by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA: The Wildcats were one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. After junior quarterback Jayden de Laura got injured in their fourth game at Stanford, freshman Noah Fifita came off the bench to lead Arizona to the victory. Fifita then nearly pulled off upset victories against Washington and USC in his next two starts. At that point, the Wildcats were 3-3 — but Fifita would lead the team to win their final seven games, including their first bowl game since 2017 in a 38-24 victory against Oklahoma. Fifita completed 72.4% of his passes for 2869 yards with 25 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. He established a great rapport with wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who caught 90 passes for 1402 yards and 10 touchdowns. Yet the improvement of the defense was even more profound. After ranking 125th and 124th in the nation by giving up 36.5 Points-Per-Game and 467.7 total YPG, Arizona only gave up 21.1 PPG and 357.9 total YPG last season — representing 14.5 PPG and 109.8 YPG improvements. But a month after the season ended, head coach Jed Fisch took the head coaching job at Washington and took most of the coaching staff along with running back Jonah Coleman and three defensive linemen with him. The Wildcats responded well by hiring the well-respected Brent Brennan from San Jose State to take over the program. While Brennan started late, he convinced Fifita and McMillan to stay in the program and brought in 11 transfers on defense to complement the five returning starters. In their first year in the Big 12, Arizona will be a threat as long as Fifita is still slinging it under center.
ARMY WEST POINT: My biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the schemes. It took Monken on the eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. After averaging 16.6 pass attempts per game in their first eight contests, they dropped to 7.5 pass attempts per game in their final four games. Doing a better job of controlling the time of possession, the Army defense forced 11 turnovers in those final four games. The Black Knights won their final four games to push their record up to 6-6. Army has 11 starters returning for now their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Worley remains the offensive coordinator with the offense likely to continue to operate under center with their unique offense (although conference rivals have been facing Navy’s similar scheme for years). The defense only has three starters back with 10 of the 13 players who played at least 300 snaps no longer on the team. But fifth-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody consistently develops an overachieving defense — and this group is strong up the middle.
AUBURN: After two straight losing seasons, the Tigers got back to a bowl game in the first season under new head coach Hugh Freeze. After a 31-13 loss to Maryland in the Music City Bowl, Auburn settled for their third straight losing campaign with a 6-7 record. Auburn has 11 starters back from that team — and Freeze was aggressive in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Payton Thorne returns for his senior season — and while he offers a dual threat with his legs, his inconsistency in the passing game may make him the weak link to this offense. The former Michigan State transfer led an offense that ranked 121st in the nation by averaging just 162.2 passing Yards-Per-Game. Freeze massively upgraded the wide receiver room with two five-star freshmen and a transfer class that may have been the best in the nation for that unit. The defense has five starters back — but that side of the ball lost 10 of the 17 players who logged in at least 250 snaps, including five players who got drafted into the NFL. Freeze has two new coordinators. He replaced former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery with 16-year Ole Miss assistant Derrick Nix, who was on Freeze’s staff with the Rebels for five years. After defensive coordinator Ron Roberts left for the same position at Florida, Freeze turned to former Texas A&M defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin to run his defense.
BYU: After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12.
DUKE: The Blue Devils were mostly dismissed as an afterthought in the offseason last year since only two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record and they benefited from a +16 net turnover margin. But I suspected that analysis was perhaps too simple and shortsighted for a rising star in the head coaching ranks, Mike Elko, and a potential future NFL quarterback, Riley Leonard. A year later, Elko is now the head coach at Texas A&M and Leonard is the starting quarterback for Notre Dame after Duke completed an 8-5 season with a 17-10 win against Troy in the Birmingham Bowl. The program stuck with a defensive-minded head coach by luring Manny Diaz away from Penn State where he has been their defensive coordinator the last two seasons to be their next head coach. Diaz had previously been the head coach at Miami (FL). The defense was very good under Elko last season — five starters return from the group that ranked 28th in the FBS in Yards-Per-Play allowed and tied for 16th by holding their opponents to 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The offense returns five starters with former five-star recruit Maalik Murphy leading the unit after getting two starts at quarterback late in the season. Duke did get outgained by -81 YPG against ACC opponents. Will Diaz be able to get this program to overachieve relative to expectations as they often did under former head coach David Cutcliffe and in the last two years under Elko?
KANSAS: Lance Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG.
KENTUCKY: The Wildcats come off yet another winning season under head coach Mark Stoops, entering his 12th year running the program. Kentucky finished 7-6 for the second straight year after their 38-35 loss to Clemson in the Gator Bowl. Stoops has led his team to a bowl game in eight straight seasons. They have finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 25 in five of the last six campaigns. If the Wildcats were in the Big 12, they would be perennial contenders to win and reach the championship game, and, thus, be considered playoff contenders. Yet in the brutal SEC, they rarely, if ever, enter into that conversation. Kentucky did get outgained by -59 net Yards-Per-Game. Stoops has 15 starters back from that group and added a top 20 high school recruiting class. After offensive coordinator Liam Coen left (again) to take the same job in the NFL (again), this time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stoops turned to Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to take over the offense with the hopes that he would offer some stability after he had made changes at that position for four straight seasons. The biggest question is whether Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff can find success leading the offense. The redshirt junior is a former five-star recruit, but he lacks much in-game experience after serving as a backup for three years. Hamdan will keep Kentucky’s pro-style offense, but an uptick in tempo is expected. Nine starters are back on defense from a unit that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to 353.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The unit lost two players who got drafted in the third round of the NFL draft: linebacker Trevin Wallace and cornerback Andru Phillips. But there are at least two future NFLers on this team with defensive tackle Deone Walker and linebacker J.J. Weaver — and Stoops brought in former All-American Jamon Dumas-Johnson from Georgia to bolster the linebacker corps.
IOWA STATE: The Cyclones rebounded from a 4-8 campaign two years ago to go 7-6 in a season that ended with a 36-26 loss at Memphis in the Liberty Bowl. With 18 starters back and the most returning production in the country, there are plenty of reasons for optimism for this year in Matt Campbell’s ninth year as head coach. Iowa State won five of their last seven games to close out the season with big contributions from a trio of dynamic freshmen. Running back Abu Sam III rushed for 544 yards in the last six games. Benjamin Brahmer is a 6’7 sophomore who caught 28 balls for 352 yards. Quarterback Rocco Becht was elevated to first-string last fall after the internal gambling scandal caused incumbent starter Hunter Dekkers to be suspended for the season. The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year threw for 3120 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions — and in his last four games, he threw ten touchdown passes and just one interception. He will be protected by five returning starters on the offensive line that average 6’6 in height and 323 pounds. The defense returns nine starters along with 12 freshmen and sophomores who played at least 200 snaps last year. Campbell was a little more active in the transfer portal to target some holes on both sides of the ball — but the lack of much of an NIL program is a lingering concern. The Cyclones have had winning seasons in six of the last seven years despite losing 13 of their last 16 games decided by one possession. To address that problem, Campbell attempted to manufacture adversity in what he described as his hardest spring practice in his tenure.
MEMPHIS: The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis is a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era.
MICHIGAN: After two straight losses in the college football playoff semifinals, the Wolverines finally climbed the mountain and won the national championship in the ninth season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. But the losses from the team are enormous. Harbaugh bolted to the NFL to become the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers — and he took defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him. Seventeen starters are gone from that squad, including ten on offense, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, two wide receivers drafted into the NFL, and all five starting offensive linemen. The defense lost eight starters, including five players to the NFL, headlined by defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and nickel back Mike Sainristil. In all, Michigan lost 13 players to the NFL, the second most in the nation. But talent remains. The defense still has three potential first-round draft picks in defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, along with cornerback Will Johnson. Colston Loveland may be the best tight end in the country. Running back Donovan Edwards is a former five-star recruit who now gets the chance to be the bell cow in the backfield. The team was 4-0 with now head coach Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach, including a crucial victory at Penn State when the Wolverines abandoned their passing game to rely solely on their rushing attack with the supreme confidence they would control the line of scrimmage and grind that game out. But the question is at quarterback, where the team did not hit the transfer portal to bring in a more proven commodity. They did bring in Jack Tuttle as a transfer from Indiana a year ago — the former blue-chip recruit for Utah is now in his seventh season after several years of injury. He is battling junior Alex Orji, who is a Cam Newton clone at 6’3 and 236 pounds as a powerful runner, but remains a big question with his passing accuracy. Michigan’s defense will remain very good — and the offense has talent. How far this team will go depends on how good of play they will get at quarterback.
NAVY: The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again.
NORTHWESTERN: What David Braun pulled off as an interim head coach last season was a near-miracle. In his first year as the team’s defensive coordinator after coming over from North Dakota State in the same position, he was elevated to the interim head coach in mid-July after the hazing scandal prompted the university to fire Pat Fitzgerald after 17 seasons as the team’s head coach. The program had hit rock bottom with 17 losses in their last 18 games heading into the season. After starting 1-2, Braun kept the team together and the Wildcats won seven of their last 10 games, including a 14-7 upset victory against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Braun got Northwestern back to playing smart and tough on the defensive side of the ball, where they only allowed 22.5 Points-Per-Game and ranked 35th in the nation by surrendering just 340.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats ranked 15th in the FBS by giving up only 182.9 passing YPG. Braun has 14 of the 19 players back who logged in at least 240 snaps last year. Thirteen starters return, including 12 who are either seniors or graduate students. But a lot went right for this team last year that will be very difficult to replicate. After posting a -19 net turnover margin in 2022, which was the worst mark in the nation, Northwestern completely flipped that script with a +13 net turnover margin, ranking third in the FBS. A +32 turnaround in turnovers from one season to the next is unheard of. This turnover margin helped the Wildcats pull off five upset victories last season. They also posted a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Yet they were outgained by -36.9 net YPG. Still, what Braun accomplished was remarkable. The Wildcats’ defense should be good once again. The question at quarterback remained very unsettled heading into fall camp. Northwestern only scored 22.1 PPG and generated 303.9 YPG, ranking 104th and 121st in the FBS.
SOUTH CAROLINA: After two straight winning seasons to begin the Shane Beamer tenure, the Gamecocks took a step back last year with a losing 5-7 record and no bowl game appearance. Beamer responded by hitting the transfer portal hard and bringing in more than 20 new players. The offense added 14 players from the portal, including four running backs and three offensive linemen. Beamer also added two transfer quarterbacks, although redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers is the likely starting quarterback. The dual threat is 6’3 and 240 pounds. The defense returns seven starters, and the defensive line added six new players in the portal. South Carolina surrendered 31 Points-Per-Game in their first nine games — but a shift from a 4-2-5 to a 3-3-5 helped them hold their final three opponents to just 12 PPG. Beamer has had consistently good special teams in his three seasons with the Gamecocks — but losing his excellent special teams coordinator, Pete Lembo, is a tough loss.
TEXAS STATE: Those optimistic that 34-year-old Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne could turn around this program were immediately rewarded with the Bobcats’ first bowl game in school history along with their first winning record since 2014. Texas State finished with an 8-5 record in a season that culminated with a 45-21 victory against Rice in the First Responder Bowl. Kinne hit the transfer portal hard last year by bringing in more than 40 players — and he was very active once again in the transfer window. Nineteen players transferred to other programs including quarterback T.J. Finley who left for Western Kentucky. But Kinne may be winning the transfer portal game overall by bringing in at least 18 new players including several impactful players on both sides of the ball. Running backs Deon Hankins and Torrance Burgess, Jr. come in from UTEP to join All-American Ismail Mahdi who rushed for 1331 yards last season. Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud will be the new quarterback after passing for 3657 yards with 35 touchdown passes while leading James Madison to an 11-2 record. Kinne is an attractive head coach to play for after his up-tempo innovative offense ranks 15th in the nation by generating 457.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Nine starters return on that side of the ball -- and another nine starters return on defense that still needs work after ranking 112th by allowing 32.8 Points-Per-Game. Kinne brought in several players on that side of the ball to improve the talent level of that group. The Bobcats finished 4-4 in conference play — but they outgained their Sun Belt opponents by +50 YPG.
UNLV: My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. They then lost to Kansas by a 49-36 score in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (their first bowl game since 2013) to finish the season with a 9-5 record. Odom is a professional football coach who had a successful four-year run as the head coach at Missouri before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. The Rebels have returning talent. Wide receiver Ricky White III is an All-American candidate. Linebacker Jackson Woodard and defensive end Jalen Dixon made the All-Mountain West Conference defensive team last year. And offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. Odom added size and athleticism to the defensive backs room by bringing in seven transfers to compete with three returning starters. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Marion oversaw an offense that scored 34.4 PPG which ranked 22nd in the FBS. With depth at the skill positions and an experienced offensive line, UNLV should flirt with that scoring number again. A second year under Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer could see a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. But let’s also remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA: The Wildcats were one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. After junior quarterback Jayden de Laura got injured in their fourth game at Stanford, freshman Noah Fifita came off the bench to lead Arizona to the victory. Fifita then nearly pulled off upset victories against Washington and USC in his next two starts. At that point, the Wildcats were 3-3 — but Fifita would lead the team to win their final seven games, including their first bowl game since 2017 in a 38-24 victory against Oklahoma. Fifita completed 72.4% of his passes for 2869 yards with 25 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. He established a great rapport with wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who caught 90 passes for 1402 yards and 10 touchdowns. Yet the improvement of the defense was even more profound. After ranking 125th and 124th in the nation by giving up 36.5 Points-Per-Game and 467.7 total YPG, Arizona only gave up 21.1 PPG and 357.9 total YPG last season — representing 14.5 PPG and 109.8 YPG improvements. But a month after the season ended, head coach Jed Fisch took the head coaching job at Washington and took most of the coaching staff along with running back Jonah Coleman and three defensive linemen with him. The Wildcats responded well by hiring the well-respected Brent Brennan from San Jose State to take over the program. While Brennan started late, he convinced Fifita and McMillan to stay in the program and brought in 11 transfers on defense to complement the five returning starters. In their first year in the Big 12, Arizona will be a threat as long as Fifita is still slinging it under center.
ARMY WEST POINT: My biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the schemes. It took Monken on the eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. After averaging 16.6 pass attempts per game in their first eight contests, they dropped to 7.5 pass attempts per game in their final four games. Doing a better job of controlling the time of possession, the Army defense forced 11 turnovers in those final four games. The Black Knights won their final four games to push their record up to 6-6. Army has 11 starters returning for now their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Worley remains the offensive coordinator with the offense likely to continue to operate under center with their unique offense (although conference rivals have been facing Navy’s similar scheme for years). The defense only has three starters back with 10 of the 13 players who played at least 300 snaps no longer on the team. But fifth-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody consistently develops an overachieving defense — and this group is strong up the middle.
AUBURN: After two straight losing seasons, the Tigers got back to a bowl game in the first season under new head coach Hugh Freeze. After a 31-13 loss to Maryland in the Music City Bowl, Auburn settled for their third straight losing campaign with a 6-7 record. Auburn has 11 starters back from that team — and Freeze was aggressive in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Payton Thorne returns for his senior season — and while he offers a dual threat with his legs, his inconsistency in the passing game may make him the weak link to this offense. The former Michigan State transfer led an offense that ranked 121st in the nation by averaging just 162.2 passing Yards-Per-Game. Freeze massively upgraded the wide receiver room with two five-star freshmen and a transfer class that may have been the best in the nation for that unit. The defense has five starters back — but that side of the ball lost 10 of the 17 players who logged in at least 250 snaps, including five players who got drafted into the NFL. Freeze has two new coordinators. He replaced former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery with 16-year Ole Miss assistant Derrick Nix, who was on Freeze’s staff with the Rebels for five years. After defensive coordinator Ron Roberts left for the same position at Florida, Freeze turned to former Texas A&M defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin to run his defense.
BYU: After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12.
DUKE: The Blue Devils were mostly dismissed as an afterthought in the offseason last year since only two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record and they benefited from a +16 net turnover margin. But I suspected that analysis was perhaps too simple and shortsighted for a rising star in the head coaching ranks, Mike Elko, and a potential future NFL quarterback, Riley Leonard. A year later, Elko is now the head coach at Texas A&M and Leonard is the starting quarterback for Notre Dame after Duke completed an 8-5 season with a 17-10 win against Troy in the Birmingham Bowl. The program stuck with a defensive-minded head coach by luring Manny Diaz away from Penn State where he has been their defensive coordinator the last two seasons to be their next head coach. Diaz had previously been the head coach at Miami (FL). The defense was very good under Elko last season — five starters return from the group that ranked 28th in the FBS in Yards-Per-Play allowed and tied for 16th by holding their opponents to 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The offense returns five starters with former five-star recruit Maalik Murphy leading the unit after getting two starts at quarterback late in the season. Duke did get outgained by -81 YPG against ACC opponents. Will Diaz be able to get this program to overachieve relative to expectations as they often did under former head coach David Cutcliffe and in the last two years under Elko?
KANSAS: Lance Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG.
KENTUCKY: The Wildcats come off yet another winning season under head coach Mark Stoops, entering his 12th year running the program. Kentucky finished 7-6 for the second straight year after their 38-35 loss to Clemson in the Gator Bowl. Stoops has led his team to a bowl game in eight straight seasons. They have finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 25 in five of the last six campaigns. If the Wildcats were in the Big 12, they would be perennial contenders to win and reach the championship game, and, thus, be considered playoff contenders. Yet in the brutal SEC, they rarely, if ever, enter into that conversation. Kentucky did get outgained by -59 net Yards-Per-Game. Stoops has 15 starters back from that group and added a top 20 high school recruiting class. After offensive coordinator Liam Coen left (again) to take the same job in the NFL (again), this time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stoops turned to Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to take over the offense with the hopes that he would offer some stability after he had made changes at that position for four straight seasons. The biggest question is whether Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff can find success leading the offense. The redshirt junior is a former five-star recruit, but he lacks much in-game experience after serving as a backup for three years. Hamdan will keep Kentucky’s pro-style offense, but an uptick in tempo is expected. Nine starters are back on defense from a unit that ranked 17th in the nation by holding their opponents to 353.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The unit lost two players who got drafted in the third round of the NFL draft: linebacker Trevin Wallace and cornerback Andru Phillips. But there are at least two future NFLers on this team with defensive tackle Deone Walker and linebacker J.J. Weaver — and Stoops brought in former All-American Jamon Dumas-Johnson from Georgia to bolster the linebacker corps.
IOWA STATE: The Cyclones rebounded from a 4-8 campaign two years ago to go 7-6 in a season that ended with a 36-26 loss at Memphis in the Liberty Bowl. With 18 starters back and the most returning production in the country, there are plenty of reasons for optimism for this year in Matt Campbell’s ninth year as head coach. Iowa State won five of their last seven games to close out the season with big contributions from a trio of dynamic freshmen. Running back Abu Sam III rushed for 544 yards in the last six games. Benjamin Brahmer is a 6’7 sophomore who caught 28 balls for 352 yards. Quarterback Rocco Becht was elevated to first-string last fall after the internal gambling scandal caused incumbent starter Hunter Dekkers to be suspended for the season. The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year threw for 3120 yards with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions — and in his last four games, he threw ten touchdown passes and just one interception. He will be protected by five returning starters on the offensive line that average 6’6 in height and 323 pounds. The defense returns nine starters along with 12 freshmen and sophomores who played at least 200 snaps last year. Campbell was a little more active in the transfer portal to target some holes on both sides of the ball — but the lack of much of an NIL program is a lingering concern. The Cyclones have had winning seasons in six of the last seven years despite losing 13 of their last 16 games decided by one possession. To address that problem, Campbell attempted to manufacture adversity in what he described as his hardest spring practice in his tenure.
MEMPHIS: The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis is a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era.
MICHIGAN: After two straight losses in the college football playoff semifinals, the Wolverines finally climbed the mountain and won the national championship in the ninth season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. But the losses from the team are enormous. Harbaugh bolted to the NFL to become the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers — and he took defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him. Seventeen starters are gone from that squad, including ten on offense, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, two wide receivers drafted into the NFL, and all five starting offensive linemen. The defense lost eight starters, including five players to the NFL, headlined by defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and nickel back Mike Sainristil. In all, Michigan lost 13 players to the NFL, the second most in the nation. But talent remains. The defense still has three potential first-round draft picks in defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, along with cornerback Will Johnson. Colston Loveland may be the best tight end in the country. Running back Donovan Edwards is a former five-star recruit who now gets the chance to be the bell cow in the backfield. The team was 4-0 with now head coach Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach, including a crucial victory at Penn State when the Wolverines abandoned their passing game to rely solely on their rushing attack with the supreme confidence they would control the line of scrimmage and grind that game out. But the question is at quarterback, where the team did not hit the transfer portal to bring in a more proven commodity. They did bring in Jack Tuttle as a transfer from Indiana a year ago — the former blue-chip recruit for Utah is now in his seventh season after several years of injury. He is battling junior Alex Orji, who is a Cam Newton clone at 6’3 and 236 pounds as a powerful runner, but remains a big question with his passing accuracy. Michigan’s defense will remain very good — and the offense has talent. How far this team will go depends on how good of play they will get at quarterback.
NAVY: The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again.
NORTHWESTERN: What David Braun pulled off as an interim head coach last season was a near-miracle. In his first year as the team’s defensive coordinator after coming over from North Dakota State in the same position, he was elevated to the interim head coach in mid-July after the hazing scandal prompted the university to fire Pat Fitzgerald after 17 seasons as the team’s head coach. The program had hit rock bottom with 17 losses in their last 18 games heading into the season. After starting 1-2, Braun kept the team together and the Wildcats won seven of their last 10 games, including a 14-7 upset victory against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Braun got Northwestern back to playing smart and tough on the defensive side of the ball, where they only allowed 22.5 Points-Per-Game and ranked 35th in the nation by surrendering just 340.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats ranked 15th in the FBS by giving up only 182.9 passing YPG. Braun has 14 of the 19 players back who logged in at least 240 snaps last year. Thirteen starters return, including 12 who are either seniors or graduate students. But a lot went right for this team last year that will be very difficult to replicate. After posting a -19 net turnover margin in 2022, which was the worst mark in the nation, Northwestern completely flipped that script with a +13 net turnover margin, ranking third in the FBS. A +32 turnaround in turnovers from one season to the next is unheard of. This turnover margin helped the Wildcats pull off five upset victories last season. They also posted a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Yet they were outgained by -36.9 net YPG. Still, what Braun accomplished was remarkable. The Wildcats’ defense should be good once again. The question at quarterback remained very unsettled heading into fall camp. Northwestern only scored 22.1 PPG and generated 303.9 YPG, ranking 104th and 121st in the FBS.
SOUTH CAROLINA: After two straight winning seasons to begin the Shane Beamer tenure, the Gamecocks took a step back last year with a losing 5-7 record and no bowl game appearance. Beamer responded by hitting the transfer portal hard and bringing in more than 20 new players. The offense added 14 players from the portal, including four running backs and three offensive linemen. Beamer also added two transfer quarterbacks, although redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers is the likely starting quarterback. The dual threat is 6’3 and 240 pounds. The defense returns seven starters, and the defensive line added six new players in the portal. South Carolina surrendered 31 Points-Per-Game in their first nine games — but a shift from a 4-2-5 to a 3-3-5 helped them hold their final three opponents to just 12 PPG. Beamer has had consistently good special teams in his three seasons with the Gamecocks — but losing his excellent special teams coordinator, Pete Lembo, is a tough loss.
TEXAS STATE: Those optimistic that 34-year-old Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne could turn around this program were immediately rewarded with the Bobcats’ first bowl game in school history along with their first winning record since 2014. Texas State finished with an 8-5 record in a season that culminated with a 45-21 victory against Rice in the First Responder Bowl. Kinne hit the transfer portal hard last year by bringing in more than 40 players — and he was very active once again in the transfer window. Nineteen players transferred to other programs including quarterback T.J. Finley who left for Western Kentucky. But Kinne may be winning the transfer portal game overall by bringing in at least 18 new players including several impactful players on both sides of the ball. Running backs Deon Hankins and Torrance Burgess, Jr. come in from UTEP to join All-American Ismail Mahdi who rushed for 1331 yards last season. Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud will be the new quarterback after passing for 3657 yards with 35 touchdown passes while leading James Madison to an 11-2 record. Kinne is an attractive head coach to play for after his up-tempo innovative offense ranks 15th in the nation by generating 457.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Nine starters return on that side of the ball -- and another nine starters return on defense that still needs work after ranking 112th by allowing 32.8 Points-Per-Game. Kinne brought in several players on that side of the ball to improve the talent level of that group. The Bobcats finished 4-4 in conference play — but they outgained their Sun Belt opponents by +50 YPG.
UNLV: My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. They then lost to Kansas by a 49-36 score in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (their first bowl game since 2013) to finish the season with a 9-5 record. Odom is a professional football coach who had a successful four-year run as the head coach at Missouri before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. The Rebels have returning talent. Wide receiver Ricky White III is an All-American candidate. Linebacker Jackson Woodard and defensive end Jalen Dixon made the All-Mountain West Conference defensive team last year. And offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. Odom added size and athleticism to the defensive backs room by bringing in seven transfers to compete with three returning starters. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Marion oversaw an offense that scored 34.4 PPG which ranked 22nd in the FBS. With depth at the skill positions and an experienced offensive line, UNLV should flirt with that scoring number again. A second year under Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer could see a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. But let’s also remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG.
Best of luck -- Frank.
