Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/07/2023

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Friday, July 7, 2023

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI

Where to Watch:  BSWI

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +100, Brewers -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +100, Brewers -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +100, Brewers -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Cincinnati Reds:  48-39 (1st place, NL Central)

Milwaukee Brewers:  46-41 (2nd place, NL Central)

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Cincinnati Reds:  7-3 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  6-4 last 10

The Reds entered their last series off of a win and won their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1. They enter this game with a 48-39 record overall and have a road record of 25-18. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Washington Nationals still to be played on Thursday. They also won the series opener, 2nd game, and the 3rd game of that series on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Rookie pitcher Brandon Williamson is their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA this season. His team won all 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 12 Ks on 4 hits through 7.2 IP against the San Diego Padres.

The Brewers entered their last series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1. They enter this game with a 46-41 record overall and have a home record of 23-20. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday with the 4th game of their series against the Chicago Cubs still to be played on Thursday. They also lost the 1st game of that series on Monday but won the 2nd game and the 3rd game on Tuesday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .681 OPS. Freddy Peralta is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Corbin Burnes is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-5 with a 4.00 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 7 strikeouts on 1 hit through 7 innings played against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have been surging up the standings lately as they have taken over the lead of the NL Central and are almost 10 games over .500 now. They have been rolling lately and a lot of their wins have been because of their really strong offense that has been putting up a ton of runs lately. The Brewers don't have nearly as good an offense as the Reds do as the Brewers have one of the worst offenses in the entire MLB. They do have a solid starter on the mound here with Burnes starting but even though he has been pitching a lot better in his starts lately, he has still been struggling in a lot of his starts this season giving up a lot more runs than usual and he will be at risk to giving up a ton of runs here against this hot Reds offense. The Reds have Abbott on the mound here and even though he is still in his rookie season, the Reds have won every game with him starting and he hasn't given up many runs in any of his starts at all. The Brewers already have a bad offense and their lineup will struggle to put up runs here with how good Abbott has been. Burnes is also going to struggle to keep the Reds off the board here as they will lean on their offense in this game like they have been doing a lot lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game.

Reds Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 7, 2023 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 6 Brewers 2.

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Cincinnati Reds: 48-39 (+19.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 25-18 (+14.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 40-22 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher. 26-17 OVER in road games.

Milwaukee Brewers: 22-20 (-6.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 13-16 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 20-12 OVER when the money line is -100 to -150. CORBIN BURNES is 11-6 OVER in all games.

Cincinnati Reds:  H. Greene (SP) Early Aug - Hip. B. Lively (RP) Mid July - Pectoral. T. Santillan (SP) Mid July - Back. R. Sanmartin (SP) Mid July - Elbow. J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. C. Legumina (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. N. Lodolo (SP) Early Aug - Calf. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow. V. Gutierrez (SP) Mid July - Elbow. T. Antone (RP) Mid July - Elbow.

Milwaukee Brewers:  R. Tellez (1B) Out indefinitely - Forearm. J. Alexander (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. B. Sousa (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. B. Woodruff (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. T. Taylor (CF) Mid July - Elbow. J. Cousins (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Ruf (DH) Mid Aug - Knee. G. Mitchell (LF) out for season - Shoulder. A. Ashby (SP) Early Sept - Shoulder. J. Wilson (RP) Mid July - Elbow.

"Took great swings all night, even some foul balls that he fouled straight back.” - David Bell on Elly De La Cruz after his team’s win against the Nationals in their game on Wednesday.

“They found grass with two hits that were not well hit. Then Tauchman had a good at-bat. Give him credit for having a nice at-bat and fouling off some pitches and put a ball in play. Then we made a defensive mistake and that was it.” - Craig Counsell after his team’s loss against the Cubs in their game on Wednesday.

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) SS

Jonathan India (R) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B

Jake Fraley (L) RF

Joey Votto (L) 1B

Spencer Steer (R) DH

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

Will Benson (L) LF

Christian Yelich (L) LF

William Contreras (R) C

Willy Adames (R) SS

Owen Miller (R) 1B

Jahmai Jones (R) DH

Blake Perkins (S) RF

Brian Anderson (R) 3B

Andruw Monasterio (R) 2B

Joey Wiemer (R) CF

Batting Average:  Elly De La Cruz (.318)

Hits:  Spencer Steer (90)

Home Runs:  Spencer Steer (14)

RBI:  Jake Fraley (51)

Stolen Bases:  Jake Fraley (16)

Wins:  Ian Gibaut (8)

Saves:  Alexis Diaz (24)

ERA:  Ricky Karcher (0.00)

Batting Average:  Abraham Toro (.500)

Hits:  Christian Yelich (89)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (13)

RBI:  Christian Yelich (42)

Stolen Bases:  Christian Yelich (20)

Wins:  Corbin Burnes (6)

Saves:  Devin Williams (18)

ERA:  Alex Claudio (0.00)

Managers:

Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell (9th season)