by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Aug 31, 2025For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA: Brent Brennan endured a far from ideal start in his first season as the head coach for the Wildcats. Jedd Fisch bolted to Washington a month after the season ended to take that head coaching job, and he took most of the coaching staff and several key players with him. Perhaps Arizona was destined to take a step back after their surprising 10-3 mark in 2024, but the late start Brennan had in assembling a coaching staff and dealing with a new roster added to the challenge for the former San Jose State head coach. The Wildcats fell to 4-8 last season in their first year in the Big 12. They got outgained by -104 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play. Nine starters are back from that group, including junior quarterback Noah Fifita. The third-year starter took a step back from his sensational freshman season, throwing 12 interceptions — and he will not have Tetairoa McMillan, who was the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft. After ranking 18th in the nation by scoring 34.6 Points-Per-Game two years ago, Arizona plummeted to 114th in the nation by scoring only 21.8 PPG. They had ranked 20th in total offense for two straight seasons before falling to 96th by averaging only 354.6 total YPG last year. Brennan turned to Marshall's offensive coordinator, Seth Doege, to take over the offense this year. The Mike Leach disciple has installed a new up-tempo Air Raid attack. The defense took a big step back as well by surrendering 413.0 total YPG, ranking 105th in the nation. Injuries hit the unit hard, most notably with three captains at all three levels of the unit limited to only 15 combined games. Against teams ranked outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 60 offenses, the Wildcats held those opponents to 15.5 PPG and just 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. But against teams in the top 60 in SP+ offense, they surrendered 39.9 PPG and 7.0 YPP. Linebackers coach and special teams coordinator, Danny Gonzalez, was promoted to be the new defensive coordinator in the offseason. The former New Mexico head coach and protégé of Rocky Long previously ran defenses at San Diego State and Arizona State. Brennan was very aggressive in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — but he is banking much of that success to come from standouts at the FCS level who can make the transition to Power Four conference competition.
AUBURN: For the second-straight season, head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. The defense was much improved under first-year defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Auburn held their opponents to 330.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 21.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking 31st and 28th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, the wide receiver and offensive line rooms appear stacked. The question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500.
BAYLOR: Ever since the Bears won the Big 12 Championship in 2021, my seasonal deep dives into this team included the speculation over whether that achievement was a fluke under head coach Dave Aranda. The next two seasons were both losing campaigns with Baylor posting a 9-16 record. Aranda went into the offseason for the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season. Baylor ended the year with an 8-5 record after a 44-31 loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. But as I seem to point out every year at this time: “Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears.” His defense hit rock bottom two years ago by ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. But the Baylor defense only took small steps forward by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. In terms of total yardage, only one of Aranda’s defenses has ranked inside the top 48 in the nation in his five years. While there may be a problem matching his sophisticated schemes with the talent on the roster, there are significant problems in both recruiting high-end talent and simple player development for those on the roster. Once again, Aranda was highly aggressive in the transfer portal, a tactic that has not really worked yet. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball — but he’s the one who hired the bums! The offense should once again be dynamic — but they lost three games last year despite scoring at least 28 points. In their Big 12 championship run in 2021, an opportunistic defense helped them rank tied for sixth in the country with a +12 net turnover margin — but they only ranked 31st in total defense by giving up 345.9 total YPG. Baylor will likely go only as far as their defense allows them.
CENTRAL FLORIDA: The Knights have just a 10-15 record the last two years — both losing seasons — which coincides with the uptick in competition by leaving the American Athletic Conference for the Big 12. Central Florida went 3-6 in their first season in the Big 12 despite outgaining those opponents by +21 net Yards-Per-Game. Last year, they dropped to 2-6 in conference action despite ranking second in the Big 12 by outgaining those opponents by +78 net YPG. What does it say that four-year head coach Gus Malzahn left the program in the offseason because he considered the offensive coordinator job at Florida State to be more enticing? The administration dipped back into their glory days and hired back Scott Frost as their next head coach after overseeing a 13-0 record and a self-proclaimed national championship in 2017-18. I am skeptical. Frost was a disaster in his four years as the head coach at his alma mater, Nebraska. The culture he cultivated was highly negative — and the Cornhuskers had a horrific record in games decided by one scoring possession, which I think became a result of his players expecting to find ways to lose. Fresh starts are good, but I am very worried about how a cocky head coach whose hubris was a problem at his alma mater rediscovers some healthy humility and perspective at the place where he was considered a hero? The circumstances seem ripe to enable Frost’s worst tendencies. The roster is almost brand new as well, with at least 67 new players on the team in the summer. Even for well-respected culture builders, this would be a tough challenge. Frost did it once here — but that was when they were playing the American Athletic Conference. The question remains whether Central Florida has the resources to compete with the best teams in the Big 12. Even with the influx of transfers, the offensive line, as well as the back seven on defense, are significant question marks.
COASTAL CAROLINA: The Chanticleers took a step back last season with a 6-7 record after losing to UTSA in the Myrtle Beach Bowl by a 44-15 score. Entering his third year as head coach, Tim Beck saw more than 40 players leave the program in the transfer portal. After bringing in at least 66 new players to the roster last season, he brought in at least 67 new players this year. It is tough to conduct business and develop team chemistry and cohesion in a turnstile so crowded. On the other hand, perhaps the turnover of so many players was necessary. Coastal Carolina surrendered 413.8 total Yards-Per-Game last season, which resulted in 31.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 106th in the nation in both categories. Of the 24 players who got at least one start on defense last year, only six return. At least 19 new players are on the defensive roster, ranging from Power Four programs to the Group of Five to the FCS. Beck did add five players who registered at least five tackles for loss for their team last season. The offense lost quarterbacks Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim to the transfer portal, but redshirt sophomore Ted Hudson returns after starting in the bowl game. Beck brought in junior M.J. Morris from Maryland and Emmett Brown from San Jose State to compete for the starting quarterback job. He brought in new talent to compete at running back and wide receiver as well. The offensive line returns six players with starting experience before Beck added four transfers and a junior college transfer. With so much turnover, it will be difficult to initially evaluate this squad. But after getting outgained in the Sun Belt Conference by -56 net YPG, the Chanticleers are trending in the wrong direction.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers became Exhibit A last season for how quickly a serious NIL program can transform a football team using the transfer portal. First-year head coach Curt Cignetti transformed Indiana into James Madison West with 13 players joining him from the previous season’s Dukes team. In all, Cignetti brought in 30 transfers, which took advantage of a softer schedule to make the college football playoff, where their 11-2 season ended in a 27-17 loss at Notre Dame in the first round. The Hoosiers had only won nine combined games in the three previous years. Cignetti only has eight starters back from that group, but he once again was aggressive in the transfer portal to fill holes on both sides of the ball. Kurtis Rourke moved on to the NFL, but Cignetti brought in Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza to replace him. The junior completed 68.7% of his passes for 3004 passing yards despite playing behind a porous offensive line. Indiana ranked second in the nation last year by scoring 41.3 Points-Per-Game. Their defense ranked sixth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 15.6 PPG — and Cignetti returns three players at all three levels of the unit that were both All-Americans and first-team Big Ten selections: defensive end Mikhail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. All three of those leaders played for Cignetti at James Madison — and transfers joined all three of their position rooms. Indiana enjoyed a +15 net turnover margin last season, which ranked fourth best in the nation. Replicating that accomplishment may be difficult — but this roster may be better than the one that lost to the Fighting Irish in the playoffs.
KENTUCKY: After six straight losing seasons, head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to eight-straight bowl games — but that streak got snapped last year in their 4-8 season. Kentucky lost their final five games against FBS opponents by at least 20 points in each contest. They went 1-7 against SEC opponents and got outgained by -100 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have a 7-18 record against the SEC since 2021. The team is losing its identity of toughness under Stoops, with both sides of the line of scrimmage too often getting outmuscled. Stoops has become more reliant on the transfer portal — but last year’s incomers mostly failed. He bought at least 26 transfers this year — but he may be losing in the portal wars after losing wide receivers, Dane Keys and Barrion Brown, along with most guard and former 5-star recruit, Keeshawn Silver, to other FBS programs. Stoops did bring in six players in the portal to bolster the offensive line, but three were from Group of Five programs, a concern given their SEC schedule. The Wildcats averaged only 330.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 20.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 114th and 119th in the nation. Stoops' big swing was to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Zach Caldada to lead the offense. He threw for 6342 passing yards in the last two seasons at Incarnate Word — but he failed to succeed in this conference before that at Texas A&M and then Auburn. The defense lost six players to the NFL, including two who got drafted in the first four rounds. Seven of the nine players in the front six who logged-in at least 200 snaps are gone. Stoops did bring in defensive end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, who might have been the best player in the FCS after registering 18.5 tackles for loss at South Dakota last season. But for every step forward Stoops takes with the quality of the roster, attrition to the NFL or poaching from other Power Four programs seems to result in two steps back.
MARYLAND: After two straight 8-5 campaigns and three straight bowl victories, the Terrapins took a step back last year in a 4-8 season that ended with five straight losses. Head coach Mike Locksley admitted he lost the locker room due to NIL issues. It is a delicate balance between using limited NIL funds to entice younger talented players into the program at the expense of the more established players — and Locksley conceded that his attempt to thread that needle did not work out. Maryland was one of the hardest hit Power Four conference programs in the transfer portal — including seeing linebackers Caleb Wheatland and Kellan Wyatt leave the program after spring practice. Top-end starters were raided by other Power Four programs, and even backups were lost to Group of Five programs. Locksley has compared his situation at Maryland to that of Macy’s department stores, which have to compete against both the high-end Saks Fifth Avenue college football teams attempting to poach his top talent as well as the discount store programs offering more playing time to his younger backups. Locksley continues to recruit very well — and he cleaned house with his assistant coaches by bringing in two NFL veterans, Pep Hamilton and Ted Monachino, as his new offensive and defensive coordinators. Just four starters are back from last season — and Locksley did add several likely starters in the transfer portal. The Terrapins have talent — but the starters will be young given the losses in the transfer portal. The team also lost six players to the NFL in the offseason, which Locksley is using to demonstrate that his program is successful in getting players to the next level.
MICHIGAN: In my deep dive on the Wolverines last preseason, I concluded by observing: “Michigan’s defense will remain very good — and the offense has talent. How far this team will go depends on how good of play they will get at quarterback.” Well, the quarterback play was abysmal. Alex Orgi was unable to move the ball with his arm. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell was unable to design a wildcat styled attack where Orgi was mostly to ask to run the football. Perhaps Orgi was incapable of executing schemes more sophisticated than “run right” or “run left.” It begs the question as to how could first-year head coach Sherrone Moore allow the quarterback room to be so substandard. In hindsight, Plan A may have been to rely on seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle in a scheme similar to what they operated with J.J. McCarthy when winning the national championship the prior year. The former Indiana transfer was a blue-chip recruit for Utah — but injuries plagued him throughout his career and kept him out of fall camp. He got time during the season and started against Illinois before suffering another injury, which prompted him to retire in late October. Ultimately, Davis Warren was named the starting quarterback out of camp and ended the year as the starter. The former walk-on was a nice story as a survivor of Leukemia after a promising beginning to his high school career — but he simply had not played much competitive football for several years before suddenly being the starter in the Big House playing Texas. Maybe Moore and his coaching staff simply became overconfident that they could make anybody succeed at QB under their tutelage. Lesson learned as Moore attacked the transfer portal with the diligence of never letting that quarterback nightmare happen again. He brought in senior Mikey Keene from Fresno State, who has been an effective gunslinger in the past — and after Keene missed spring practice due to an injury, Moore then tapped former East Carolina starter Jake Garcia to come in as a graduate transfer. Orji transferred to UNLV, but Warren is still around, as is sophomore Jordyn Davis, who was a four-star recruit who was considered too small to be considered as a viable option last year. But the future of the offense — sooner or later — will be in the hands of freshman Bryce Underwood, who was widely considered the top high school recruit in the country. Originally an LSU recruit despite playing high school in Michigan, the Wolverines flipped him after maintaining a full-court press in recruiting him, with the deal finally being sealed when billionaire Oracle owner Larry Ellison agreed to write a check for $10-12 million as a favor to his Michigan alum wife. It is difficult to judge the rest of the offense last season since the passing attack was so dismal. Moore added running back Justice Haynes from Alabama and All-Big Ten wide receiver Donovan McCulley from Indiana to infuse more talent at the skill positions. Moore also moved on from Cameron and brought in North Carolina offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to run the offense. The former Troy head coach is a well-respected offensive mind who should help in the passing game without abandoning the Wolverines’ desire to deploy smash mouth football when they desire it. Yet despite ranking 131st in the nation by averaging only 129.1 passing Yards-Per-Game, Michigan still ended the season by upsetting Ohio State and Alabama to finish a respectable 8-5. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had some early hiccups moving from the NFL to the college ranks — but his defense surrendered only two touchdowns in their final 14 quarters despite the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide representing over half that span. The Wolverines replace four players drafted into the NFL (including defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, who were both selected in the first 13 picks) — but all four of those players opted out of their bowl game victory against Alabama. Michigan should once again boast one of the best defenses in the country, as that side of the ball has grown accustomed to reloading rather than rebuilding. The quarterback play will be better — but as I concluded last year, how quickly that position stabilizes will determine how far this team can go this season.
MISSISSIPPI STATE: I was worried that the Bulldogs were destined to take another step back last season, as I wrote: “The Bulldogs' lack of an established NIL program has them falling behind their in-state rivals, Ole Miss, in recruiting, and they may have to take another step back before they can begin rebuilding this program in earnest.” Sure enough, they bottomed out with a 2-10 record with their only victories being against UMass and Eastern Kentucky. As I also wrote last year: Mississippi State has “found success in the brutal SEC when they have been able to match great coaching with unique schemes that can catch the big dogs off guard in the conference grind. The sudden death of third-year head coach Mike Leach, who checked those boxes, was devastating to this program.” Where does that now leave second-year head coach Jeff Lebby? Well, for starters, desperate to improve a defense that surrendered 456.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game, ranking 125th and 117th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, former Baylor transfer Blake Shapen missed the last eight games of the season due to a shoulder injury — but he did rank fourth in Pro Football Focus’ Passer Grade Rankings at that point, so there is reason for optimism that the offense can improve with him back under center. Lebby hit the transfer portal hard with the most newcomers in the SEC — and he also brought in over ten junior college transfers. But the defensive line was the worst in the SEC, and the offensive line was the weak link last season. Lebby worked very hard to improve the size of both sides of the line of scrimmage — but establishing and maintaining depth at the offensive and defensive lines is the biggest challenge for programs like this, especially when they are in decline.
MISSOURI STATE: The Bears make the jump from the FCS to Conference USA this season, having not defeated a FBS opponent since 1990. But don’t expect this team to be intimidated by the jump in competition after playing in the Missouri Valley Conference against perennial FBS powers, North Dakota State and South Dakota State, who compare favorably to the best teams in Conference USA. Third-year head coach Ryan Beard returns 10 starters from last year’s 8-4 squad that finished 6-2 in the Missouri Valley. Seventh-year senior Jacob Clark returns at quarterback after completing 69.4% of his passes for 3604 passing yards last season, which could make this Missouri State team dangerous. The defense ranked only 83rd in the FCS by surrendering 391.7 Yards-Per-Game last season — and they lost their top two pass rushers, both starting linebackers, and their top three cornerbacks from that group either to graduation or the transfer portal. But Beard was intent on getting both sides of the line of scrimmage bigger in the offseason in preparation for the move to the FBS.
NEVADA: First-year head coach Jeff Choate got the most out of his talent last season. The Wolf Pack opened the season with a 3-4 mark, which included upset victories against Oregon State and Troy, along with a narrow 29-24 loss to a playoff-bound SMU. They also played playoff-bound Boise State tough in a 28-21 loss. But they lost their last six games of the season — and while going 2-6 in games decided by one possession is often a sign of some bad luck, too often this Nevada team lacked discipline and made mistakes late in the game that cost them dearly. Despite a winless record in their seven games in the Mountain West Conference, they only got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Choate has a good track record as the head of Montana State and then the defensive coordinator for Texas. But this is a very tough assignment. This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. With the 3-10 record last year, the Wolf Pack has endured three-straight ten-loss seasons — and they are just 7-30 during that span. It has been hard for Choate to keep up in the transfer portal — notably this offseason, he lost quarterback Brandon Lewis to Memphis and left tackle (and potential first-round pick) Isaiah World to Oregon. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to the Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Choate is working hard. He brought in seven players with FBS starting experience — but his pivot this offseason was to target more players from FCS programs that have intriguing upside with the jump in competition. Sixth-year season (and Brock’s younger brother) Chubba Purdy is expected to start under center. The defense lost 10 starters and six of their top seven tacklers. This unit needs to generate more big plays. They only registered 14 sacks and 17 takeaways — and the players responsible for 11.5 of those sacks and 12 of those turnovers are now off the roster. But after inheriting a team that got outscored by 16.1 net Points-Per-Game, Nevada only got outscored by -5.7 net PPG last season. Choate is probably going to push enough of the right buttons to get his group to overachieve once again.
NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats seemed destined to take a step back last season after David Braun pulled a near-miracle as the interim head coach, overseeing an 8-5 season. He inherited a team that had lost 17 of their last 18 games, which had then fired their head coach of 17 seasons, Pat Fitzgerald, for the hazing scandal that pervaded the squad. But that Northwestern team pulled off five upset victories that year and posted a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They completely flipped the script on turnovers, going from a -19 net turnover margin in 2022, which was the worst mark in the nation, to a +13 net turnover margin last season, ranking third in the FBS. A +32 turnaround in turnovers from one season to the next is unheard of. That helped the Wildcats overcome getting outgained by -36.9 net YPG. The turnaround was spurred by their defense that allowed 22.5 Points-Per-Game and ranked 35th in the nation by surrendering just 340.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Last year, the defense was not quite as good as they allowed 26.3 PPG and ranked 56th in the nation by giving up 361.8 total YPG. But Braun’s assignment in his third year as head coach is to get the offense going after they ranked 128th and 130th in the country by scoring just 17.8 PPG and generating only 284.4 total YPG. He made a nice splash in the transfer portal by bringing over graduate senior Preston Stone from SMU, who had a 13-3 record as a starter for the Mustangs. After a big 2023, Stone struggled early last season and eventually got benched for Kevin Jennings, who led SMU to the playoffs. But Stone still has a big arm, having thrown 35 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions in his career. With two quality transfers coming in on the offensive line, Northwestern has more depth on that unit than in recent years. The Wildcats took some hits in the transfer portal, as that area will continue to be a challenge given the tough admission standards for the university. But Braun rescued this program two years ago and has brought it back to respectability in a very difficult conference. If the offense can score at least another touchdown per game, then Northwestern will be dangerous.
NOTRE DAME: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience with a turn as a head coach in college — but Ash’s resume is not nearly as impressive as Golden’s in all those iterations. The last time Ash had his fingerprints on a top 10 NFL defense or a top 40 collegiate defense was 2015. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.”
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes pushed all their chips in to win the National Championship last season with four stars on defensive bypassing the NFL to return for a final season — and despite losses to Oregon and Michigan in the regular season, they peaked at the right time of the season by outscoring their opponents by a 36-19 margin in their four playoff games to accomplish their ultimate objective. Once again, the roster is loaded with talent — but there are far more questions than answers regarding how this year’s team will fare against elite competition. With only eight starters from last year’s team back, new leaders will have to emerge to help manage adversity. The defense lost nine players to the NFL. Free safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country — but the defensive line is the biggest question on that side of the ball, with depth at defensive tackle being a real concern. The offense lost senior quarterback Will Howard as well as running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL. Second-year freshman quarterback Julian Sayin most certainly has higher upside than Howard, but he is wet under the years. Led by the phenomenal sophomore Jeremiah Smith, the wide receiver room is loaded, but how quickly Sayin can take advantage of this group remains a question. The offensive line lost two starters to the NFL after being the weak link of this unit against their top competition (ask Michigan). Henderson and Judkins' innate talent out of the backfield helped neutralize this weakness in the playoffs, but Ohio State is starting over with their backfield now. What helped the Buckeyes rebound from the late-season loss to the Wolverines was their veteran coaching staff, with Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator and Jim Knowles running the defense to support all the criticism Ryan Day was receiving. Now Kelly is the OC for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Knowles defected to run the Penn State defense. Day re-installed Brian Hartline as the offensive coordinator after being demoted back to just the tight ends coach last year. Hartline has been an assistant offensive coach here since 2017. I do like that Day is not going back to calling plays — outside of Andy Reid, all these offensive coaches are better served concentrating on running the entire team and avoiding the allure to also free-lance and call every offensive play. Deferring the play-calling to Kelly last year was prudent — and now giving those duties to Hartline is the best long-term move. But Hartline is a first-time play-caller. On the other side of the ball is now Matt Patricia. I don’t love what it says that Knowles did not want to stay with the program where he oversaw the best scoring defense and total defense in the nation. Patricia is undoubtedly a brilliant defensive mind. I even defended Bill Belichick’s decision to anoint him the offensive coordinator for New England by buying the argument that teachers teach. But Patricia has mostly been a complete failure when outside the purview of Belichick as his defensive coordinator. His time as the Detroit Lions’ head coach was a disaster, and after helping to orchestrate the ousting of defensive coordinator Sean Desai to take over the Philadelphia Eagles' defense two years ago, the result was the team hitting rock bottom in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. When the Eagles cut ties with Patricia last offseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I have serious reservations that Patricia can (a) nurture collegiate talent and (b) tailor his sophisticated schemes to the collegiate level. Day finally has a national title under his belt, but I am not sure he has the leadership skills to handle the challenges of two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Losing 15 players to the NFL is tough for any team to overcome. However, with the new expanded playoff system, Ohio State may be an intriguing team to reconsider once the postseason begins.
OLD DOMINION: Credit head coach Ricky Rahne for keeping this team competitive. After playing 11 games decided by one scoring possession two years ago, losing five of those games in a 6-7 season, the Monarchs lost six games by eight points or less in their 5-7 campaign last year. There is reason for optimism after the former Penn State offensive coordinator developed dual-threat Colton Joseph under center last year. The returning redshirt sophomore led the Sun Belt Conference in total offense last year. Both sides of the line of scrimmage improved last season, which suggests Rahne is successfully identifying talent in recruiting and the transfer portal after struggling in those areas early in his tenure. The offense registered +54.5 more Yards-Per-Game and +4.2 Points-Per-Game on offense last year. The defense has six starters back, but should be much improved if former All-American tackling machine Jason Henderson can return from the knee injury that kept him out for all but one game last season.
PENN STATE: The Nittany Lions are a trendy national champion pick in many circles as they resemble the profile of Michigan and Ohio State, who won the last two national titles by returning veteran squads loaded with talent that bypassed the NFL to come back to school because of unfinished business. Penn State might have the best backfield in the nation with senior quarterback Drew Allar, along with running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Four starters return on the offensive line. The defense has returning stars at all three levels — and head coach James Franklin pulled off a coup after defensive coordinator Tom Allen defected to Clemson by poaching Ohio State’s defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. But there are plenty of red flags. The defense lost four players to the NFL, including their outstanding pass rusher, Abdul Carter, who was the third pick in the NFL draft. Only eight of the 17 players who logged in 300 or more snaps last year are back. Depth concerns exist at defensive tackle and linebacker. That unit surrendered 45 points against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game after letting USC score 30 points against them earlier in the season — and Notre Dame scored 27 points in their three-point loss to the Fighting Irish in the college football semifinals. In their three losses last year, the Nittany Lions got only eight combined catches from their wide receivers. Franklin tried to finally address that deficiency in the transfer portal by bringing in Kyron Hudson from USC, Devonte Ross from Troy, and Trebor Pena from Syracuse — and those three wide receivers combined for 198 receptions for 2446 receiving yards and 23 touchdown catches. But Allar will not have tight end Tyler Warren, who left for the NFL after catching 104 balls last season for 1233 yards and eight touchdowns. Allar completed 73.7% of his passes last year — but that mark dropped to just 60% in the playoffs. He is being anointed by many observers as the best quarterback in the country. Did these folks watch the Notre Dame game? Penn State’s potential game-winning drive late in that game ended in an interception. Allar also struggled in a 20-13 loss against Ohio State. What was the Nittany Lions’ best victory last season? Boise State? SMU? Illinois? This remains a program that is winless against Michigan and the Buckeyes in their last seven contests against them in the last three seasons. They lost both their games to the Ducks and Fighting Irish last year. Penn State under Franklin’s leadership may simply be flat-track bullies. In the last three seasons, the Nittany Lions have a 34-2 straight-up record when favored — and they are 27-0 straight-up when favored by six or more points in those games. But in their six games as an underdog during that span, they have failed to pull off even one upset.
PURDUE: The Boilermakers hit rock bottom last season in head coach Ryan Walters’ second year with the program. They finished with a 1-11 record and lost all nine of their games in the Big Ten, where they got outscored by 30 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -192 Yards-Per-Game. The defense surrendered 44 PPG and 479 YPG against FBS opponents. Walters fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell before October and actually began calling the offense himself despite having never done that as a defensive coach (and Purdue scored 49 points in a one-point loss in double-overtime at Illinois in his debut, although they would later get shut out three times with him still calling the offensive plays). Needless to say, Walters was fired at the end of the season, and 29 players left the program in the transfer portal. The Boilermakers turned to UNLV head coach Barry Odom to attempt to pull off a similar miracle he did with the Rebels the last two seasons. He inherited a lost UNLV program that had enjoyed just one winning season in 22 years, but he immediately turned them around using the transfer portal and posted a 20-8 record in his two years. It is almost a complete roster overhaul with more than 50 players both leaving and entering the program. Odom brought in 29 new players for spring practice — and then 28 players left after that session ended, with at least 28 new players being added after that. The defense was completely reset again after spring practice — so the real work for that unit only began in fall practice. Odom has earned the benefit of the doubt and certainly knows what he is looking for — but this is a very tough assignment that will take time to fix.
SOUTH CAROLINA: After their first losing season in the three seasons under head coach Shane Beamer, the Gamecocks broke out with a 9-4 campaign that included winning their final six regular season contests, headlined by four victories against ranked opponents. With a 9-3 record, South Carolina had a legitimate case that they should have played the college football playoffs. Blown fourth quarter leads in losses against Alabama and LSU cost them the chance to play for the national championship. The setback against the Tigers was particularly frustrating since they had a 17-point lead at one point and lost their redshirt freshman phenom at quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, to injury in the second half of the game. The offense lost seven starters, but Sellers is back for likely his last year in college before going to the pros. With his cannon of an arm, a 6’3 and 240-lb frame, and dual-threat rushing skills, he is the potential number one pick in April’s draft. On the other hand, the 20-year-old needs to demonstrate that his inconsistencies were primarily due to his inexperience. He committed too many turnovers early in the season. He took too many sacks. He only ranked 42nd in the nation in Total QBR. But he completed 65.6% of his passes, passed for 2534 yards, rushed for another 674 yards, and accounted for 25 total touchdowns. The defense was outstanding last season by holding their opponents to 316.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 18.1 Points-Per-Game, ranking 16th and 12th in the nation. But that unit only returns four starters with eight players now gone to the NFL, including three from the defensive line that got drafted in the first four rounds of the draft. Beamer saw five of his players drafted into the NFL and another nine players signed as undrafted free agents. He played the transfer portal well last year to improve the talent base on the roster — but he had to do that again last offseason. The defense is likely to take a step back, and their outstanding special teams unit is replacing their key contributors. But if Sellers takes the next step in his development, the Gamecocks will be very dangerous.
TCU: The Horned Frogs started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Hoover will not have a trio of NFL-bound wide receivers after Jack Bech, Savion Williams, and J.P. Richardson moved on to the next level — they combined for 179 receptions, 2378 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover.
TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era, when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16, is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 13-42 in the last five seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure — but he got trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players that got developed, then left the program for greener pastures. After three straight 3-9 seasons, the Temple administration moved on from Drayton. They only gained 308.8 total Yards-Per-Game on offense, which resulted in 19.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 125th and 121st in the nation. They also gave up 417.8 total YPG, which resulted in 35.4 PPG, ranking 112th and 123rd in the FBS. There was a notion that the culture was beginning to turn the corner in his tenure, but the Owls also suffered a -41 net turnover margin in his three seasons with opposing coaching anonymously claiming that the team could be compelled to quit if they fell behind on the scoreboard. Temple tapped 65-year-old K.C. Keeler as their next head coach. He won FCS titles at both Delaware and Sam Houston, where he posted a 271-112-1 record and shepherded their transition to the FBS two years ago. His Bearkats posted a 10-3 record last year in their second season at the FBS level. Keeler has a proven track record as a culture builder, which is what is needed at this program — but the challenge is massive. Only seven starters return with Keeler working the transfer portal on both sides of the ball to fill out the roster. The defense should improve under defensive coordinator Brian L. Smith, who is familiar with Conference USA competition as the defensive coordinator at Rice for the last seven seasons. The defensive front and secondary could be respectable given the additions in the portal.
TENNESSEE: The Volunteers come off their first appearance in the College Football Playoff, albeit in a 42-17 loss at Ohio State. And then in NIL drama, they lost their former five-star sophomore quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, in the transfer portal after UCLA was willing to offer him more money. I don’t know how devastating this loss was to the program. As a freshman, Iamaleava was up and down. On the other hand, the ceiling regarding his talent seemed to be high — and starting as a redshirt freshman last year provided him valuable experience. Head coach Josh Heupel essentially traded quarterbacks with the Bruins, with senior Joey Aguilar re-transferring from UCLA to Tennessee after the Iamaleava move. Aguilar was a two-year starter at Appalachian State, where he threw for 6770 yards and 56 touchdowns the last two seasons. He is a better scrambler than Iamaleava. However, his 24 interceptions over the last two seasons, including 14 picks last year, are issues. Only three starters are back on offense, with the four starters lost on the offensive line, running back and SEC Offensive Player of the Year, Dylan Sampson, getting drafted into the NFL, and the wide receiver room filled with freshmen and sophomores. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks oversaw an outstanding unit that held their opponents to 293.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game for those foes, ranking sixth and seventh in the nation. The Volunteers lost defensive end James Pearce Jr. to the first round of the NFL draft along with three of their top four defensive tackles, but they do return eight starters and 12 of the 25 players who logged-in at least 150 snaps last season. Banks is doing a great job as his defenses have improved each season. They have an elite cornerback duo in Jermod McCoy, a second-team All-American, and Rickey Gibson III. Sophomore Boo Carter, who plays the star linebacker/safety hybrid position, is a rising superstar who may also get snaps on offense. The offense has declined since 2022, when the Volunteers led the nation in both scoring and total offense. That might be because defenses are giving Heupel’s offenses the Patrick Mahomes treatment of two high safeties to take away the big play. On the other hand, perhaps the explanation is that Heupel has not had as good a quarterback under center than Hendon Hooker in his senior season (Joe Milton is a tease before Jim Harbaugh, the New England Patriots last year, and even Heupel when he benched him for Hoooker back inn 2021 all learn to move on from, making Milton perfect for the Dallas Cowboys now; Iamaleava was just a redshirt freshman last year, after showing more in the previous bowl game than Milton did all season). Heupel clearly deserves credit for one thing: in leading Tennessee to top ten seasons in his first four years, his 2022 team was defined by that explosive offense before last year’s team was defense-first. The ability to win with different identities of his team is a strong endorsement for Heupel, moving forward.
TEXAS: The Longhorns are many pundits' pick to win the national championship after getting so close the last two seasons in losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Washington two years ago and then in a 28-14 loss to Ohio State in a contest that was much closer than the final score. Fifth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in the top high school class in the nation in 2025. Between his recruiting, his winning the transfer window by targeting specific talent to fill holes while retaining the vast majority of his roster, and the university’s strong commitment to its NIL program, Texas may be leading the way in how to thrive in the new competitive environment. And now they begin the Arch Manning era. Manning has dual-threat skills with mobility that is reminiscent of his grandfather, Archie, who had a long NFL career as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. His accuracy on deep balls brings a new dynamic to the offense that was not available the last two seasons with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. It may be very possible that Manning under center unlocks new levels of Sarkisian’s offensive genius that were held back the last two seasons. But that’s kinda where the rub starts for me. If all that is true, then why didn’t Manning win the job last year? Or more specifically, why did Sarkisian never pull the Nick Saban move as he did when he was the offensive coordinator for Alabama and turn to Manning in the second half of a big game like Saban did when he benched Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of their national championship comeback victory against Georgia? Is the cart leading the horse when it comes to the monumental hype regarding this next generation of a Manning at quarterback? He got fooled at times when he took the field last year against Georgia, Florida, and even UL-Monroe. The pressure he is going to be dealing with regarding the microscope he will be under will be tremendous. Maybe Sark knows something we do not yet appreciate — and that is why he stuck with Ewers. One could say he wanted to stay loyal to Ewers — but I simply buy that at all from the guy who declared his team’s 2024-25 season mantra to be “obsessed”. That’s kinda creepy. Which brings up this topic: what was Texas’ best win last season? Clemson? Arizona State? Michigan? Oklahoma? Is it telling that the Longhorns lost both their games against Alabama before losing to the Buckeyes? Sarkisian does have a reputation for not being able to win big games. Is the playoff expansion now hiding what might be a serious criticism? In hindsight, traveling to Ann Arbor to beat a Michigan team without a quarterback who could complete a forward pass in September was not nearly as big a statement as it seemed at the time. Congrats on beating the best team in the ACC. And the Sun Devils. And the flip side of bringing in so much great talent is the challenge that Alabama and Georgia have encountered for years: the expectation of simply reloading, without the room for some rebuilding. Texas had 14 players invited to the NFL scouting combine — and 12 of those players were drafted. Those 14 players drafted into the NFL broke their previous record of 11 players drafted into the NFL just the year before. The defense is getting decimated. After losing defensive tackles to the first two rounds of the NFL draft last year, they lost five defensive players in the first four rounds of the NFL draft last April. Just at defensive tackle, they lost eight players from last year, including five of the top six on their depth chart, with two of them being drafted early into the NFL. Are we sure that this program is now at the confident “next!” stage of developing NFL talent? Sarkisian did identify this area of need by bringing in five transfers with starting experience for the defensive line room. But perhaps the biggest question mark is the line on the other side of the ball after losing four starters on the offensive line from last year. This will be a young group. Perhaps having established chemistry and synergy with Manning, taking the second team reps with them will pay dividends. But in their three losses last season, the Longhorns’ running backs averaged only 1.3 Yards-Per-Carry without a touchdown as they lost the battle at the line of scrimmage to Georgia (twice) and Ohio State. Maybe the Arch Manning era is the final piece of the puzzle for this Texas program (and Sark). But if the same nagging problems continue, the seed of the problems was evident.
UCLA: In the first season in the Big Ten, rookie head coach DeShaun Foster oversaw a 5-7 campaign where his team won four of their last six games. After the offense only generated 328.8 total YPG and 18.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 118th and 126th in the nation, he let go of offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and scored a bit of a coup by bringing in Indiana offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri. And then after an NIL dispute with the University of Tennessee, Foster landed redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal to potentially give them a potent dual-threat at quarterback after spring practice. Six starters return on offense to complement Iamaleava and Sunseri. On the other side of the ball, only two of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back. Foster did bring in 10 transfers on defense.
USC: It is hard not to have Lincoln Riley fatigue. The “quarterback whisperer” has overseen a 15-13 record in his last 28 games at USC. It seems like he threw last year’s starting quarterback, Miller Moss, under the bus late in the year by benching him for former UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. The move fits into an evolving narrative that, with Riley, it’s always someone else’s fault, whether it be Moss, the lack of an NIL commitment at USC, or outdated facilities at USC. No one made you leave Oklahoma to take the job! At this point, the past failings of Riley’s teams are evident. His defenses are afterthoughts. He takes the building of the offensive line for granted. But simply accepting these narratives might be a mistake for bettors this season. The Trojans lost five of their six games by just 19 combined points. USC loyalists can point to five defining plays that keep their team from an 11-1 record. Of course, “what if” is often the mantra of losers — and perhaps finding ways to lose close games should be an indictment of Riley’s culture and game management. Or, it might mean that the Trojans are closer to college football playoff relevance than their previous 28 games suggest. Credit Riley for increased attention to developing size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. He resisted the allure of the quick fix sugar high of the transfer portal by bringing in only 16 new players, with less than half being seniors. Using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics, the defense improved from 105th to 45th last year under first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. A monster 2026 freshman recruiting class looms. Playing in the Big Ten has exposed this program a bit, which suffered unexpected losses against Maryland and Minnesota, who were more than happy to register signature wins against this supposed blue blood program. But if Riley is patiently remodeling his program to mimic that of Ohio State, Michigan, and Ohio State, the results should eventually arrive for this West Coast power.
UTAH: Expectations were very high for the Utes in their first season in the Big 12 — but much of the optimism rested on getting back quarterback Cameron Rising for his seventh and final season coming off an ACL tear in the 2024 Rose Bowl. But Rising got hurt early in the season — and despite winning their first four games, Utah would lost seven games in a row before taking their final contest and ending the year with a 5-7 record. Injuries and a lack of roster continuity was the most consistent element to their season. Four different quarterbacks would end up getting starts — and head coach Kyle Whittingham was using his fifth-string QB by the end of the season. Every unit on offense lacked cohesion — four different running backs got playing time, 11 different receivers were used, and eight different offensive linemen got playing time. During their seven-game losing streak, they failed to score more than 20 points four times — and they never scored more than 28 points during that stretch. Injuries also impacted the other side of the ball as defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley used 22 different players as starters at some point in the season. But once again, Whittingham and Scalley oversaw a great defense. They held their opponents to 20.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 25th in the nation. They ranked sixth in the FBS in opponent Success Rate Allowed — placing 13th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. There is a long list of reasons why Utah is a “buy low” candidate this season. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks them 128th in lineup stability and 121st in turnover luck last season. They had a 1-4 record in games disputed by one-scoring possession, and they suffered -3 net upset losses on the year. Five starters and 10 of the 22 players from the two deep on defense last season return — but in Whittingham and Scalley, I trust to get the defense playing well. Whittingham overhauled the offense by bringing in New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who oversaw a Lobos offense that ranked fourth in the nation in total defense. Beck is bringing his dual-threat quarterback, Devon Dampier, with him. The junior passed for 2678 yards with 12 touchdown passes and added 1187 non-sack rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns last season. Beck will install a new up-tempo RPO spread offense to best take advantage of Dampier’s skill set — although it remains a question how playing at the quick tempo on offense will jive with Whittingham’s defensive mindset that emphasizes winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. Plenty of transfers entered the program at the skill positions in the offseason — and the Utes do bring back their top six offensive linemen from last year.
WASHINGTON: After losing to Michigan in the national championship game, the Huskies' 2024-25 season seemed destined to take a few steps back. They were hitting the reset button in about the most fundamental way that a football program can endure in this day and era. Only two starters were back from that 14-1 squad. No team lost more players to the NFL, including quarterback Michael Penix, wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillian, and four players on the defensive line. Many of the players who did not leave for the NFL instead entered the transfer portal when Kalen DeBoer accepted the head coach job offer at Alabama. The administration hired Jedd Fisch as their next head coach after his three-year stint at Arizona, where he saw a successful rebuild of that dormant program, but he was only able to begin assembling his staff and filling out the roster through the transfer portal in late January. And the deal was transitioning into its first year in the Big Ten. Given all that, getting to a bowl game was a nice accomplishment for this program, where they ended the year with a 6-7 record after a 35-34 loss against Louisville in the Sun Bowl. Washington settled for a 4-5 record in conference play but did outgain their conference opponents by +12 net Yards-Per-Game. Only four starters are back from that group, but Fisch remained aggressive in the transfer portal and is doing a good job of recruiting at the high school ranks. The keys to the offense will be handed to sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who was dynamite in the bowl game by completing 26 of 32 passes for 374 yards with four touchdown passes and another 48 yards on the ground with a fifth touchdown with his legs. On paper, the Huskies' defense did well by ranking 28th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 328.4 total Yards-Per-game, including just 166.5 passing YPG which was the second-best mark in the FBS. But Washington did surrender 188 rushing YPG in their final seven games, which helped their opponents score 32 Points-Per-Game, which was +8.6 PPG above their season average. Only five of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back — but Fisch has seven players with starting experience on the roster when including the players he brought in from the transfer portal. The team will have new offensive and defensive coordinators for the second straight year. Steve Belichick left the program to run his Dad’s defense at North Carolina. Similar circumstances took place on offense with Brennan Carroll leaving to work with his Dad as the offensive line coach with the Las Vegas Raiders. Quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Jimmie Dougherty was promoted to run the Huskies’ offense. Fisch tapped former Purdue head coach Ryan Walters as the DC after previous successful stints running the defenses for Illinois and Missouri.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA: Brent Brennan endured a far from ideal start in his first season as the head coach for the Wildcats. Jedd Fisch bolted to Washington a month after the season ended to take that head coaching job, and he took most of the coaching staff and several key players with him. Perhaps Arizona was destined to take a step back after their surprising 10-3 mark in 2024, but the late start Brennan had in assembling a coaching staff and dealing with a new roster added to the challenge for the former San Jose State head coach. The Wildcats fell to 4-8 last season in their first year in the Big 12. They got outgained by -104 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play. Nine starters are back from that group, including junior quarterback Noah Fifita. The third-year starter took a step back from his sensational freshman season, throwing 12 interceptions — and he will not have Tetairoa McMillan, who was the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft. After ranking 18th in the nation by scoring 34.6 Points-Per-Game two years ago, Arizona plummeted to 114th in the nation by scoring only 21.8 PPG. They had ranked 20th in total offense for two straight seasons before falling to 96th by averaging only 354.6 total YPG last year. Brennan turned to Marshall's offensive coordinator, Seth Doege, to take over the offense this year. The Mike Leach disciple has installed a new up-tempo Air Raid attack. The defense took a big step back as well by surrendering 413.0 total YPG, ranking 105th in the nation. Injuries hit the unit hard, most notably with three captains at all three levels of the unit limited to only 15 combined games. Against teams ranked outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 60 offenses, the Wildcats held those opponents to 15.5 PPG and just 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. But against teams in the top 60 in SP+ offense, they surrendered 39.9 PPG and 7.0 YPP. Linebackers coach and special teams coordinator, Danny Gonzalez, was promoted to be the new defensive coordinator in the offseason. The former New Mexico head coach and protégé of Rocky Long previously ran defenses at San Diego State and Arizona State. Brennan was very aggressive in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — but he is banking much of that success to come from standouts at the FCS level who can make the transition to Power Four conference competition.
AUBURN: For the second-straight season, head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. The defense was much improved under first-year defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Auburn held their opponents to 330.8 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 21.3 Points-Per-Game, ranking 31st and 28th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, the wide receiver and offensive line rooms appear stacked. The question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500.
BAYLOR: Ever since the Bears won the Big 12 Championship in 2021, my seasonal deep dives into this team included the speculation over whether that achievement was a fluke under head coach Dave Aranda. The next two seasons were both losing campaigns with Baylor posting a 9-16 record. Aranda went into the offseason for the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season. Baylor ended the year with an 8-5 record after a 44-31 loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. But as I seem to point out every year at this time: “Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears.” His defense hit rock bottom two years ago by ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. But the Baylor defense only took small steps forward by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. In terms of total yardage, only one of Aranda’s defenses has ranked inside the top 48 in the nation in his five years. While there may be a problem matching his sophisticated schemes with the talent on the roster, there are significant problems in both recruiting high-end talent and simple player development for those on the roster. Once again, Aranda was highly aggressive in the transfer portal, a tactic that has not really worked yet. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball — but he’s the one who hired the bums! The offense should once again be dynamic — but they lost three games last year despite scoring at least 28 points. In their Big 12 championship run in 2021, an opportunistic defense helped them rank tied for sixth in the country with a +12 net turnover margin — but they only ranked 31st in total defense by giving up 345.9 total YPG. Baylor will likely go only as far as their defense allows them.
CENTRAL FLORIDA: The Knights have just a 10-15 record the last two years — both losing seasons — which coincides with the uptick in competition by leaving the American Athletic Conference for the Big 12. Central Florida went 3-6 in their first season in the Big 12 despite outgaining those opponents by +21 net Yards-Per-Game. Last year, they dropped to 2-6 in conference action despite ranking second in the Big 12 by outgaining those opponents by +78 net YPG. What does it say that four-year head coach Gus Malzahn left the program in the offseason because he considered the offensive coordinator job at Florida State to be more enticing? The administration dipped back into their glory days and hired back Scott Frost as their next head coach after overseeing a 13-0 record and a self-proclaimed national championship in 2017-18. I am skeptical. Frost was a disaster in his four years as the head coach at his alma mater, Nebraska. The culture he cultivated was highly negative — and the Cornhuskers had a horrific record in games decided by one scoring possession, which I think became a result of his players expecting to find ways to lose. Fresh starts are good, but I am very worried about how a cocky head coach whose hubris was a problem at his alma mater rediscovers some healthy humility and perspective at the place where he was considered a hero? The circumstances seem ripe to enable Frost’s worst tendencies. The roster is almost brand new as well, with at least 67 new players on the team in the summer. Even for well-respected culture builders, this would be a tough challenge. Frost did it once here — but that was when they were playing the American Athletic Conference. The question remains whether Central Florida has the resources to compete with the best teams in the Big 12. Even with the influx of transfers, the offensive line, as well as the back seven on defense, are significant question marks.
COASTAL CAROLINA: The Chanticleers took a step back last season with a 6-7 record after losing to UTSA in the Myrtle Beach Bowl by a 44-15 score. Entering his third year as head coach, Tim Beck saw more than 40 players leave the program in the transfer portal. After bringing in at least 66 new players to the roster last season, he brought in at least 67 new players this year. It is tough to conduct business and develop team chemistry and cohesion in a turnstile so crowded. On the other hand, perhaps the turnover of so many players was necessary. Coastal Carolina surrendered 413.8 total Yards-Per-Game last season, which resulted in 31.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 106th in the nation in both categories. Of the 24 players who got at least one start on defense last year, only six return. At least 19 new players are on the defensive roster, ranging from Power Four programs to the Group of Five to the FCS. Beck did add five players who registered at least five tackles for loss for their team last season. The offense lost quarterbacks Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim to the transfer portal, but redshirt sophomore Ted Hudson returns after starting in the bowl game. Beck brought in junior M.J. Morris from Maryland and Emmett Brown from San Jose State to compete for the starting quarterback job. He brought in new talent to compete at running back and wide receiver as well. The offensive line returns six players with starting experience before Beck added four transfers and a junior college transfer. With so much turnover, it will be difficult to initially evaluate this squad. But after getting outgained in the Sun Belt Conference by -56 net YPG, the Chanticleers are trending in the wrong direction.
INDIANA: The Hoosiers became Exhibit A last season for how quickly a serious NIL program can transform a football team using the transfer portal. First-year head coach Curt Cignetti transformed Indiana into James Madison West with 13 players joining him from the previous season’s Dukes team. In all, Cignetti brought in 30 transfers, which took advantage of a softer schedule to make the college football playoff, where their 11-2 season ended in a 27-17 loss at Notre Dame in the first round. The Hoosiers had only won nine combined games in the three previous years. Cignetti only has eight starters back from that group, but he once again was aggressive in the transfer portal to fill holes on both sides of the ball. Kurtis Rourke moved on to the NFL, but Cignetti brought in Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza to replace him. The junior completed 68.7% of his passes for 3004 passing yards despite playing behind a porous offensive line. Indiana ranked second in the nation last year by scoring 41.3 Points-Per-Game. Their defense ranked sixth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 15.6 PPG — and Cignetti returns three players at all three levels of the unit that were both All-Americans and first-team Big Ten selections: defensive end Mikhail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds. All three of those leaders played for Cignetti at James Madison — and transfers joined all three of their position rooms. Indiana enjoyed a +15 net turnover margin last season, which ranked fourth best in the nation. Replicating that accomplishment may be difficult — but this roster may be better than the one that lost to the Fighting Irish in the playoffs.
KENTUCKY: After six straight losing seasons, head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to eight-straight bowl games — but that streak got snapped last year in their 4-8 season. Kentucky lost their final five games against FBS opponents by at least 20 points in each contest. They went 1-7 against SEC opponents and got outgained by -100 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have a 7-18 record against the SEC since 2021. The team is losing its identity of toughness under Stoops, with both sides of the line of scrimmage too often getting outmuscled. Stoops has become more reliant on the transfer portal — but last year’s incomers mostly failed. He bought at least 26 transfers this year — but he may be losing in the portal wars after losing wide receivers, Dane Keys and Barrion Brown, along with most guard and former 5-star recruit, Keeshawn Silver, to other FBS programs. Stoops did bring in six players in the portal to bolster the offensive line, but three were from Group of Five programs, a concern given their SEC schedule. The Wildcats averaged only 330.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 20.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 114th and 119th in the nation. Stoops' big swing was to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Zach Caldada to lead the offense. He threw for 6342 passing yards in the last two seasons at Incarnate Word — but he failed to succeed in this conference before that at Texas A&M and then Auburn. The defense lost six players to the NFL, including two who got drafted in the first four rounds. Seven of the nine players in the front six who logged-in at least 200 snaps are gone. Stoops did bring in defensive end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, who might have been the best player in the FCS after registering 18.5 tackles for loss at South Dakota last season. But for every step forward Stoops takes with the quality of the roster, attrition to the NFL or poaching from other Power Four programs seems to result in two steps back.
MARYLAND: After two straight 8-5 campaigns and three straight bowl victories, the Terrapins took a step back last year in a 4-8 season that ended with five straight losses. Head coach Mike Locksley admitted he lost the locker room due to NIL issues. It is a delicate balance between using limited NIL funds to entice younger talented players into the program at the expense of the more established players — and Locksley conceded that his attempt to thread that needle did not work out. Maryland was one of the hardest hit Power Four conference programs in the transfer portal — including seeing linebackers Caleb Wheatland and Kellan Wyatt leave the program after spring practice. Top-end starters were raided by other Power Four programs, and even backups were lost to Group of Five programs. Locksley has compared his situation at Maryland to that of Macy’s department stores, which have to compete against both the high-end Saks Fifth Avenue college football teams attempting to poach his top talent as well as the discount store programs offering more playing time to his younger backups. Locksley continues to recruit very well — and he cleaned house with his assistant coaches by bringing in two NFL veterans, Pep Hamilton and Ted Monachino, as his new offensive and defensive coordinators. Just four starters are back from last season — and Locksley did add several likely starters in the transfer portal. The Terrapins have talent — but the starters will be young given the losses in the transfer portal. The team also lost six players to the NFL in the offseason, which Locksley is using to demonstrate that his program is successful in getting players to the next level.
MICHIGAN: In my deep dive on the Wolverines last preseason, I concluded by observing: “Michigan’s defense will remain very good — and the offense has talent. How far this team will go depends on how good of play they will get at quarterback.” Well, the quarterback play was abysmal. Alex Orgi was unable to move the ball with his arm. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell was unable to design a wildcat styled attack where Orgi was mostly to ask to run the football. Perhaps Orgi was incapable of executing schemes more sophisticated than “run right” or “run left.” It begs the question as to how could first-year head coach Sherrone Moore allow the quarterback room to be so substandard. In hindsight, Plan A may have been to rely on seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle in a scheme similar to what they operated with J.J. McCarthy when winning the national championship the prior year. The former Indiana transfer was a blue-chip recruit for Utah — but injuries plagued him throughout his career and kept him out of fall camp. He got time during the season and started against Illinois before suffering another injury, which prompted him to retire in late October. Ultimately, Davis Warren was named the starting quarterback out of camp and ended the year as the starter. The former walk-on was a nice story as a survivor of Leukemia after a promising beginning to his high school career — but he simply had not played much competitive football for several years before suddenly being the starter in the Big House playing Texas. Maybe Moore and his coaching staff simply became overconfident that they could make anybody succeed at QB under their tutelage. Lesson learned as Moore attacked the transfer portal with the diligence of never letting that quarterback nightmare happen again. He brought in senior Mikey Keene from Fresno State, who has been an effective gunslinger in the past — and after Keene missed spring practice due to an injury, Moore then tapped former East Carolina starter Jake Garcia to come in as a graduate transfer. Orji transferred to UNLV, but Warren is still around, as is sophomore Jordyn Davis, who was a four-star recruit who was considered too small to be considered as a viable option last year. But the future of the offense — sooner or later — will be in the hands of freshman Bryce Underwood, who was widely considered the top high school recruit in the country. Originally an LSU recruit despite playing high school in Michigan, the Wolverines flipped him after maintaining a full-court press in recruiting him, with the deal finally being sealed when billionaire Oracle owner Larry Ellison agreed to write a check for $10-12 million as a favor to his Michigan alum wife. It is difficult to judge the rest of the offense last season since the passing attack was so dismal. Moore added running back Justice Haynes from Alabama and All-Big Ten wide receiver Donovan McCulley from Indiana to infuse more talent at the skill positions. Moore also moved on from Cameron and brought in North Carolina offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey to run the offense. The former Troy head coach is a well-respected offensive mind who should help in the passing game without abandoning the Wolverines’ desire to deploy smash mouth football when they desire it. Yet despite ranking 131st in the nation by averaging only 129.1 passing Yards-Per-Game, Michigan still ended the season by upsetting Ohio State and Alabama to finish a respectable 8-5. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had some early hiccups moving from the NFL to the college ranks — but his defense surrendered only two touchdowns in their final 14 quarters despite the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide representing over half that span. The Wolverines replace four players drafted into the NFL (including defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, who were both selected in the first 13 picks) — but all four of those players opted out of their bowl game victory against Alabama. Michigan should once again boast one of the best defenses in the country, as that side of the ball has grown accustomed to reloading rather than rebuilding. The quarterback play will be better — but as I concluded last year, how quickly that position stabilizes will determine how far this team can go this season.
MISSISSIPPI STATE: I was worried that the Bulldogs were destined to take another step back last season, as I wrote: “The Bulldogs' lack of an established NIL program has them falling behind their in-state rivals, Ole Miss, in recruiting, and they may have to take another step back before they can begin rebuilding this program in earnest.” Sure enough, they bottomed out with a 2-10 record with their only victories being against UMass and Eastern Kentucky. As I also wrote last year: Mississippi State has “found success in the brutal SEC when they have been able to match great coaching with unique schemes that can catch the big dogs off guard in the conference grind. The sudden death of third-year head coach Mike Leach, who checked those boxes, was devastating to this program.” Where does that now leave second-year head coach Jeff Lebby? Well, for starters, desperate to improve a defense that surrendered 456.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game, ranking 125th and 117th in the nation. On the other side of the ball, former Baylor transfer Blake Shapen missed the last eight games of the season due to a shoulder injury — but he did rank fourth in Pro Football Focus’ Passer Grade Rankings at that point, so there is reason for optimism that the offense can improve with him back under center. Lebby hit the transfer portal hard with the most newcomers in the SEC — and he also brought in over ten junior college transfers. But the defensive line was the worst in the SEC, and the offensive line was the weak link last season. Lebby worked very hard to improve the size of both sides of the line of scrimmage — but establishing and maintaining depth at the offensive and defensive lines is the biggest challenge for programs like this, especially when they are in decline.
MISSOURI STATE: The Bears make the jump from the FCS to Conference USA this season, having not defeated a FBS opponent since 1990. But don’t expect this team to be intimidated by the jump in competition after playing in the Missouri Valley Conference against perennial FBS powers, North Dakota State and South Dakota State, who compare favorably to the best teams in Conference USA. Third-year head coach Ryan Beard returns 10 starters from last year’s 8-4 squad that finished 6-2 in the Missouri Valley. Seventh-year senior Jacob Clark returns at quarterback after completing 69.4% of his passes for 3604 passing yards last season, which could make this Missouri State team dangerous. The defense ranked only 83rd in the FCS by surrendering 391.7 Yards-Per-Game last season — and they lost their top two pass rushers, both starting linebackers, and their top three cornerbacks from that group either to graduation or the transfer portal. But Beard was intent on getting both sides of the line of scrimmage bigger in the offseason in preparation for the move to the FBS.
NEVADA: First-year head coach Jeff Choate got the most out of his talent last season. The Wolf Pack opened the season with a 3-4 mark, which included upset victories against Oregon State and Troy, along with a narrow 29-24 loss to a playoff-bound SMU. They also played playoff-bound Boise State tough in a 28-21 loss. But they lost their last six games of the season — and while going 2-6 in games decided by one possession is often a sign of some bad luck, too often this Nevada team lacked discipline and made mistakes late in the game that cost them dearly. Despite a winless record in their seven games in the Mountain West Conference, they only got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Choate has a good track record as the head of Montana State and then the defensive coordinator for Texas. But this is a very tough assignment. This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. With the 3-10 record last year, the Wolf Pack has endured three-straight ten-loss seasons — and they are just 7-30 during that span. It has been hard for Choate to keep up in the transfer portal — notably this offseason, he lost quarterback Brandon Lewis to Memphis and left tackle (and potential first-round pick) Isaiah World to Oregon. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to the Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Choate is working hard. He brought in seven players with FBS starting experience — but his pivot this offseason was to target more players from FCS programs that have intriguing upside with the jump in competition. Sixth-year season (and Brock’s younger brother) Chubba Purdy is expected to start under center. The defense lost 10 starters and six of their top seven tacklers. This unit needs to generate more big plays. They only registered 14 sacks and 17 takeaways — and the players responsible for 11.5 of those sacks and 12 of those turnovers are now off the roster. But after inheriting a team that got outscored by 16.1 net Points-Per-Game, Nevada only got outscored by -5.7 net PPG last season. Choate is probably going to push enough of the right buttons to get his group to overachieve once again.
NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats seemed destined to take a step back last season after David Braun pulled a near-miracle as the interim head coach, overseeing an 8-5 season. He inherited a team that had lost 17 of their last 18 games, which had then fired their head coach of 17 seasons, Pat Fitzgerald, for the hazing scandal that pervaded the squad. But that Northwestern team pulled off five upset victories that year and posted a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They completely flipped the script on turnovers, going from a -19 net turnover margin in 2022, which was the worst mark in the nation, to a +13 net turnover margin last season, ranking third in the FBS. A +32 turnaround in turnovers from one season to the next is unheard of. That helped the Wildcats overcome getting outgained by -36.9 net YPG. The turnaround was spurred by their defense that allowed 22.5 Points-Per-Game and ranked 35th in the nation by surrendering just 340.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Last year, the defense was not quite as good as they allowed 26.3 PPG and ranked 56th in the nation by giving up 361.8 total YPG. But Braun’s assignment in his third year as head coach is to get the offense going after they ranked 128th and 130th in the country by scoring just 17.8 PPG and generating only 284.4 total YPG. He made a nice splash in the transfer portal by bringing over graduate senior Preston Stone from SMU, who had a 13-3 record as a starter for the Mustangs. After a big 2023, Stone struggled early last season and eventually got benched for Kevin Jennings, who led SMU to the playoffs. But Stone still has a big arm, having thrown 35 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions in his career. With two quality transfers coming in on the offensive line, Northwestern has more depth on that unit than in recent years. The Wildcats took some hits in the transfer portal, as that area will continue to be a challenge given the tough admission standards for the university. But Braun rescued this program two years ago and has brought it back to respectability in a very difficult conference. If the offense can score at least another touchdown per game, then Northwestern will be dangerous.
NOTRE DAME: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience with a turn as a head coach in college — but Ash’s resume is not nearly as impressive as Golden’s in all those iterations. The last time Ash had his fingerprints on a top 10 NFL defense or a top 40 collegiate defense was 2015. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.”
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes pushed all their chips in to win the National Championship last season with four stars on defensive bypassing the NFL to return for a final season — and despite losses to Oregon and Michigan in the regular season, they peaked at the right time of the season by outscoring their opponents by a 36-19 margin in their four playoff games to accomplish their ultimate objective. Once again, the roster is loaded with talent — but there are far more questions than answers regarding how this year’s team will fare against elite competition. With only eight starters from last year’s team back, new leaders will have to emerge to help manage adversity. The defense lost nine players to the NFL. Free safety Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the country — but the defensive line is the biggest question on that side of the ball, with depth at defensive tackle being a real concern. The offense lost senior quarterback Will Howard as well as running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL. Second-year freshman quarterback Julian Sayin most certainly has higher upside than Howard, but he is wet under the years. Led by the phenomenal sophomore Jeremiah Smith, the wide receiver room is loaded, but how quickly Sayin can take advantage of this group remains a question. The offensive line lost two starters to the NFL after being the weak link of this unit against their top competition (ask Michigan). Henderson and Judkins' innate talent out of the backfield helped neutralize this weakness in the playoffs, but Ohio State is starting over with their backfield now. What helped the Buckeyes rebound from the late-season loss to the Wolverines was their veteran coaching staff, with Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator and Jim Knowles running the defense to support all the criticism Ryan Day was receiving. Now Kelly is the OC for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Knowles defected to run the Penn State defense. Day re-installed Brian Hartline as the offensive coordinator after being demoted back to just the tight ends coach last year. Hartline has been an assistant offensive coach here since 2017. I do like that Day is not going back to calling plays — outside of Andy Reid, all these offensive coaches are better served concentrating on running the entire team and avoiding the allure to also free-lance and call every offensive play. Deferring the play-calling to Kelly last year was prudent — and now giving those duties to Hartline is the best long-term move. But Hartline is a first-time play-caller. On the other side of the ball is now Matt Patricia. I don’t love what it says that Knowles did not want to stay with the program where he oversaw the best scoring defense and total defense in the nation. Patricia is undoubtedly a brilliant defensive mind. I even defended Bill Belichick’s decision to anoint him the offensive coordinator for New England by buying the argument that teachers teach. But Patricia has mostly been a complete failure when outside the purview of Belichick as his defensive coordinator. His time as the Detroit Lions’ head coach was a disaster, and after helping to orchestrate the ousting of defensive coordinator Sean Desai to take over the Philadelphia Eagles' defense two years ago, the result was the team hitting rock bottom in the playoffs against Tampa Bay. When the Eagles cut ties with Patricia last offseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl. I have serious reservations that Patricia can (a) nurture collegiate talent and (b) tailor his sophisticated schemes to the collegiate level. Day finally has a national title under his belt, but I am not sure he has the leadership skills to handle the challenges of two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Losing 15 players to the NFL is tough for any team to overcome. However, with the new expanded playoff system, Ohio State may be an intriguing team to reconsider once the postseason begins.
OLD DOMINION: Credit head coach Ricky Rahne for keeping this team competitive. After playing 11 games decided by one scoring possession two years ago, losing five of those games in a 6-7 season, the Monarchs lost six games by eight points or less in their 5-7 campaign last year. There is reason for optimism after the former Penn State offensive coordinator developed dual-threat Colton Joseph under center last year. The returning redshirt sophomore led the Sun Belt Conference in total offense last year. Both sides of the line of scrimmage improved last season, which suggests Rahne is successfully identifying talent in recruiting and the transfer portal after struggling in those areas early in his tenure. The offense registered +54.5 more Yards-Per-Game and +4.2 Points-Per-Game on offense last year. The defense has six starters back, but should be much improved if former All-American tackling machine Jason Henderson can return from the knee injury that kept him out for all but one game last season.
PENN STATE: The Nittany Lions are a trendy national champion pick in many circles as they resemble the profile of Michigan and Ohio State, who won the last two national titles by returning veteran squads loaded with talent that bypassed the NFL to come back to school because of unfinished business. Penn State might have the best backfield in the nation with senior quarterback Drew Allar, along with running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Four starters return on the offensive line. The defense has returning stars at all three levels — and head coach James Franklin pulled off a coup after defensive coordinator Tom Allen defected to Clemson by poaching Ohio State’s defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. But there are plenty of red flags. The defense lost four players to the NFL, including their outstanding pass rusher, Abdul Carter, who was the third pick in the NFL draft. Only eight of the 17 players who logged in 300 or more snaps last year are back. Depth concerns exist at defensive tackle and linebacker. That unit surrendered 45 points against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game after letting USC score 30 points against them earlier in the season — and Notre Dame scored 27 points in their three-point loss to the Fighting Irish in the college football semifinals. In their three losses last year, the Nittany Lions got only eight combined catches from their wide receivers. Franklin tried to finally address that deficiency in the transfer portal by bringing in Kyron Hudson from USC, Devonte Ross from Troy, and Trebor Pena from Syracuse — and those three wide receivers combined for 198 receptions for 2446 receiving yards and 23 touchdown catches. But Allar will not have tight end Tyler Warren, who left for the NFL after catching 104 balls last season for 1233 yards and eight touchdowns. Allar completed 73.7% of his passes last year — but that mark dropped to just 60% in the playoffs. He is being anointed by many observers as the best quarterback in the country. Did these folks watch the Notre Dame game? Penn State’s potential game-winning drive late in that game ended in an interception. Allar also struggled in a 20-13 loss against Ohio State. What was the Nittany Lions’ best victory last season? Boise State? SMU? Illinois? This remains a program that is winless against Michigan and the Buckeyes in their last seven contests against them in the last three seasons. They lost both their games to the Ducks and Fighting Irish last year. Penn State under Franklin’s leadership may simply be flat-track bullies. In the last three seasons, the Nittany Lions have a 34-2 straight-up record when favored — and they are 27-0 straight-up when favored by six or more points in those games. But in their six games as an underdog during that span, they have failed to pull off even one upset.
PURDUE: The Boilermakers hit rock bottom last season in head coach Ryan Walters’ second year with the program. They finished with a 1-11 record and lost all nine of their games in the Big Ten, where they got outscored by 30 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -192 Yards-Per-Game. The defense surrendered 44 PPG and 479 YPG against FBS opponents. Walters fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell before October and actually began calling the offense himself despite having never done that as a defensive coach (and Purdue scored 49 points in a one-point loss in double-overtime at Illinois in his debut, although they would later get shut out three times with him still calling the offensive plays). Needless to say, Walters was fired at the end of the season, and 29 players left the program in the transfer portal. The Boilermakers turned to UNLV head coach Barry Odom to attempt to pull off a similar miracle he did with the Rebels the last two seasons. He inherited a lost UNLV program that had enjoyed just one winning season in 22 years, but he immediately turned them around using the transfer portal and posted a 20-8 record in his two years. It is almost a complete roster overhaul with more than 50 players both leaving and entering the program. Odom brought in 29 new players for spring practice — and then 28 players left after that session ended, with at least 28 new players being added after that. The defense was completely reset again after spring practice — so the real work for that unit only began in fall practice. Odom has earned the benefit of the doubt and certainly knows what he is looking for — but this is a very tough assignment that will take time to fix.
SOUTH CAROLINA: After their first losing season in the three seasons under head coach Shane Beamer, the Gamecocks broke out with a 9-4 campaign that included winning their final six regular season contests, headlined by four victories against ranked opponents. With a 9-3 record, South Carolina had a legitimate case that they should have played the college football playoffs. Blown fourth quarter leads in losses against Alabama and LSU cost them the chance to play for the national championship. The setback against the Tigers was particularly frustrating since they had a 17-point lead at one point and lost their redshirt freshman phenom at quarterback, LaNorris Sellers, to injury in the second half of the game. The offense lost seven starters, but Sellers is back for likely his last year in college before going to the pros. With his cannon of an arm, a 6’3 and 240-lb frame, and dual-threat rushing skills, he is the potential number one pick in April’s draft. On the other hand, the 20-year-old needs to demonstrate that his inconsistencies were primarily due to his inexperience. He committed too many turnovers early in the season. He took too many sacks. He only ranked 42nd in the nation in Total QBR. But he completed 65.6% of his passes, passed for 2534 yards, rushed for another 674 yards, and accounted for 25 total touchdowns. The defense was outstanding last season by holding their opponents to 316.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 18.1 Points-Per-Game, ranking 16th and 12th in the nation. But that unit only returns four starters with eight players now gone to the NFL, including three from the defensive line that got drafted in the first four rounds of the draft. Beamer saw five of his players drafted into the NFL and another nine players signed as undrafted free agents. He played the transfer portal well last year to improve the talent base on the roster — but he had to do that again last offseason. The defense is likely to take a step back, and their outstanding special teams unit is replacing their key contributors. But if Sellers takes the next step in his development, the Gamecocks will be very dangerous.
TCU: The Horned Frogs started the season 3-3 last year — but they won six of their final seven games, culminating in a dominant 34-3 victory against UL-Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl. The defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos continued to improve. In their last seven games, they held their opponents to 19 Points-Per-Game with four of those opponents failing to score more than 13 points. Six starters and 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return from that side of the ball. The offense has four starters back, headlined by quarterback Josh Hoover. The junior passed for 3949 yards with 27 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while completing 66.5% of his passes. Hoover will not have a trio of NFL-bound wide receivers after Jack Bech, Savion Williams, and J.P. Richardson moved on to the next level — they combined for 179 receptions, 2378 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns. Fourth-year head coach Sonny Dykes is recruiting well, three years removed from reaching the national championship game in his first year with the program. His faith in the roster he has constructed compelled him to only bring in ten players from the transfer portal, but two of those players were added to fortify the wide receiver room for Hoover.
TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era, when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16, is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 13-42 in the last five seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure — but he got trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players that got developed, then left the program for greener pastures. After three straight 3-9 seasons, the Temple administration moved on from Drayton. They only gained 308.8 total Yards-Per-Game on offense, which resulted in 19.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 125th and 121st in the nation. They also gave up 417.8 total YPG, which resulted in 35.4 PPG, ranking 112th and 123rd in the FBS. There was a notion that the culture was beginning to turn the corner in his tenure, but the Owls also suffered a -41 net turnover margin in his three seasons with opposing coaching anonymously claiming that the team could be compelled to quit if they fell behind on the scoreboard. Temple tapped 65-year-old K.C. Keeler as their next head coach. He won FCS titles at both Delaware and Sam Houston, where he posted a 271-112-1 record and shepherded their transition to the FBS two years ago. His Bearkats posted a 10-3 record last year in their second season at the FBS level. Keeler has a proven track record as a culture builder, which is what is needed at this program — but the challenge is massive. Only seven starters return with Keeler working the transfer portal on both sides of the ball to fill out the roster. The defense should improve under defensive coordinator Brian L. Smith, who is familiar with Conference USA competition as the defensive coordinator at Rice for the last seven seasons. The defensive front and secondary could be respectable given the additions in the portal.
TENNESSEE: The Volunteers come off their first appearance in the College Football Playoff, albeit in a 42-17 loss at Ohio State. And then in NIL drama, they lost their former five-star sophomore quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, in the transfer portal after UCLA was willing to offer him more money. I don’t know how devastating this loss was to the program. As a freshman, Iamaleava was up and down. On the other hand, the ceiling regarding his talent seemed to be high — and starting as a redshirt freshman last year provided him valuable experience. Head coach Josh Heupel essentially traded quarterbacks with the Bruins, with senior Joey Aguilar re-transferring from UCLA to Tennessee after the Iamaleava move. Aguilar was a two-year starter at Appalachian State, where he threw for 6770 yards and 56 touchdowns the last two seasons. He is a better scrambler than Iamaleava. However, his 24 interceptions over the last two seasons, including 14 picks last year, are issues. Only three starters are back on offense, with the four starters lost on the offensive line, running back and SEC Offensive Player of the Year, Dylan Sampson, getting drafted into the NFL, and the wide receiver room filled with freshmen and sophomores. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks oversaw an outstanding unit that held their opponents to 293.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game for those foes, ranking sixth and seventh in the nation. The Volunteers lost defensive end James Pearce Jr. to the first round of the NFL draft along with three of their top four defensive tackles, but they do return eight starters and 12 of the 25 players who logged-in at least 150 snaps last season. Banks is doing a great job as his defenses have improved each season. They have an elite cornerback duo in Jermod McCoy, a second-team All-American, and Rickey Gibson III. Sophomore Boo Carter, who plays the star linebacker/safety hybrid position, is a rising superstar who may also get snaps on offense. The offense has declined since 2022, when the Volunteers led the nation in both scoring and total offense. That might be because defenses are giving Heupel’s offenses the Patrick Mahomes treatment of two high safeties to take away the big play. On the other hand, perhaps the explanation is that Heupel has not had as good a quarterback under center than Hendon Hooker in his senior season (Joe Milton is a tease before Jim Harbaugh, the New England Patriots last year, and even Heupel when he benched him for Hoooker back inn 2021 all learn to move on from, making Milton perfect for the Dallas Cowboys now; Iamaleava was just a redshirt freshman last year, after showing more in the previous bowl game than Milton did all season). Heupel clearly deserves credit for one thing: in leading Tennessee to top ten seasons in his first four years, his 2022 team was defined by that explosive offense before last year’s team was defense-first. The ability to win with different identities of his team is a strong endorsement for Heupel, moving forward.
TEXAS: The Longhorns are many pundits' pick to win the national championship after getting so close the last two seasons in losses in the College Football Playoff semifinals to Washington two years ago and then in a 28-14 loss to Ohio State in a contest that was much closer than the final score. Fifth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian brought in the top high school class in the nation in 2025. Between his recruiting, his winning the transfer window by targeting specific talent to fill holes while retaining the vast majority of his roster, and the university’s strong commitment to its NIL program, Texas may be leading the way in how to thrive in the new competitive environment. And now they begin the Arch Manning era. Manning has dual-threat skills with mobility that is reminiscent of his grandfather, Archie, who had a long NFL career as the quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. His accuracy on deep balls brings a new dynamic to the offense that was not available the last two seasons with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. It may be very possible that Manning under center unlocks new levels of Sarkisian’s offensive genius that were held back the last two seasons. But that’s kinda where the rub starts for me. If all that is true, then why didn’t Manning win the job last year? Or more specifically, why did Sarkisian never pull the Nick Saban move as he did when he was the offensive coordinator for Alabama and turn to Manning in the second half of a big game like Saban did when he benched Jalen Hurts for Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of their national championship comeback victory against Georgia? Is the cart leading the horse when it comes to the monumental hype regarding this next generation of a Manning at quarterback? He got fooled at times when he took the field last year against Georgia, Florida, and even UL-Monroe. The pressure he is going to be dealing with regarding the microscope he will be under will be tremendous. Maybe Sark knows something we do not yet appreciate — and that is why he stuck with Ewers. One could say he wanted to stay loyal to Ewers — but I simply buy that at all from the guy who declared his team’s 2024-25 season mantra to be “obsessed”. That’s kinda creepy. Which brings up this topic: what was Texas’ best win last season? Clemson? Arizona State? Michigan? Oklahoma? Is it telling that the Longhorns lost both their games against Alabama before losing to the Buckeyes? Sarkisian does have a reputation for not being able to win big games. Is the playoff expansion now hiding what might be a serious criticism? In hindsight, traveling to Ann Arbor to beat a Michigan team without a quarterback who could complete a forward pass in September was not nearly as big a statement as it seemed at the time. Congrats on beating the best team in the ACC. And the Sun Devils. And the flip side of bringing in so much great talent is the challenge that Alabama and Georgia have encountered for years: the expectation of simply reloading, without the room for some rebuilding. Texas had 14 players invited to the NFL scouting combine — and 12 of those players were drafted. Those 14 players drafted into the NFL broke their previous record of 11 players drafted into the NFL just the year before. The defense is getting decimated. After losing defensive tackles to the first two rounds of the NFL draft last year, they lost five defensive players in the first four rounds of the NFL draft last April. Just at defensive tackle, they lost eight players from last year, including five of the top six on their depth chart, with two of them being drafted early into the NFL. Are we sure that this program is now at the confident “next!” stage of developing NFL talent? Sarkisian did identify this area of need by bringing in five transfers with starting experience for the defensive line room. But perhaps the biggest question mark is the line on the other side of the ball after losing four starters on the offensive line from last year. This will be a young group. Perhaps having established chemistry and synergy with Manning, taking the second team reps with them will pay dividends. But in their three losses last season, the Longhorns’ running backs averaged only 1.3 Yards-Per-Carry without a touchdown as they lost the battle at the line of scrimmage to Georgia (twice) and Ohio State. Maybe the Arch Manning era is the final piece of the puzzle for this Texas program (and Sark). But if the same nagging problems continue, the seed of the problems was evident.
UCLA: In the first season in the Big Ten, rookie head coach DeShaun Foster oversaw a 5-7 campaign where his team won four of their last six games. After the offense only generated 328.8 total YPG and 18.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 118th and 126th in the nation, he let go of offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy and scored a bit of a coup by bringing in Indiana offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri. And then after an NIL dispute with the University of Tennessee, Foster landed redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal to potentially give them a potent dual-threat at quarterback after spring practice. Six starters return on offense to complement Iamaleava and Sunseri. On the other side of the ball, only two of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back. Foster did bring in 10 transfers on defense.
USC: It is hard not to have Lincoln Riley fatigue. The “quarterback whisperer” has overseen a 15-13 record in his last 28 games at USC. It seems like he threw last year’s starting quarterback, Miller Moss, under the bus late in the year by benching him for former UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. The move fits into an evolving narrative that, with Riley, it’s always someone else’s fault, whether it be Moss, the lack of an NIL commitment at USC, or outdated facilities at USC. No one made you leave Oklahoma to take the job! At this point, the past failings of Riley’s teams are evident. His defenses are afterthoughts. He takes the building of the offensive line for granted. But simply accepting these narratives might be a mistake for bettors this season. The Trojans lost five of their six games by just 19 combined points. USC loyalists can point to five defining plays that keep their team from an 11-1 record. Of course, “what if” is often the mantra of losers — and perhaps finding ways to lose close games should be an indictment of Riley’s culture and game management. Or, it might mean that the Trojans are closer to college football playoff relevance than their previous 28 games suggest. Credit Riley for increased attention to developing size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. He resisted the allure of the quick fix sugar high of the transfer portal by bringing in only 16 new players, with less than half being seniors. Using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics, the defense improved from 105th to 45th last year under first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. A monster 2026 freshman recruiting class looms. Playing in the Big Ten has exposed this program a bit, which suffered unexpected losses against Maryland and Minnesota, who were more than happy to register signature wins against this supposed blue blood program. But if Riley is patiently remodeling his program to mimic that of Ohio State, Michigan, and Ohio State, the results should eventually arrive for this West Coast power.
UTAH: Expectations were very high for the Utes in their first season in the Big 12 — but much of the optimism rested on getting back quarterback Cameron Rising for his seventh and final season coming off an ACL tear in the 2024 Rose Bowl. But Rising got hurt early in the season — and despite winning their first four games, Utah would lost seven games in a row before taking their final contest and ending the year with a 5-7 record. Injuries and a lack of roster continuity was the most consistent element to their season. Four different quarterbacks would end up getting starts — and head coach Kyle Whittingham was using his fifth-string QB by the end of the season. Every unit on offense lacked cohesion — four different running backs got playing time, 11 different receivers were used, and eight different offensive linemen got playing time. During their seven-game losing streak, they failed to score more than 20 points four times — and they never scored more than 28 points during that stretch. Injuries also impacted the other side of the ball as defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley used 22 different players as starters at some point in the season. But once again, Whittingham and Scalley oversaw a great defense. They held their opponents to 20.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 25th in the nation. They ranked sixth in the FBS in opponent Success Rate Allowed — placing 13th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. There is a long list of reasons why Utah is a “buy low” candidate this season. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks them 128th in lineup stability and 121st in turnover luck last season. They had a 1-4 record in games disputed by one-scoring possession, and they suffered -3 net upset losses on the year. Five starters and 10 of the 22 players from the two deep on defense last season return — but in Whittingham and Scalley, I trust to get the defense playing well. Whittingham overhauled the offense by bringing in New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who oversaw a Lobos offense that ranked fourth in the nation in total defense. Beck is bringing his dual-threat quarterback, Devon Dampier, with him. The junior passed for 2678 yards with 12 touchdown passes and added 1187 non-sack rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns last season. Beck will install a new up-tempo RPO spread offense to best take advantage of Dampier’s skill set — although it remains a question how playing at the quick tempo on offense will jive with Whittingham’s defensive mindset that emphasizes winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. Plenty of transfers entered the program at the skill positions in the offseason — and the Utes do bring back their top six offensive linemen from last year.
WASHINGTON: After losing to Michigan in the national championship game, the Huskies' 2024-25 season seemed destined to take a few steps back. They were hitting the reset button in about the most fundamental way that a football program can endure in this day and era. Only two starters were back from that 14-1 squad. No team lost more players to the NFL, including quarterback Michael Penix, wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillian, and four players on the defensive line. Many of the players who did not leave for the NFL instead entered the transfer portal when Kalen DeBoer accepted the head coach job offer at Alabama. The administration hired Jedd Fisch as their next head coach after his three-year stint at Arizona, where he saw a successful rebuild of that dormant program, but he was only able to begin assembling his staff and filling out the roster through the transfer portal in late January. And the deal was transitioning into its first year in the Big Ten. Given all that, getting to a bowl game was a nice accomplishment for this program, where they ended the year with a 6-7 record after a 35-34 loss against Louisville in the Sun Bowl. Washington settled for a 4-5 record in conference play but did outgain their conference opponents by +12 net Yards-Per-Game. Only four starters are back from that group, but Fisch remained aggressive in the transfer portal and is doing a good job of recruiting at the high school ranks. The keys to the offense will be handed to sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who was dynamite in the bowl game by completing 26 of 32 passes for 374 yards with four touchdown passes and another 48 yards on the ground with a fifth touchdown with his legs. On paper, the Huskies' defense did well by ranking 28th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 328.4 total Yards-Per-game, including just 166.5 passing YPG which was the second-best mark in the FBS. But Washington did surrender 188 rushing YPG in their final seven games, which helped their opponents score 32 Points-Per-Game, which was +8.6 PPG above their season average. Only five of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back — but Fisch has seven players with starting experience on the roster when including the players he brought in from the transfer portal. The team will have new offensive and defensive coordinators for the second straight year. Steve Belichick left the program to run his Dad’s defense at North Carolina. Similar circumstances took place on offense with Brennan Carroll leaving to work with his Dad as the offensive line coach with the Las Vegas Raiders. Quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Jimmie Dougherty was promoted to run the Huskies’ offense. Fisch tapped former Purdue head coach Ryan Walters as the DC after previous successful stints running the defenses for Illinois and Missouri.
Best of luck — Frank.
