by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: Head coach Mike MacIntyre is probably on the hot seat after overseeing consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years as the Golden Panthers head coach. In his defense, he did inherit a team that had lost 18 of 19 games before he was hired. MacIntyre has a proven track record in turning losing programs around. He got Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship Game with ten victories in his fourth season as the Buffaloes head coach. He led San Jose State to an 11-2 record in his third season with the Spartans. FIU has 14 starters back from last year’s squad — and they are getting better and deeper on the offensive and defensive lines. But after -3 net close victories in games decided by one scoring possession last year, they have a 6-2 record in games decided by eight points or less in the MacIntyre era — so they may be worse than their two-four win seasons suggests. They got outgained by -144 yards against Conference USA opponents last season. They are also losing in the transfer portal, with players like wide receiver Keith Mitchell getting poached by Notre Dame after generating more than 1100 receiving yards last year. They have an intriguing talent at quarterback in sophomore Keyone Jenkins. The former Auburn commit threw for more than 2400 yards last year and added 324 non-sack rushing yards.
GEORGIA STATE: The Panthers started strong last season by winning six of their first seven games. But they then lost their final five regular season games before rallying in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by beating Utah State by a 45-22 score to cement a winning season. But the program got rocked when Shawn Elliott, after seven years as their head coach, abruptly resigned two days into spring practice to take the linebacker coaching job at South Carolina. He claimed he made the move for family reasons (his daughter was entering her senior year in high school in the fall) after living apart after taking the Georgia State job. The administration made a fine hire in bringing Georgia associate head coach (and running backs coach) Dell McGee, who had previously coached high school football in the state. The hope is that his connections to the high school programs will help in recruiting. But the roster was ravaged in the transfer portal. Gone are running back Marcus Russell to Missouri (1350 rushing yards last year), wide receiver Robert Lewis to Auburn (70 catches for 877 receiving yards last year), and defensive end Javon Denis (their sack leader last year). More than 30 players left the program, although McGee was able to use their early February spring practice to adjust and bring in over 30 players onto his team. Georgia State has to find a new quarterback after senior Darren Grainger exhausted his eligibility. McGee brought in four transfers to compete for the job. The bigger concern may be on defense after the Panthers ranked 113th in the nation by surrendering 425.3 total Yards-Per-Game. McGee may end up being a great fit for this program — but it is difficult to have high expectations this season, given how spring practice got disrupted.
HOUSTON: After suffering a 4-8 campaign in their opening season in the Big 12, the administration moved on from head coach Dana Holgorsen after five seasons. The Cougars looked outmatched playing in the Power Four conference. They only won two games against Big 12 opponents — and six of their seven losses were by double-digits. Overall, they got outscored by 14 Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -113 net Yards-Per-Game against their new conference rivals. In comes 64-year-old Willie Fritz, who has been a winner as a head coach in all his stops. His Tulane team has won 23 of their last 27 games. His run-focused approach will improve an offense that ranked 102nd in the nation by generating only 118.7 rushing YPG. The passing game lost wide receivers Matthew Golden and Sam Brown in the transfer portal — they combined for 100 catches, 1219 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns last year. The defense will be a work in progress after Houston ranked 112th in the FBS by surrendering 423.9 total YPG. That unit returns only two of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Fritz brought in 17 transfers and two junior college players to rebuild that unit.
IOWA: Head coach Kirk Ferentz did it again by reaching the Big Ten championship game despite generating only 234.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 15.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 130th and 129th in the nation. But after getting demolished by a combined 61-0 score against the Wolverines and then Tennessee in a 35-0 loss in the Citrus Bowl, questions must be asked. Are the Hawkeyes simply the beneficiaries of getting to play in the inferior Big Ten West Division that does not feature Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State? With the expansion of the conference to include the new members from the previous Pac-12, the divisions are gone. Reaching the Big Ten championship game requires having one of the top two conference records. As I wrote in my deep dive last year on this team, I commented: “ Can the Hawkeyes develop an even mid-level offensive attack? They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator, with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG.” With the Hawkeyes falling woefully short of that mark, nepotism suffered the occasional loss with the elder Ferentz forced to let his son go. The new offensive coordinator is former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester, who ran that program for six years after being a quarterback and then a QB coach in college. Frankly, the problem was bigger than simply nepotism. Former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara has limited physical skills and lacks a strong arm to open up a vertical passing game. The wide receiver room is sparse with talent, since what gifted wideout takes their talents here? But what is particularly telling is the slow decline of the quality of the offensive line. Iowa has usually has a quality rushing attack in Ferentz's previous 25 seasons running the program because he would recruit quality talent. Perhaps it is the changing climate of college football, but Ferentz is no longer attracting that level of talent to make Iowa City their home. The defense remains elite. They limited their opponents to just 282.5 total YPG, which resulted in 14.8 PPG, ranking seventh and fourth best in the nation. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker won the Broyles Award for the best assistant coach in the nation. After finishing in the top three in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings, Parker may very well be the best defensive coordinator in the FBS. Eight starters are back from that group — and at least eight seniors are expected to be starters this season. Furthermore, 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 400 snaps are back. Once again, the Hawkeyes will possess an outstanding defense. But can Lester scheme his way to this team scoring at least a touchdown more per game? And does he have the talent on the roster to accomplish that task?
JAMES MADISON: The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But this is a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers are back and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. Bob Chesney is the new head coach after five seasons at Holy Cross.
KENNESAW STATE: After nine seasons as a football program at the FS level including four playoff appearances, the Owls make the jump to the FBS in Conference USA this season. They are more likely to struggle in the transition as Sam Houston did last season rather than find immediate success as Jacksonville State did. Brian Bohannon is their only head coach in program history and he was crafty about sandbagging some of his best players to only play four games last year to preserve another year of eligibility. So, with 16 starters back from last year’s team, this group is better than their 3-6 record. Kennesaw State will deploy a pistol offense that operates zone-read RPOs. Sophomore quarterback Davis Bryson was one of the players who was kept out of five games to preserve another season of eligibility. He will run the ball — but he only completed two passes last season which makes the entire passing game for this offense into question. Since 2015, this program has averaged 297.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game — so running the ball will likely remain their priority when they are on offense. The Owls' defense ranked ninth in the FCS by only allowing 17.9 Points-Per-Game — but they did not register a win against an FBS opponent. Depth on that side of the ball will be a challenge as they make the jump up to the FBS and Conference USA.
LIBERTY: The Flames dominated their Conference USA competition in their debut in that conference. They were 13-0 before getting exposed against Oregon in their 45-6 loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Second-year head coach Jamey Chadwell has 12 starters back from that team led by fifth-year quarterback Kaiden Salter. The former Tennessee recruit was a great fit in Chadwell’s high-octane spread triple-option attack. He is a legitimate NFL prospect given his dual-threat skills. He passed for 2876 yards and 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions last year — and he added another 1154 non-sack rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Liberty led the nation by generating 293.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The offensive line could be a concern with only two starters returning after that unit took a hit in the transfer portal. The defense is the bigger concern as Oregon demonstrated in the bowl game. The Flames must replace linebacker Tyren DuPree who was Conference USA’s Defensive Player of the Year. The defense also lost defensive backs Kobe Singleton and Preston Hodge in the transfer portal to Oregon State and Colorado. Chadwell was aggressive in the portal in adding talent on that side of the ball at all three levels including seven power conference transfers to add size to the defensive line. Led by Chadwell’s coaching acumen on offense and an NFL prospect at quarterback, the Flames will score plenty of points which will keep them competitive against conference opponents. Possibly qualifying for the College Football Playoff will depend on better play from their defense.
LOUISIANA TECH: The Bulldogs have endured three straight 3-9 seasons which likely places head coach Sonny Cumbie on the hot seat in the third year with the program. Only ten starters return this season with more quality players leaving the program from the transfer portal than Cumbie is bringing in. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinator oversaw a mediocre offense that ranked 76th and 66th in the nation by scoring 25.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 384.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Junior Jack Turner looks to be the starting quarterback this season after the perennially underachieving Hank Bachmeier transferred again (this time to Wake Forest). Turner played in eight games last season with four starts but completed only 56.8% of his passes for 1017 passing yards with five touchdown passes but five interceptions. The wide receiver room is unproven with no returning starters and seven transfers joining the team. But the defense is the bigger problem after that unit ranked 114th and 117th by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG. Just five players are back from that group. This is a program that does not have many reliable playmakers on either side of the football.
LOUISVILLE: The Cardinals were a success last year in the first season under head coach Jeff Brohm as they reached the ACC Championship Game and finished with a 10-4 record. However, they did lose their last three games including to Florida State in the ACC title game and then to USC in the Holiday Bowl by a 42-28 score. Brohm brought in 25 players from the transfer portal last season and he hit the transfer window hard again this year by adding 28 new players from other programs to complement 15 returning starters. Quarterback Jack Plummer has run out of eligibility after Brohm brought him in from California after originally recruiting him and coaching him for four years at Purdue. Brohm turned to Texas Tech this time around to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Tyler Shough who has a strong arm but has only played 22 games in the last four years due to injuries. The defense added 14 transfer players to the seven returning starters to bolster a group that ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 317.1 total Yards-Per-Game. Most of the incoming transfers are seniors which makes the long-term culture-building at Louisville an issue. Brohm is a great coach — but perpetually adding 25 or so new players with expectations to play immediately may be unsustainable.
MARSHALL: The Thundering Herd won their first four games before dropping seven of their next eight games, before beating UTSA in the Frisco Bowl by a 35-17 score. Four of their six victories were against teams that were bowl eligible. But the offense took another step back by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 102nd in the nation. Head coach Charlie Huff is on the hot seat in his fourth year with the program. He tapped Purdue’s tight end coach and former Texas Tech quarterback, Seth Doege, as offensive coordinator to install the Air Raid offense. Huff lost over 20 players in the transfer portal but brought in more than 20 new players. Marshall needs to improve on their -11 net turnover margin from last season.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE: After 18 seasons under Rick Stockstill, the Blue Raiders have a new head coach this season with former Vanderbilt skipper Derek Mason taking over this program. He inherits only seven starters back from a group that finished 4-8 last year. Junior Nicholas Vattiato returns after the dual-threat quarterback passed for 3092 yards and added another 397 yards on the ground. Experience returns at running back but this offense ranked just 84th in the nation Rush Success Rate last season. The offensive line lost four of their top five starters and Vattiato lost five of his top six targets from the passing game. The roster lost several starters from last season including two from the offensive line and another four starters on defense including three on the defensive line and a starting linebacker. Only three starters are back on that side of the ball. Mason has a good reputation as a defensive coach, but he has a significant rebuild on his hands after the Blue Raiders ranked 86th in the nation by surrendering 395.6 total Yards-Per-Game.
NEW MEXICO: After a 4-8 campaign, the Lobos moved on from head coach Danny Gonzalez after four seasons and turned to their former defensive coordinator, Bronco Mendenhall, who served here under Rocky Long from 1998-2002. After 17 years as the head coach at BYU and Virginia, Mendenhall returns to Albuquerque with 16 bowl games in his head coaching tenure. While New Mexico was just 2-6 in the Mountain West Conference, they outgained their opponents by +10 Yards-Per-Game. Eight starters are back — and the offense will be in the hands of sophomore quarterback Devon Dampier, who is a dual-threat quarterback who played in ten games last year. The offensive coordinator is Jason Beck, who was the offensive coordinator at Syracuse last year after serving as the quarterbacks coach at Virginia and BYU under Mendenhall. The defense has six starters back from a group that ranked 123rd in the nation by giving up 35.1 Points-Per-Game. Nick Howell comes in to run the defense after serving as the defensive coordinator at Vanderbilt for the last two seasons. He is a long-time acolyte under Mendenhall.
NEW MEXICO STATE: The Aggies come off a historic season for this program where they won ten games and played in the Conference USA Championship Game in its inaugural season with the conference. The team won 16 of their last 22 games under head coach Jerry Kill who consistently gets the most out of his talent. But his ongoing health issues along with some conflicts with his administration led to him leaving the program to take the job of chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor at Vanderbilt. Conference USA Player of the Year Diego Pavia joined Kill in the move to Nashville leaving this team with a massive hole at quarterback. Former UNLV head coach and the wide receivers coach the last two seasons in Las Cruces, Tony Sanchez, takes over as the head coach — and he brought in three transfers from FBS programs and another two junior college transfers to compete to be the new starting quarterback. New Mexico State may have become the poster child representing the downside of the transfer portal as their roster was absolutely gutted in the offseason after Kill announced his departure. Besides losing Pavia, the Aggies lost their top two running backs, their top wide receiver and tight end, two starting defensive linemen, and a linebacker in the portal window. Overall, the program lost their top three quarterbacks, their top two running backs, seven of their top eight receivers, their top six defensive linemen, and 11 of their top 13 defensive backs from last season. Sanchez hustled to bring in players — headlined by safety Nick Sessions from Oklahoma State, running back Seth McGowan from Oklahoma, running back Mike Washington from Buffalo, several defensive players from the junior college ranks, and all five of those quarterbacks — but those moves feel like one step forward after taking three steps back. And despite making the conference championship game, New Mexico State got outgained against fellow Conference USA opponents by -7 Yards-Per-Game. On the plus side, four starters return on the offensive line to help what could be a nice running back room. Sanchez needs a quarterback to emerge — and the defense to somehow find itself after replacing so many players. That is a lot to ask for a program that was still an Independent two seasons ago.
OKLAHOMA STATE: In my deep dive on this team last year, my biggest question was this: “Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull?” After starting splitting their first four games and getting up by South Alabama in their third, it certainly appeared to be the former. But credit goes to head coach Mike Gundy, who changed the identity of the team after that setback. He committed to sixth-year senior Alan Bowman at quarterback. They began leaning on their good offensive line and sophomore running back Ollie Gordon II. After only rushing the ball 19 times for 109 yards in the first three games, Gordon II exploded for 1732 rushing yards for the year and won the Doak Walker Award for the best running back in college football. He rushed for at least 118 yards in nine of their last 11 games. Oklahoma State reached the Big 12 championship game before losing to Texas by a 49-21 score. They finished the season 10-4 after beating Texas A&M, 31-23, in the Texas Bowl. But a look under the hood reveals some red flags that offer caution to getting too optimistic regarding what that team was last year. Despite a 7-2 record in the Big 12, those opponents outgained them by -17 Yards-Per-Game. Their bowl victory against the Aggies was against a heavily depleted roster. The Longhorns completed 76.6% of their passes for a whopping 464 passing yards in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys' defense ranked 122nd in the nation by surrendering 441.8 total YPG. Opponents going up-tempo too often exposed that unit. This season will be revealing since Gundy has 20 starters back. Ten starters are back on defense, along with 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Bowman is back for his seventh and final season to run the offense — and Gordon II bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season. The offensive line returns all five starters and eight overall players who have been full-time starters in the past. Six redshirt super seniors lead that group. The expectation is for this group to return to the Big 12 championship game. If they do, then the recent struggles of this program were likely just a temporary blip. But questions will be asked if this team takes a step back despite returning the third most production from a year ago.
OLD DOMINION: Head coach Ricky Rahne fielded a competitive team last year and got the Monarchs to their second bowl game in his tenure. Old Dominion raced out of the gate by scoring the first 28 points before blowing a 35-13 lead in a 38-35 loss in overtime to Western Kentucky in the Famous Toastery Bowl. They finished 6-7 on the year with 11 of those games decided by one scoring possession, including five of their losses. Eight starters return from that team, including junior quarterback Grant Wilson, who started in 11 of their games. But this is still an offense struggling to get going under Rahne's leadership despite his being the former offensive coordinator for Penn State. The program continues to get pummeled in the transfer portal. Running back Kadarious Calloway left for California — and then wide receiver Reymello Murphy bolted to Arizona after spring practice. The turnstile is really impacting the Monarchs on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Old Dominion surrendered 62 sacks, which were the most in the nation last year. The defense managed only 19 sacks. The secondary must replace its top five players from last year. But the defense does get back tackling machine Jason Henderson after being named a first-team All-American. The senior registered 170 tackles last year, including 19.5 tackles for loss.
OREGON: The Ducks' only two losses last season were to Washington and both were by only three points. Their average margin of victory in their 12 wins was 33 points. Ten starters are back from that 12-2 team — and third-year head coach Dan Lanning added another 31 players to the roster. Lanning is recruited very well and he has 21 freshmen on the team. He also continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 11 new players from other programs. This approach could be risky since the influx of new players who expect to play could disrupt the chemistry of the program. Former Oklahoma (and Central Florida) quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be a replacement for Bo Nix in operating offensive coordinator Will Stein’s high-powered offense. Oregon was second in the nation by both scoring 44.2 Points-Per-Game and generating 531.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense made a big leap in Lanning’s second year with the program by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there. But with the move to the Big Ten, the difference between competing for Pac-12 championships and competing for national championships will depend on the defensive line holding up against stout offensive lines against teams like Michigan and Ohio State.
RICE: The Owls continued to beat the teams they were supposed to beat before falling to more talented opponents last year. They finished the season with a 6-7 record after losing to Texas State in the First Responders Bowl by a 45-21 score. They finished 4-4 in the American Athletic Conference. Seventh-year head coach Mike Holmgren must replace wide receiver Luke McCaffrey, who got drafted in the third round of the NFL draft, and quarterback J.T. Daniels to graduation. But an experienced offensive line returns, along with running back Dean Conners, who generated 1174 all-purpose yards. Holmgren dipped into the transfer portal to bring in quarterback E.J. Warner. The son of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, he passed for 6104 yards and 41 touchdown passes in the last two seasons at Temple. Rice returns nine starters on defense, including their top five tacklers from last season. In all, 14 of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year return. If Warner can succeed in Holmgren’s pro-style attack, the Owls might finally be able to threaten the most difficult opponents on their roster.
SAM HOUSTON: After gaming the redshirt process prior to entering the FBS last season, the Bearkats still only posted a 3-9 record last year. K.C. Keeler returns 12 starters back from that team. Keeler brought in Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer to compete with Grant Gunnell and Hunter Watson who won a national championship at the junior college level. The defense replaces eight of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last season. Keeler is trying to add heft on both sides of the line of scrimmage whether it be from weight-training or transfer players, but in their second year at the FBS level, size at the line may continue to be the biggest weakness of this team.
SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars took some major hits in the offseason after finishing their season with a 59-10 victory against Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl to finish with a 7-6 record. Three-year head coach Kane Wommack made a surprise move by accepting the defensive coordinator job at Alabama — and he took defensive coordinator Corey Batoon and several defensive players with him. Linebackers coach Will Windham was promoted to be the next defensive coordinator with only three starters back from an outstanding group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 313.2 total Yards-Per-Game. In all, five projected starters on both sides of the ball departed in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to be the new head coach after overseeing a 15-10 record in a previous head coaching stint with Houston. His offense lost a two-time 1000-yard rusher in running back La’Damian Webb along with wide receiver Caullin Lacy who caught 91 balls last year. Applewhite does get back redshirt sophomore Gio Lopez who was MVP in the bowl game after throwing three touchdowns and adding another touchdown on the ground.
SYRACUSE: The Orange won their opening four games last season but then crashed and burned by losing seven of their last nine contests while getting outgained in ACC play by -146 net Yards-Per-Game. After failing to win more than seven games for the fifth straight time, head coach Dino Babers was let go after eight seasons — and then Syracuse made an interesting hire by tapping Fran Brown despite his lack of head coaching or even coordinator experience. Brown was the co-defensive coordinator at Temple in 2019. He has spent his last two seasons as the defensive backs coach at Georgia. But the administration may have made a shrewd hire for two reasons. First, Brown is well-respected as a great recruiter which is something this program desperately needs. Second, Brown has worked closely with three very successful head coaches in his previous stops at Temple with Matt Rhule, at Rutgers with Greg Schiano, and at Georgia with Kirby Smart. Brown has immediately raised the bar when it comes to recruiting — and he has also significantly improved the talent base of the roster through the transfer portal. He brought in nine transfers on both sides of the ball — and his biggest catch was snagging former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. The senior led the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record last season while completing 66% of his passes for 3170 yards with 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. McCord’s biggest flaw last year was not winning the Michigan game against what was the best defense in the country. Buckeye nation needed a scapegoat. Perhaps Ohio State wanted a more mobile quarterback with Chip Kelly coming over to be their offensive coordinator — but McCord is a gunslinger. The offense has been held back by their offensive line the last few seasons — and Brown addressed that area by bringing in four transfers to compete with four returning starters. The defense returns six of the 13 players who logged in at least 300 snaps along with the nine transfers. He also hired Elijah Robinson as his defensive coordinator who oversaw several good defenses at Texas A&M and was the Aggies interim head coach after Jimbo Fisher was let go last season.
TROY: After posting a 23-5 record in his two seasons with the Trojans, previous head coach Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job and took his defensive coordinator and many of his best players with him. Troy won two consecutive Sun Belt Conference Championship Games — but two dozen players entered the transfer portal to go elsewhere. And that does not even take into players like quarterback Gunnar Watson who passed for 3569 who graduated or running back Kimani Vidal who rushed for 1661 yards before entering the NFL draft. In comes Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parkeras the new head coach in a massive rebuild since only three starters return from a group that ranks 129th in the nation in returning production. The one returning starter at wide receiver was Chris Lewis who caught 10 touchdowns from 735 receiving yards but he will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer. Parker was aggressive in the transfer portal to shore up the roster — but Troy is playing catch-up this season after all the losses and defections after two fantastic seasons.
TULSA: The Golden Hurricane is trending in the wrong direction, having lost 14 of their last 21 games. Under first-year head coach Kevin Wilson, Tulsa went 4-8 with a 2-6 mark in the American Athletic Conference. They played in the AAC championship game just three years ago. Perhaps Wilson is improving this team since three of their final four losses were by seven points or less. Wilson is recruiting well — but he has been very vocal against NIL and has resisted establishing a program for this football team. Are these promising recruits simply going to jump ship when they get attractive offers? Five starters are back on offense. The biggest question with that group is the offensive line after losing six of the top nine linemen on the depth chart. The defense returns three starters but lost eight of the top nine tacklers from last season. Considering that the Golden Hurricane ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 444.7 Yards-Per-Game, perhaps overhauling that unit is in their best long-term interests anyway. Wilson brought in five transfers to add depth to that unit, but he is leaning on developing freshmen and finding long-term fits on that side of the ball.
UTAH: The Utes were ravaged by injuries last season — especially on the offensive side of the football. They only generated 348.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 23.2 Points-Per-Game which ranked 92nd and 98th in the FBS — and both those marks were the worst for the program since 2011. Tight end Brant Keith and running back Micah Bernard return — but the key is getting back quarterback Cameron Rising. In his last two seasons before tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago, he completed 64% of his passes for 5527 passing yards with 46 touchdown passes and just 13 interceptions. He ran for another 465 yards with six touchdowns in the 2022-23 season — and he has only been sacked 15 times in his last two seasons. He is a gamer who gives this offense some sorely needed swagger. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been active in the transfer adding skill position talent on the offensive side of the ball. His defenses are consistently very good as he enters his 20th season running this program. Nine starters and 12 of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps are back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to 307.2 total YPG. Utah did lose defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki to the NFL — and they are replacing four of their top five in the defensive backfield from last season. But the Utes are an immediate contender to win the Big 12 in their first season moving on from the Pac-12 — especially if Rising returns to his previous form.
UTAH STATE: The Aggies were bowl-eligible for the third straight season but lost to Georgia State by a 45-22 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl to settle with a 6-7 record. Once again, head coach Blake Anderson’s team was hit hard in the transfer portal with 25 players leaving the program, including two starting linebackers after spring practice. Anderson brought in 23 new players in the portal and added another 10 junior college transfers, but it seems like he has been taking one step forward before two steps back. Utah State outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents despite a 4-4 record in conference play. They also endured -3 net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. Twelve starters are back, including all five starters on the offensive line. But the defense must improve after the Aggies gave up 37 or more points in six of their seven losses.
UTEP: After the Miners lost 11 of their last 15 games, Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons as the head coach. In comes the 34-year-old high-energy Scotty Walden after four winning seasons as the head coach at Austin Peay. He pledges to rely less on junior college transfers to instead emphasize recruiting high school players in Texas. With only nine starters back from the UTEP team that finished 3-9 last year, Walden brought in 47 new players onto the team. He leaned heavily on his players at Austin Peay with 12 of those players transferring over including ten offensive players and five starters from last season’s Governors’ offense that generated 426.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game. While it is easy to be skeptical about how successful an offense reliant on FCS talent continuing to perform at a high level against FBS competition, this was the model that Greg Kinne effectively deployed last season at Texas State with many of his players from Incarnate Word. But the offensive line lost their top six players and the defense replaces nine of the 16 players who played at least 200 snaps last season.
VIRGINIA: Is the glass full — or is it half empty — for head coach Tony Elliott in his third year with the program? After the former Clemson offensive coordinator went 3-7 in a season cut short because of an on-campus shooting, the Cavaliers finished just 3-9 last year. But five of those losses were by a combined 17 points — and four of the losses were by a field goal or less. Virginia did upset North Carolina and Duke, who both finished in Bill Connelly’s SP+ final top 40. The defense ranked 116th in the nation by surrendering 33.8 Points-Per-Game — but the unit was ravaged by injuries, which required true freshmen to take 1400 snaps on the field. Those freshmen are now sophomores -- and the injured veterans are back with many of them now in their sixth or seventh year. Seven players on the offensive line who got starting experience last year return, including a pair of freshmen and a pair of sophomores who got significant action last season. The quarterback room returns fifth-year senior Tony Muskett and sophomore Anthony Colandrea, who both got six starts last year. But recruiting is down under Elliott’s leadership — and there are serious questions about the talent base on the roster. Elliott’s plan is to rely on his coaches to develop talent — but that may not be enough to get this program back to playing in bowl games.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: Head coach Mike MacIntyre is probably on the hot seat after overseeing consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years as the Golden Panthers head coach. In his defense, he did inherit a team that had lost 18 of 19 games before he was hired. MacIntyre has a proven track record in turning losing programs around. He got Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship Game with ten victories in his fourth season as the Buffaloes head coach. He led San Jose State to an 11-2 record in his third season with the Spartans. FIU has 14 starters back from last year’s squad — and they are getting better and deeper on the offensive and defensive lines. But after -3 net close victories in games decided by one scoring possession last year, they have a 6-2 record in games decided by eight points or less in the MacIntyre era — so they may be worse than their two-four win seasons suggests. They got outgained by -144 yards against Conference USA opponents last season. They are also losing in the transfer portal, with players like wide receiver Keith Mitchell getting poached by Notre Dame after generating more than 1100 receiving yards last year. They have an intriguing talent at quarterback in sophomore Keyone Jenkins. The former Auburn commit threw for more than 2400 yards last year and added 324 non-sack rushing yards.
GEORGIA STATE: The Panthers started strong last season by winning six of their first seven games. But they then lost their final five regular season games before rallying in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by beating Utah State by a 45-22 score to cement a winning season. But the program got rocked when Shawn Elliott, after seven years as their head coach, abruptly resigned two days into spring practice to take the linebacker coaching job at South Carolina. He claimed he made the move for family reasons (his daughter was entering her senior year in high school in the fall) after living apart after taking the Georgia State job. The administration made a fine hire in bringing Georgia associate head coach (and running backs coach) Dell McGee, who had previously coached high school football in the state. The hope is that his connections to the high school programs will help in recruiting. But the roster was ravaged in the transfer portal. Gone are running back Marcus Russell to Missouri (1350 rushing yards last year), wide receiver Robert Lewis to Auburn (70 catches for 877 receiving yards last year), and defensive end Javon Denis (their sack leader last year). More than 30 players left the program, although McGee was able to use their early February spring practice to adjust and bring in over 30 players onto his team. Georgia State has to find a new quarterback after senior Darren Grainger exhausted his eligibility. McGee brought in four transfers to compete for the job. The bigger concern may be on defense after the Panthers ranked 113th in the nation by surrendering 425.3 total Yards-Per-Game. McGee may end up being a great fit for this program — but it is difficult to have high expectations this season, given how spring practice got disrupted.
HOUSTON: After suffering a 4-8 campaign in their opening season in the Big 12, the administration moved on from head coach Dana Holgorsen after five seasons. The Cougars looked outmatched playing in the Power Four conference. They only won two games against Big 12 opponents — and six of their seven losses were by double-digits. Overall, they got outscored by 14 Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -113 net Yards-Per-Game against their new conference rivals. In comes 64-year-old Willie Fritz, who has been a winner as a head coach in all his stops. His Tulane team has won 23 of their last 27 games. His run-focused approach will improve an offense that ranked 102nd in the nation by generating only 118.7 rushing YPG. The passing game lost wide receivers Matthew Golden and Sam Brown in the transfer portal — they combined for 100 catches, 1219 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns last year. The defense will be a work in progress after Houston ranked 112th in the FBS by surrendering 423.9 total YPG. That unit returns only two of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Fritz brought in 17 transfers and two junior college players to rebuild that unit.
IOWA: Head coach Kirk Ferentz did it again by reaching the Big Ten championship game despite generating only 234.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 15.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 130th and 129th in the nation. But after getting demolished by a combined 61-0 score against the Wolverines and then Tennessee in a 35-0 loss in the Citrus Bowl, questions must be asked. Are the Hawkeyes simply the beneficiaries of getting to play in the inferior Big Ten West Division that does not feature Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State? With the expansion of the conference to include the new members from the previous Pac-12, the divisions are gone. Reaching the Big Ten championship game requires having one of the top two conference records. As I wrote in my deep dive last year on this team, I commented: “ Can the Hawkeyes develop an even mid-level offensive attack? They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator, with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG.” With the Hawkeyes falling woefully short of that mark, nepotism suffered the occasional loss with the elder Ferentz forced to let his son go. The new offensive coordinator is former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester, who ran that program for six years after being a quarterback and then a QB coach in college. Frankly, the problem was bigger than simply nepotism. Former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara has limited physical skills and lacks a strong arm to open up a vertical passing game. The wide receiver room is sparse with talent, since what gifted wideout takes their talents here? But what is particularly telling is the slow decline of the quality of the offensive line. Iowa has usually has a quality rushing attack in Ferentz's previous 25 seasons running the program because he would recruit quality talent. Perhaps it is the changing climate of college football, but Ferentz is no longer attracting that level of talent to make Iowa City their home. The defense remains elite. They limited their opponents to just 282.5 total YPG, which resulted in 14.8 PPG, ranking seventh and fourth best in the nation. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker won the Broyles Award for the best assistant coach in the nation. After finishing in the top three in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings, Parker may very well be the best defensive coordinator in the FBS. Eight starters are back from that group — and at least eight seniors are expected to be starters this season. Furthermore, 11 of the 14 players who logged in at least 400 snaps are back. Once again, the Hawkeyes will possess an outstanding defense. But can Lester scheme his way to this team scoring at least a touchdown more per game? And does he have the talent on the roster to accomplish that task?
JAMES MADISON: The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But this is a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers are back and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. Bob Chesney is the new head coach after five seasons at Holy Cross.
KENNESAW STATE: After nine seasons as a football program at the FS level including four playoff appearances, the Owls make the jump to the FBS in Conference USA this season. They are more likely to struggle in the transition as Sam Houston did last season rather than find immediate success as Jacksonville State did. Brian Bohannon is their only head coach in program history and he was crafty about sandbagging some of his best players to only play four games last year to preserve another year of eligibility. So, with 16 starters back from last year’s team, this group is better than their 3-6 record. Kennesaw State will deploy a pistol offense that operates zone-read RPOs. Sophomore quarterback Davis Bryson was one of the players who was kept out of five games to preserve another season of eligibility. He will run the ball — but he only completed two passes last season which makes the entire passing game for this offense into question. Since 2015, this program has averaged 297.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game — so running the ball will likely remain their priority when they are on offense. The Owls' defense ranked ninth in the FCS by only allowing 17.9 Points-Per-Game — but they did not register a win against an FBS opponent. Depth on that side of the ball will be a challenge as they make the jump up to the FBS and Conference USA.
LIBERTY: The Flames dominated their Conference USA competition in their debut in that conference. They were 13-0 before getting exposed against Oregon in their 45-6 loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Second-year head coach Jamey Chadwell has 12 starters back from that team led by fifth-year quarterback Kaiden Salter. The former Tennessee recruit was a great fit in Chadwell’s high-octane spread triple-option attack. He is a legitimate NFL prospect given his dual-threat skills. He passed for 2876 yards and 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions last year — and he added another 1154 non-sack rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Liberty led the nation by generating 293.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The offensive line could be a concern with only two starters returning after that unit took a hit in the transfer portal. The defense is the bigger concern as Oregon demonstrated in the bowl game. The Flames must replace linebacker Tyren DuPree who was Conference USA’s Defensive Player of the Year. The defense also lost defensive backs Kobe Singleton and Preston Hodge in the transfer portal to Oregon State and Colorado. Chadwell was aggressive in the portal in adding talent on that side of the ball at all three levels including seven power conference transfers to add size to the defensive line. Led by Chadwell’s coaching acumen on offense and an NFL prospect at quarterback, the Flames will score plenty of points which will keep them competitive against conference opponents. Possibly qualifying for the College Football Playoff will depend on better play from their defense.
LOUISIANA TECH: The Bulldogs have endured three straight 3-9 seasons which likely places head coach Sonny Cumbie on the hot seat in the third year with the program. Only ten starters return this season with more quality players leaving the program from the transfer portal than Cumbie is bringing in. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinator oversaw a mediocre offense that ranked 76th and 66th in the nation by scoring 25.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 384.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Junior Jack Turner looks to be the starting quarterback this season after the perennially underachieving Hank Bachmeier transferred again (this time to Wake Forest). Turner played in eight games last season with four starts but completed only 56.8% of his passes for 1017 passing yards with five touchdown passes but five interceptions. The wide receiver room is unproven with no returning starters and seven transfers joining the team. But the defense is the bigger problem after that unit ranked 114th and 117th by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG. Just five players are back from that group. This is a program that does not have many reliable playmakers on either side of the football.
LOUISVILLE: The Cardinals were a success last year in the first season under head coach Jeff Brohm as they reached the ACC Championship Game and finished with a 10-4 record. However, they did lose their last three games including to Florida State in the ACC title game and then to USC in the Holiday Bowl by a 42-28 score. Brohm brought in 25 players from the transfer portal last season and he hit the transfer window hard again this year by adding 28 new players from other programs to complement 15 returning starters. Quarterback Jack Plummer has run out of eligibility after Brohm brought him in from California after originally recruiting him and coaching him for four years at Purdue. Brohm turned to Texas Tech this time around to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Tyler Shough who has a strong arm but has only played 22 games in the last four years due to injuries. The defense added 14 transfer players to the seven returning starters to bolster a group that ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 317.1 total Yards-Per-Game. Most of the incoming transfers are seniors which makes the long-term culture-building at Louisville an issue. Brohm is a great coach — but perpetually adding 25 or so new players with expectations to play immediately may be unsustainable.
MARSHALL: The Thundering Herd won their first four games before dropping seven of their next eight games, before beating UTSA in the Frisco Bowl by a 35-17 score. Four of their six victories were against teams that were bowl eligible. But the offense took another step back by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 102nd in the nation. Head coach Charlie Huff is on the hot seat in his fourth year with the program. He tapped Purdue’s tight end coach and former Texas Tech quarterback, Seth Doege, as offensive coordinator to install the Air Raid offense. Huff lost over 20 players in the transfer portal but brought in more than 20 new players. Marshall needs to improve on their -11 net turnover margin from last season.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE: After 18 seasons under Rick Stockstill, the Blue Raiders have a new head coach this season with former Vanderbilt skipper Derek Mason taking over this program. He inherits only seven starters back from a group that finished 4-8 last year. Junior Nicholas Vattiato returns after the dual-threat quarterback passed for 3092 yards and added another 397 yards on the ground. Experience returns at running back but this offense ranked just 84th in the nation Rush Success Rate last season. The offensive line lost four of their top five starters and Vattiato lost five of his top six targets from the passing game. The roster lost several starters from last season including two from the offensive line and another four starters on defense including three on the defensive line and a starting linebacker. Only three starters are back on that side of the ball. Mason has a good reputation as a defensive coach, but he has a significant rebuild on his hands after the Blue Raiders ranked 86th in the nation by surrendering 395.6 total Yards-Per-Game.
NEW MEXICO: After a 4-8 campaign, the Lobos moved on from head coach Danny Gonzalez after four seasons and turned to their former defensive coordinator, Bronco Mendenhall, who served here under Rocky Long from 1998-2002. After 17 years as the head coach at BYU and Virginia, Mendenhall returns to Albuquerque with 16 bowl games in his head coaching tenure. While New Mexico was just 2-6 in the Mountain West Conference, they outgained their opponents by +10 Yards-Per-Game. Eight starters are back — and the offense will be in the hands of sophomore quarterback Devon Dampier, who is a dual-threat quarterback who played in ten games last year. The offensive coordinator is Jason Beck, who was the offensive coordinator at Syracuse last year after serving as the quarterbacks coach at Virginia and BYU under Mendenhall. The defense has six starters back from a group that ranked 123rd in the nation by giving up 35.1 Points-Per-Game. Nick Howell comes in to run the defense after serving as the defensive coordinator at Vanderbilt for the last two seasons. He is a long-time acolyte under Mendenhall.
NEW MEXICO STATE: The Aggies come off a historic season for this program where they won ten games and played in the Conference USA Championship Game in its inaugural season with the conference. The team won 16 of their last 22 games under head coach Jerry Kill who consistently gets the most out of his talent. But his ongoing health issues along with some conflicts with his administration led to him leaving the program to take the job of chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor at Vanderbilt. Conference USA Player of the Year Diego Pavia joined Kill in the move to Nashville leaving this team with a massive hole at quarterback. Former UNLV head coach and the wide receivers coach the last two seasons in Las Cruces, Tony Sanchez, takes over as the head coach — and he brought in three transfers from FBS programs and another two junior college transfers to compete to be the new starting quarterback. New Mexico State may have become the poster child representing the downside of the transfer portal as their roster was absolutely gutted in the offseason after Kill announced his departure. Besides losing Pavia, the Aggies lost their top two running backs, their top wide receiver and tight end, two starting defensive linemen, and a linebacker in the portal window. Overall, the program lost their top three quarterbacks, their top two running backs, seven of their top eight receivers, their top six defensive linemen, and 11 of their top 13 defensive backs from last season. Sanchez hustled to bring in players — headlined by safety Nick Sessions from Oklahoma State, running back Seth McGowan from Oklahoma, running back Mike Washington from Buffalo, several defensive players from the junior college ranks, and all five of those quarterbacks — but those moves feel like one step forward after taking three steps back. And despite making the conference championship game, New Mexico State got outgained against fellow Conference USA opponents by -7 Yards-Per-Game. On the plus side, four starters return on the offensive line to help what could be a nice running back room. Sanchez needs a quarterback to emerge — and the defense to somehow find itself after replacing so many players. That is a lot to ask for a program that was still an Independent two seasons ago.
OKLAHOMA STATE: In my deep dive on this team last year, my biggest question was this: “Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull?” After starting splitting their first four games and getting up by South Alabama in their third, it certainly appeared to be the former. But credit goes to head coach Mike Gundy, who changed the identity of the team after that setback. He committed to sixth-year senior Alan Bowman at quarterback. They began leaning on their good offensive line and sophomore running back Ollie Gordon II. After only rushing the ball 19 times for 109 yards in the first three games, Gordon II exploded for 1732 rushing yards for the year and won the Doak Walker Award for the best running back in college football. He rushed for at least 118 yards in nine of their last 11 games. Oklahoma State reached the Big 12 championship game before losing to Texas by a 49-21 score. They finished the season 10-4 after beating Texas A&M, 31-23, in the Texas Bowl. But a look under the hood reveals some red flags that offer caution to getting too optimistic regarding what that team was last year. Despite a 7-2 record in the Big 12, those opponents outgained them by -17 Yards-Per-Game. Their bowl victory against the Aggies was against a heavily depleted roster. The Longhorns completed 76.6% of their passes for a whopping 464 passing yards in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys' defense ranked 122nd in the nation by surrendering 441.8 total YPG. Opponents going up-tempo too often exposed that unit. This season will be revealing since Gundy has 20 starters back. Ten starters are back on defense, along with 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Bowman is back for his seventh and final season to run the offense — and Gordon II bypassed the NFL to return for his junior season. The offensive line returns all five starters and eight overall players who have been full-time starters in the past. Six redshirt super seniors lead that group. The expectation is for this group to return to the Big 12 championship game. If they do, then the recent struggles of this program were likely just a temporary blip. But questions will be asked if this team takes a step back despite returning the third most production from a year ago.
OLD DOMINION: Head coach Ricky Rahne fielded a competitive team last year and got the Monarchs to their second bowl game in his tenure. Old Dominion raced out of the gate by scoring the first 28 points before blowing a 35-13 lead in a 38-35 loss in overtime to Western Kentucky in the Famous Toastery Bowl. They finished 6-7 on the year with 11 of those games decided by one scoring possession, including five of their losses. Eight starters return from that team, including junior quarterback Grant Wilson, who started in 11 of their games. But this is still an offense struggling to get going under Rahne's leadership despite his being the former offensive coordinator for Penn State. The program continues to get pummeled in the transfer portal. Running back Kadarious Calloway left for California — and then wide receiver Reymello Murphy bolted to Arizona after spring practice. The turnstile is really impacting the Monarchs on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Old Dominion surrendered 62 sacks, which were the most in the nation last year. The defense managed only 19 sacks. The secondary must replace its top five players from last year. But the defense does get back tackling machine Jason Henderson after being named a first-team All-American. The senior registered 170 tackles last year, including 19.5 tackles for loss.
OREGON: The Ducks' only two losses last season were to Washington and both were by only three points. Their average margin of victory in their 12 wins was 33 points. Ten starters are back from that 12-2 team — and third-year head coach Dan Lanning added another 31 players to the roster. Lanning is recruited very well and he has 21 freshmen on the team. He also continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 11 new players from other programs. This approach could be risky since the influx of new players who expect to play could disrupt the chemistry of the program. Former Oklahoma (and Central Florida) quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be a replacement for Bo Nix in operating offensive coordinator Will Stein’s high-powered offense. Oregon was second in the nation by both scoring 44.2 Points-Per-Game and generating 531.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense made a big leap in Lanning’s second year with the program by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there. But with the move to the Big Ten, the difference between competing for Pac-12 championships and competing for national championships will depend on the defensive line holding up against stout offensive lines against teams like Michigan and Ohio State.
RICE: The Owls continued to beat the teams they were supposed to beat before falling to more talented opponents last year. They finished the season with a 6-7 record after losing to Texas State in the First Responders Bowl by a 45-21 score. They finished 4-4 in the American Athletic Conference. Seventh-year head coach Mike Holmgren must replace wide receiver Luke McCaffrey, who got drafted in the third round of the NFL draft, and quarterback J.T. Daniels to graduation. But an experienced offensive line returns, along with running back Dean Conners, who generated 1174 all-purpose yards. Holmgren dipped into the transfer portal to bring in quarterback E.J. Warner. The son of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, he passed for 6104 yards and 41 touchdown passes in the last two seasons at Temple. Rice returns nine starters on defense, including their top five tacklers from last season. In all, 14 of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year return. If Warner can succeed in Holmgren’s pro-style attack, the Owls might finally be able to threaten the most difficult opponents on their roster.
SAM HOUSTON: After gaming the redshirt process prior to entering the FBS last season, the Bearkats still only posted a 3-9 record last year. K.C. Keeler returns 12 starters back from that team. Keeler brought in Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer to compete with Grant Gunnell and Hunter Watson who won a national championship at the junior college level. The defense replaces eight of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last season. Keeler is trying to add heft on both sides of the line of scrimmage whether it be from weight-training or transfer players, but in their second year at the FBS level, size at the line may continue to be the biggest weakness of this team.
SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars took some major hits in the offseason after finishing their season with a 59-10 victory against Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl to finish with a 7-6 record. Three-year head coach Kane Wommack made a surprise move by accepting the defensive coordinator job at Alabama — and he took defensive coordinator Corey Batoon and several defensive players with him. Linebackers coach Will Windham was promoted to be the next defensive coordinator with only three starters back from an outstanding group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 313.2 total Yards-Per-Game. In all, five projected starters on both sides of the ball departed in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to be the new head coach after overseeing a 15-10 record in a previous head coaching stint with Houston. His offense lost a two-time 1000-yard rusher in running back La’Damian Webb along with wide receiver Caullin Lacy who caught 91 balls last year. Applewhite does get back redshirt sophomore Gio Lopez who was MVP in the bowl game after throwing three touchdowns and adding another touchdown on the ground.
SYRACUSE: The Orange won their opening four games last season but then crashed and burned by losing seven of their last nine contests while getting outgained in ACC play by -146 net Yards-Per-Game. After failing to win more than seven games for the fifth straight time, head coach Dino Babers was let go after eight seasons — and then Syracuse made an interesting hire by tapping Fran Brown despite his lack of head coaching or even coordinator experience. Brown was the co-defensive coordinator at Temple in 2019. He has spent his last two seasons as the defensive backs coach at Georgia. But the administration may have made a shrewd hire for two reasons. First, Brown is well-respected as a great recruiter which is something this program desperately needs. Second, Brown has worked closely with three very successful head coaches in his previous stops at Temple with Matt Rhule, at Rutgers with Greg Schiano, and at Georgia with Kirby Smart. Brown has immediately raised the bar when it comes to recruiting — and he has also significantly improved the talent base of the roster through the transfer portal. He brought in nine transfers on both sides of the ball — and his biggest catch was snagging former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. The senior led the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record last season while completing 66% of his passes for 3170 yards with 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. McCord’s biggest flaw last year was not winning the Michigan game against what was the best defense in the country. Buckeye nation needed a scapegoat. Perhaps Ohio State wanted a more mobile quarterback with Chip Kelly coming over to be their offensive coordinator — but McCord is a gunslinger. The offense has been held back by their offensive line the last few seasons — and Brown addressed that area by bringing in four transfers to compete with four returning starters. The defense returns six of the 13 players who logged in at least 300 snaps along with the nine transfers. He also hired Elijah Robinson as his defensive coordinator who oversaw several good defenses at Texas A&M and was the Aggies interim head coach after Jimbo Fisher was let go last season.
TROY: After posting a 23-5 record in his two seasons with the Trojans, previous head coach Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job and took his defensive coordinator and many of his best players with him. Troy won two consecutive Sun Belt Conference Championship Games — but two dozen players entered the transfer portal to go elsewhere. And that does not even take into players like quarterback Gunnar Watson who passed for 3569 who graduated or running back Kimani Vidal who rushed for 1661 yards before entering the NFL draft. In comes Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parkeras the new head coach in a massive rebuild since only three starters return from a group that ranks 129th in the nation in returning production. The one returning starter at wide receiver was Chris Lewis who caught 10 touchdowns from 735 receiving yards but he will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer. Parker was aggressive in the transfer portal to shore up the roster — but Troy is playing catch-up this season after all the losses and defections after two fantastic seasons.
TULSA: The Golden Hurricane is trending in the wrong direction, having lost 14 of their last 21 games. Under first-year head coach Kevin Wilson, Tulsa went 4-8 with a 2-6 mark in the American Athletic Conference. They played in the AAC championship game just three years ago. Perhaps Wilson is improving this team since three of their final four losses were by seven points or less. Wilson is recruiting well — but he has been very vocal against NIL and has resisted establishing a program for this football team. Are these promising recruits simply going to jump ship when they get attractive offers? Five starters are back on offense. The biggest question with that group is the offensive line after losing six of the top nine linemen on the depth chart. The defense returns three starters but lost eight of the top nine tacklers from last season. Considering that the Golden Hurricane ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 444.7 Yards-Per-Game, perhaps overhauling that unit is in their best long-term interests anyway. Wilson brought in five transfers to add depth to that unit, but he is leaning on developing freshmen and finding long-term fits on that side of the ball.
UTAH: The Utes were ravaged by injuries last season — especially on the offensive side of the football. They only generated 348.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 23.2 Points-Per-Game which ranked 92nd and 98th in the FBS — and both those marks were the worst for the program since 2011. Tight end Brant Keith and running back Micah Bernard return — but the key is getting back quarterback Cameron Rising. In his last two seasons before tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago, he completed 64% of his passes for 5527 passing yards with 46 touchdown passes and just 13 interceptions. He ran for another 465 yards with six touchdowns in the 2022-23 season — and he has only been sacked 15 times in his last two seasons. He is a gamer who gives this offense some sorely needed swagger. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been active in the transfer adding skill position talent on the offensive side of the ball. His defenses are consistently very good as he enters his 20th season running this program. Nine starters and 12 of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps are back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to 307.2 total YPG. Utah did lose defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki to the NFL — and they are replacing four of their top five in the defensive backfield from last season. But the Utes are an immediate contender to win the Big 12 in their first season moving on from the Pac-12 — especially if Rising returns to his previous form.
UTAH STATE: The Aggies were bowl-eligible for the third straight season but lost to Georgia State by a 45-22 score in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl to settle with a 6-7 record. Once again, head coach Blake Anderson’s team was hit hard in the transfer portal with 25 players leaving the program, including two starting linebackers after spring practice. Anderson brought in 23 new players in the portal and added another 10 junior college transfers, but it seems like he has been taking one step forward before two steps back. Utah State outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents despite a 4-4 record in conference play. They also endured -3 net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. Twelve starters are back, including all five starters on the offensive line. But the defense must improve after the Aggies gave up 37 or more points in six of their seven losses.
UTEP: After the Miners lost 11 of their last 15 games, Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons as the head coach. In comes the 34-year-old high-energy Scotty Walden after four winning seasons as the head coach at Austin Peay. He pledges to rely less on junior college transfers to instead emphasize recruiting high school players in Texas. With only nine starters back from the UTEP team that finished 3-9 last year, Walden brought in 47 new players onto the team. He leaned heavily on his players at Austin Peay with 12 of those players transferring over including ten offensive players and five starters from last season’s Governors’ offense that generated 426.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game. While it is easy to be skeptical about how successful an offense reliant on FCS talent continuing to perform at a high level against FBS competition, this was the model that Greg Kinne effectively deployed last season at Texas State with many of his players from Incarnate Word. But the offensive line lost their top six players and the defense replaces nine of the 16 players who played at least 200 snaps last season.
VIRGINIA: Is the glass full — or is it half empty — for head coach Tony Elliott in his third year with the program? After the former Clemson offensive coordinator went 3-7 in a season cut short because of an on-campus shooting, the Cavaliers finished just 3-9 last year. But five of those losses were by a combined 17 points — and four of the losses were by a field goal or less. Virginia did upset North Carolina and Duke, who both finished in Bill Connelly’s SP+ final top 40. The defense ranked 116th in the nation by surrendering 33.8 Points-Per-Game — but the unit was ravaged by injuries, which required true freshmen to take 1400 snaps on the field. Those freshmen are now sophomores -- and the injured veterans are back with many of them now in their sixth or seventh year. Seven players on the offensive line who got starting experience last year return, including a pair of freshmen and a pair of sophomores who got significant action last season. The quarterback room returns fifth-year senior Tony Muskett and sophomore Anthony Colandrea, who both got six starts last year. But recruiting is down under Elliott’s leadership — and there are serious questions about the talent base on the roster. Elliott’s plan is to rely on his coaches to develop talent — but that may not be enough to get this program back to playing in bowl games.
Best of luck -- Frank.
