by Jazz Ray
Wednesday, Aug 05, 2026Last season, the Atlanta Falcons finished 8-9, extending their streak of losing records to eight years. This year, they’re projected for 7.5 wins and appear poised to take a slight step back; I expect them to end up with seven victories or fewer. Here’s why.
The Falcons enter the season with a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski and a restructured front office under general manager Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan. A quarterback competition is underway featuring Michael Penix Jr. (dealing with knee concerns), Tua Tagovailoa (managing a back issue), third-stringer Trevor Siemian, and undrafted rookie Jack Strand. Regardless of who starts, Atlanta lacks an elite option at the position.
With a new regime in place, the immediate pressure to win is reduced, giving the group time to develop and address the problems they inherited.
It’s worth noting the earlier misstep of handing a large contract to an aging, injury-prone Kirk Cousins only to draft Penix shortly afterward. Cousins has since been released, and questions remain about Penix. Errors like these often hinder a franchise for years.
Offensively, the Falcons struggled last year. They outscored opponents by 32 points in the first half of games but were outscored by 80 in the second half: the worst second-half scoring differential in the NFC. While the defense held up reasonably well, the offense ranked near the bottom of the league, with only five teams scoring fewer points. The 2025 squad showed flashes but was swept by Carolina and also fell to the Jets.
Atlanta benefits from playing in the NFC South. The Falcons' 8-9 mark last season was good enough for a three-way tie atop the division. The group remains relatively weak overall, yet the other teams appear to be progressing while the Falcons are still rebuilding. Bijan Robinson is an outstanding running back, but he can’t carry the load by himself—especially when defenses stack the box against him and Atlanta is likely to be frequently playing from behind.
Beyond the divisional slate, the schedule offers few soft spots. September includes road games at Pittsburgh and Green Bay. October brings matchups against Baltimore, Chicago, and San Francisco. In November they face the Bengals in Madrid (those long trips can be taxing), along with the Chiefs and a road game at Minnesota. December features Detroit plus road contests against Cleveland and Washington. Assuming a 3-3 record within the division, which they'll be fortunate to get, securing five wins outside it looks like a steep challenge.
The Pick: Falcons Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins. One has to lay some juice to play at Under 7.5 (as of Aug 5th: -130 at BetOnline, -150 at Pinnacle, -160 at DraftKings) but that cost is well worth it. There's little chance of Atlanta reaching eight wins.
The Falcons enter the season with a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski and a restructured front office under general manager Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan. A quarterback competition is underway featuring Michael Penix Jr. (dealing with knee concerns), Tua Tagovailoa (managing a back issue), third-stringer Trevor Siemian, and undrafted rookie Jack Strand. Regardless of who starts, Atlanta lacks an elite option at the position.
With a new regime in place, the immediate pressure to win is reduced, giving the group time to develop and address the problems they inherited.
It’s worth noting the earlier misstep of handing a large contract to an aging, injury-prone Kirk Cousins only to draft Penix shortly afterward. Cousins has since been released, and questions remain about Penix. Errors like these often hinder a franchise for years.
Offensively, the Falcons struggled last year. They outscored opponents by 32 points in the first half of games but were outscored by 80 in the second half: the worst second-half scoring differential in the NFC. While the defense held up reasonably well, the offense ranked near the bottom of the league, with only five teams scoring fewer points. The 2025 squad showed flashes but was swept by Carolina and also fell to the Jets.
Atlanta benefits from playing in the NFC South. The Falcons' 8-9 mark last season was good enough for a three-way tie atop the division. The group remains relatively weak overall, yet the other teams appear to be progressing while the Falcons are still rebuilding. Bijan Robinson is an outstanding running back, but he can’t carry the load by himself—especially when defenses stack the box against him and Atlanta is likely to be frequently playing from behind.
Beyond the divisional slate, the schedule offers few soft spots. September includes road games at Pittsburgh and Green Bay. October brings matchups against Baltimore, Chicago, and San Francisco. In November they face the Bengals in Madrid (those long trips can be taxing), along with the Chiefs and a road game at Minnesota. December features Detroit plus road contests against Cleveland and Washington. Assuming a 3-3 record within the division, which they'll be fortunate to get, securing five wins outside it looks like a steep challenge.
The Pick: Falcons Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins. One has to lay some juice to play at Under 7.5 (as of Aug 5th: -130 at BetOnline, -150 at Pinnacle, -160 at DraftKings) but that cost is well worth it. There's little chance of Atlanta reaching eight wins.
