California Golden Bears vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/11/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Venue:  Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Cal +3.5, FSU -3.5; Over/Under:  152.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Cal +3.5, FSU -3.5; Over/Under:  152.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Cal +3.5, FSU -3.5; Over/Under:  152.5 points

California Golden Bears:  21-10 (9-9) (9th place, ACC)

Florida State Seminoles:  17-14 (10-8) (8th place, ACC)

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California Golden Bears:  3-2  last 5

Florida State Seminoles:  4-1  last 5

California is entering this game with a 21-10 record overall, a 9-9 record in conference games, and they are 1-0 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in their last game. Dai Dai Ames led the team in points in that game with 31 while Justin Pippen was next on the team with 17. Justin Pippen led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Lee Dort led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 35.6% from the field, 27.6% from 3-point range, and 82.1% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 77.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 72.5 PPG against them. California has an ATS record of 16-14 this season and their O/U record is 13-17.

Florida State is entering this game with a 17-14 record overall, a 10-8 conference record, and they are 0-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the SMU Mustangs in their last game. Chauncey Wiggins led the team in points in that game with 31 while Robert McCray V was next on the team with 17. Robert McCray V led the team in assists with 12 in that game while Chauncey Wiggins led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 51.7% from the field, 47.1% from 3-point range, and 62.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 77.5 PPG against them. Florida State has an ATS record of 17-13-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-16.

The current betting odds have Florida State listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Florida State has looked good in their games this season with their 17-14 record overall and their 10-8 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They haven't looked great in their neutral site games though with their 0-3 record in those this season. Meanwhile, California has looked good in their games this season with their 21-10 record overall and their 9-9 conference record which has them right in the middle of the ACC. They are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this year. California hasn't looked that bad lately as they are 3-2 in their last 5 games and they were one of the hottest teams entering the conference schedule, but they are off a loss to Wake Forest in their last game of the season and they have been really up and down in the ACC all year. Florida State has also been really up and down this year, but they put themselves in a huge hole to start conference play. They were one of the worst teams in the ACC over the first half of the season, but they turned things around and have been one of the hottest teams lately. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games and they have been rolling lately with 3 wins in a row now, coming off a double digit win over a solid SMU team in their last game of the season. Florida State not only has the momentum on their side entering this game, but they have also looked a lot better down the stretch and they are a team that can make some noise in this ACC tournament with the way they have been playing lately. The best way to place a bet here is on Florida State to cover the spread in this game. 

California Florida State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, March 11, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Florida State 79 California 71.

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California Golden Bears: 33-20 ATS as an underdog. 7-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 8-4 ATS in all tournament games. 8-1 OVER in all neutral court games. 10-5 OVER after playing 2 consecutive road games.

Florida State Seminoles: 0-3 ATS in all neutral court games. 5-9 ATS at home after scoring 85 points or more. 2-6 ATS at home in March games. 28-17 OVER when the total is 150 to 159.5. 23-17 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

California Golden Bears:  B. Fisher (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Clark (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Butler (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Marbury II (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Ruff (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Petraitis (F) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Florida State Seminoles:  A. Swinton (F) Out - Knee. X. Osceola (G) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“This is an extremely disappointing outcome tonight. We’re going to find out what went wrong (and) how to fix it.” - Mark Madsen after his team’s loss against Wake Forest in their regular season finale. 

“They played with the energy and the passion, and the urgency, the competitive spirit that I want to continue to build this program with. I would sign up to coach these six [again] any day of the week from this season until whenever I retire.” - Luke Loucks after his team’s win against SMU in their regular season finale. 

D. Ames 

C. Bell 

J. Camden 

L. Dort 

J. Pippen

T. Bassong 

L. Jones 

R. McCray 

A. Steen 

C. Wiggins

PPG: Dai Dai Ames (16.9)

APG: Justin Pippen (4.4)

Reb/G: Lee Dort (7.6)

PPG: Robert McCray V (15.6)

APG: Robert McCray V (6.1)

Reb/G: Lajae Jones (5.7)

Coaches:

California Golden Bears: Mark Madsen (3rd season)

Florida State Seminoles: Luke Loucks (1st season)