and retain talent. Quarterback Kirk Francis looks poised to be the starting quarterback after splitting time last season and getting seven starts while dealing with injuries. How he fits with Lamb’s offensive approach needs to be monitored since he is a pro-style dropback passer. Lamb called the plays for East Tennessee State last year and usually uses mobile quarterbacks. Lamb was very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in three running backs, at least two wide receivers, and eight offensive players to help the offense. On defense, he added 12 transfers, including six defensive linemen who got at least one start at the FBS level last season. The rebuilding challenge Lamb faces is massive, but change was desperately needed.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA STATE: The Sun Devils were one of the most surprising teams in the nation last season after rising from two-straight 3-9 campaigns to making the college football playoff, where they lost to Texas in the quarterfinals by a 39-31 score in two overtimes. Third-year head coach Kenny Dillingham deserves tons of credit for transforming the culture at Arizona State after inheriting a program dealing with NCAA sanctions from the bloated Herm Edwards era. The expectations are very high with 17 starters back from that team. Eight starters are back on offense, led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt and junior wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Leavitt passes for 2885 yards with 24 touchdown passes and only six interceptions — and he added 443 rushing yards on the ground. Tyson caught 75 passes for 1101 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. Four starters are back on the offensive line. The defense returns nine starters and 14 of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year. Dillingham brought in another six transfers, including three who were starters last season. On paper, they appear to be the favorites to once again win the Big 12. But the Sun Devils benefited from a +14 net turnover margin, helped by their offense, which ranked third in the FBS with only nine turnovers. What happens if that regresses? They went 6-2 in games decided by one scoring possession. There certainly is a leadership void that must be addressed. Running back Cam Skattebo was the heart and soul of this team after generating 2316 total yards. He is on to the NFL. The defense lost nickel back Shamari Simmons as well, who was the team’s Most Valuable Player for two straight seasons.
ARMY WEST POINT: In my deep dive on this program two years ago, my biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken had decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the scheme. It took Monken eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point, with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. Last season, this return to their traditional offensive look paid off, big-time. Quarterback Bryson Daily rushed for 1677 non-sack yards in leading Army to a 12-2 record, which included winning the American Athletic Conference title and the Independence Bowl against Louisiana Tech. Their defense ranked eighth and fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in only 15.5 Points-Per-Game. But only nine starters are back from that squad. Daily graduated. Star full back Kante Udoh transferred to Arizona State. After overseeing the Joe Moore award-winning offensive line, offensive line coach Matt Drinkill left to become the head coach at Central Michigan. On defense, edge rusher Elo Modozie transferred to Georgia, and their two starting cornerbacks also entered the transfer portal. But in his twelfth year as head coach, Jeff Monken has led the Black Knights to 8.4 average victories over the last nine seasons.
HOUSTON: The Cougars endured a second-straight 4-8 campaign in the first year under new head coach Willie Fritz. After a 3-3 start in Big 12 play, they lost their final three conference games of the season. The offense was abysmal. They ranked 128th and 132nd in the nation by generating 288.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 14.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 14 points or less in six of their games. Houston’s defense was surprisingly outstanding last year. They ranked 23rd in the nation by only giving up 324.8 total YPG. But that unit lost five of their top six tacklers and returned only four of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Fritz was aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in three new players on the defensive line, four more linebackers, and nine more defensive backs. After defensive coordinator Shiel Wood left to take the same job at Texas Tech, Fritz poached Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to run his defense. He also reunited with Kevin Barbay, his last offensive coordinator at Tulane two years ago, to fix the offense. Former five-star recruit Conner Weigman joined the team from Texas A&M to run the offense. He has 13 career starts in three injury-riddled seasons. A suspect offensive line sees five new players come in from the portal who combined for 68 starts and 4865 snaps.
IOWA: The Hawkeyes finally were forced to abandon nepotism when offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz missed the 25.5 Points-Per-Game mandate by 11.1 points two years ago. Head coach Kirk Ferentz turned to former quarterback and Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester to turn around the offense — and Iowa did score a respectable 27.7 PPG last year, a dramatic +12.3 PPG improvement from two years ago. But that unit only ranked 117th in the nation by generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. I never thought former Michigan transfer Cade McNamara was going to be the answer at quarterback. The Hawkeyes averaged only 131.6 passing YPG last season, ranking 129th in the FBS. Ferentz used the transfer portal again to fill that position by tapping Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State. The four-year starter led his team to back-to-back FCS championships. He could be the best quarterback this team has had since perhaps C.J. Beathard about a decade ago, after accounting for 92 touchdowns in his career. He has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career and run for another 1768 yards. That side of the ball should be better. However, the defense may take a step or two back. It’s simply an issue of a drop-off in talent. Many career backups are finally getting their chance to play in their senior season, which begs the question of why they did not get on the field sooner. Perhaps this group can be coached up. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker is one of the best in the business. But the cracks in the armor are beginning to show. After ranking 17th or better in six straight seasons (with four top-eight results), they dropped to 20th in the nation in total yardage last year despite returning 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 400 snaps the year prior. Depth is becoming a problem on that side of the ball — and that tight rotation from two years ago, where only three backups saw significant playing time, was a red flag even then. Iowa finished 8-5 last year after a 27-24 loss to Missouri in the Music City Bowl. While they finished 6-3 in the Big Ten, they got outgained by -27 net YPG. An opportunistic defense helped them enjoy a +12 net turnover margin, tied for eighth best in the nation. If the defense cannot force many turnovers, then it will be on the offense and Gronowski to cover that gap.
JAMES MADISON: There were plenty of reasons to expect the Dukes to take a step back last year. The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But it was a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State, leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference players on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers is back, and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. In came new head coach Bob Chesney, who was running a successful program at Holy Cross. He oversaw a 9-4 campaign that culminated in a 27-17 victory against Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl, which was the first bowl win in program history. Despite a 4-4 record against Sun Belt Conference opponents, the Dukes outgained those teams by +85.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Only seven starters return from that group, but Chesney is aggressive in the transfer portal. After adding at least 31 players in the portal last year, he has added at least 29 new players in the transfer portal this season. James Madison was fortunate to lead the nation with a +20 net turnover margin last year. It is unreasonable to expect that to happen again. On the other hand, they suffered +3 net upset losses last year. There are questions at quarterback with last year’s starter, Alonza Barrett III, recovering from a leg injury that might delay his availability to start the season. Chesney brought in his former quarterback from his days at Holy Cross, Matthew Sluka, and Cameron Coleman from Richmond. This situation needs to be monitored.
LOUISVILLE: After reaching the ACC Championship Game in his first season coaching the Cardinals, Jeff Brohm saw his team take a step back last year, with Louisville settling for a 9-4 record. All four of their losses were decided by seven points or less — but too often it was bad mistakes late in the game that cost them the contest. Once again, there are tons of turnover on the roster. In his first year as the Cardinals’ head coach, Brohm lost 25 players in the transfer portal but matched that by adding 25 players in the portal. Last year, Brohm added 32 new players in the portal but lost 30 players. In the offseason after last year, Brohm brought in 30 new players in the portal, but lost another 28 players. Perhaps the turnover early in his tenure was understandable given the goal of trying to upgrade the quality of the roster. But continuing to endure this level of turnover does not speak well of the choices they are making. The heavy turnover of the roster from year to year makes it difficult to foster a healthy culture and team chemistry. The former Louisville quarterback has seen the offense improve in his tenure — but the defense is moving in the wrong direction. The offense has four starters back from a unit that generated 449.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.5 Points-Per-Game, which ranked 13th and ninth in the nation. Brohm brought in four wide receivers, three tight ends, and seven offensive linemen in the transfer portal. But the most important transfer on that side of the ball is senior quarterback Miller Moss. The former blue-chip recruit had his moments with USC — but he was inconsistent and finally lost his job after nine starts last year after throwing three interceptions in a game. If he can limit his mistakes, the ceiling is high for the Louisville offense. But the defense only returns five of the 19 players who logged-in 200 or more snaps last season — and they must replace defensive end Ashton Gillotte and cornerback Quincy Riley, who both got drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft.
MISSISSIPPI: With 14 starters back from an 11-2 season and the number one rated transfer class in the country, Ole Miss was poised to challenge for the national championship. They ended that season with a statement victory and offensive explosion against a good Penn State defense in their 38-25 win in the Peach Bowl. Yet a 52-17 loss to Georgia earlier that season in a game where the Bulldogs rushed for over 300 yards demonstrated to head coach Lane Kiffin that there remains a significant talent deficit in their program. In many ways, the Rebels took the next step last season. They got a statement win by redeeming themselves against Georgia. Led by third-year starting quarterback Jaxson Dart, Mississippi generated 526.5 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 38.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking second and third in the nation. Their defense ranked second in the FBS by giving up only 14.4 PPG — and they ranked third in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SPE defensive rating system. Those elite numbers on both sides of the ball usually are rarified air for programs that went on to play for a championship. Instead, Ole Miss lost three games by 13 combined points, which cost them one of the 12 spots in the college football playoff. What has to be infuriating for the Rebels’ faithful is that all three losses were highly regrettable. They opened their SEC campaign by getting upset at home against Kentucky, against a Wildcats team that finished 4-8. They then find a way to lose at LSU in overtime despite never trailing in that game until the final play. In their second-to-last game of the regular season, they got upset on the road at Florida despite being a 13-point favorite — and that bad loss ultimately kept them out of the playoffs. Kiffin lost 18 starters from that team, including Dart and three of his targets in the passing game, who all got drafted into the NFL. The defense lost another five players to the NFL, including three starters on their defensive line. The Rebels led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, but only one of their six players who registered at least 10 tackles for loss is back. Given his strong high school recruiting and his continued commitment to be the “Portal King,” there is plenty of talent on the roster once again this year. Redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons inherits the keys to the offense. He shows great potential after having to take the field in the Georgia game and completing 5 of 6 passes in a touchdown drive. One of the things that makes him an intriguing talent is that he has already earned his undergraduate degree after graduating from high school two years earlier than his senior class (so, no, I am not making a Mississippi joke). But the talent in the wide receiver room seems to have taken a step back (it’s not a great sign when transfers are coming in from Penn State’s underwhelming group of wideouts last year). The offensive line may be an even bigger concern. After returning 222 combined starts last year, this year’s group only has 78 combined starts from one returning starter and the transfers. Cohesion will be an issue -- and the whispers remain that the work rate of Kiffin’s offensive lines over the years can be underwhelming. Third-year defensive coordinator Pete Golding is fantastic — one of the best things Kiffin has done is poaching him away from Nick Saban and Alabama. But that unit is relying exclusively on transfers to replace the four lost starters in the secondary and the four starters on the defensive line. Only two starters and four of the 18 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps are back from that elite defense. And this all leads to the fundamental question regarding Kiffin: Is he an elite coach? Is the Portal King too reliant on looking elsewhere to fill holes? The knock on being too dependent on filling holes with new players outside the program is that it can erode team chemistry and cohesion. New leaders need to step up. Program expectations have to be re-established. Returning players can resent getting replaced. There is less familiarity amongst the players in the locker room. Does this help explain why clunkers like the losses to Kentucky and Florida last year continue to happen to Kiffin? Is it a clue as to how they did not close the deal against LSU? The team culture that Kiffin is propagating is likely this program’s final hurdle to reaching the playoffs and beyond.
NEW MEXICO: After a 4-8 campaign last year, the Lobos lost first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall to fellow Mountain West Conference rival, Utah State. New Mexico turned to the FCS by hiring Idaho head coach Jason Eck. In his three seasons with the Vandals, he turned around a program that had only 15 wins in the previous four seasons by posting a 26-13 record in his tenure — and his team made the FCS playoffs in all three seasons. The former Montana State and South Dakota State offensive line coach has a challenge of transforming a program that has only one winning season in the last 17 years. This season will be a test case in how FCS players can perform at a higher level since the Lobos lost more than 30 players in the transfer portal before Eck brought in 11 players from the Big Sky conference. Junior quarterback Jack Layne will likely run the offense after coming over with Eck from Idaho, passing for 1477 yards with 14 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions last year. The defense surrendered 492.1 Yards-Per-Game and 38.0 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 130th and 129th in the FBS, respectively. Their starters are back to be supported by a plethora of transfers.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies come off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment — but they did outgain their opponents by +73 net Yards-Per-Game. They ended their season by beating Fresno State in double overtime by a 28-20 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois is moving away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. The defense will be run by Rob Harley, who served as the defensive coordinator for Arkansas State in the last four seasons. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, head coach Thomas Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover.
OKLAHOMA STATE: In my last two deep dives on this team, my biggest question has revolved around: “Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull?” After going 10-4 last season and reaching the Big 12 championship game, it could have been easy to conclude that it was just a lull that head coach Mike Gundy pulled them out of in his 20th year with the program. But a look under the hood revealed some red flags that offer caution to getting too optimistic regarding what that team was last year. Despite a 7-2 record in the Big 12, those opponents outgained them by -17 Yards-Per-Game. Their bowl victory against the Aggies was against a heavily depleted roster. The Longhorns completed 76.6% of their passes for a whopping 464 passing yards in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys' defense ranked 122nd in the nation by surrendering 441.8 total YPG. Opponents going up-tempo too often exposed that unit. This season will be revealing since Gundy has 20 starters back. Ten starters are back on defense, along with 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Bowman is back for his seventh and final season to run the offense — and Gordon II bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season. The offensive line returns all five starters and eight overall players who have been full-time starters in the past. Six redshirt super seniors lead that group. The expectation was for this group to return to the Big 12 championship game. Things started well after winning their first three games against non-conference competition. But once Big 12 play started in their fourth, it was a disaster. Oklahoma State lost all of their nine conference games — and they got outgained by -163 net YPG. Their 18-year bowl streak ended in what was the worst season in the Gundy era. It is hard not to come to some difficult conclusions after such a disappointing season. In response, Gundy cleaned house with the coaching staff and hit the transfer portal heavy with about 40 new players entering the program. After taking a chance on a Division II defensive coordinator in Bryan Nardo three years ago, Gundy tapped an experienced veteran in Todd Grantham to run the defense after he coached the defensive line for the New Orleans Saints the last two years. His highly aggressive, blitz-heavy approach has been very successful but burned heavily in his many years at the collegiate level as a defensive coordinator for Florida, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Georgia, The offensive coordinator is Doug Meacham who served as Gundy’s wide receiver/tight end’s coach from 2005-2012 and most recently coaching the wide receivers at TCU from 2020-2024.
RICE: After a 4-8 campaign, the Owls moved off to head coach Mike Holmgren, who had gotten his team to two straight bowls in the previous two seasons before the letdown last year. In comes new head coach Scott Abell, who had great success at Davidson with a 47-28 record. Abell will change the offense from a pro-style attack to a unique up-tempo, no-huddle, spread option attack out of the shotgun that will still rely on the run. Perhaps leaning on a distinct offense makes sense for a program like this. They lost five of their eight games in the American Athletic Conference — but they outgained those opponents by +32 Yards-Per-Game.
TULSA: The Golden Hurricane continued their descent last year with a 3-9 campaign that led to Kevin Wilson getting fired after the second-to-last game in just his second season. Tulsa has lost 23 of their last 33 game after posting a 7-17 record under Wilson. While the former Indiana head coach and Ohio State offensive coordinator found some intriguing players on offense, the defense was a disaster, and the culture inside the program was a mess. They got outscored by 31 Points-Per-Game in their final four game while surrendering 613 Yards-Per-Game. They surrendered 496.8 total YPG for the season, which resulted in 42.0 PPG, ranking 131st and 132nd in the nation. Six of their losses were by 30 or more points. In hindsight, Wilson’s need to air his negative opinions regarding NIL and failure to adapt to the times to establish an NIL program contributed to the negative atmosphere in the building. In comes 35-year-old Tre Lamb, who is considered one of the bright up-and-comers in head coaching. He coached at Gardner-Webb from 2020 to 2023, where he turned that program around and reached the FCS playoffs in his final two seasons there. He moved to East Tennessee State last year, where he inherited a 3-8 team and led them to a 7-4 mark. Tulsa returns only six starters, but an NIL program has been established to help attract and retain talent. Quarterback Kirk Francis looks poised to be the starting quarterback after splitting time last season and getting seven starts while dealing with injuries. How he fits with Lamb’s offensive approach needs to be monitored since he is a pro-style dropback passer. Lamb called the plays for East Tennessee State last year and usually uses mobile quarterbacks. Lamb was very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in three running backs, at least two wide receivers, and eight offensive players to help the offense. On defense, he added 12 transfers, including six defensive linemen who got at least one start at the FBS level last season. The rebuilding challenge Lamb faces is massive, but change was desperately needed.
Best of luck — Frank.
