by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 04, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 9, 2025
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -9.5, Dolphins +9.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -9.5, Dolphins +9.5; Over/Under: 50 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -9.5, Dolphins +9.5; Over/Under: 50 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 6-2 (2nd place, AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 2-7 (3rd place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs 28-21.
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 28-6.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 28-21. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 23/26 passes for 273 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 114. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Cole Bishop led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Joey Bosa and Christian Benford each led the defense in sacks with 1. Maxwell Hairston came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 2-7 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 28-6. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 25/40 passes for 261 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 67. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 82 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Dante Trader Jr. led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Jaelan Phillips and Benito Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They slipped up with 2 losses in a row after starting the season 4-0, but they came out of their bye week with 2 wins in a row now. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-7 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East with one of the worst records in the NFL. They are off a 28-6 loss to the Ravens in their last one and they played that one on Thursday so they have had extra time to prepare for this game, but it's not going to matter with the disaster of a season that the Dolphins have been having. They have been one of the worst teams in the NFL all year with one of the worst defenses too. They already fired their GM after their loss to the Ravens and Mike McDaniel is basically a dead man walking at this point. The Bills are starting to roll again after stumbling with those 2 losses, and they have a ton of momentum on their side now, coming off a 28-21 win over the Chiefs in their last one. The Dolphins are in a much worse situation now than when these two faced each other earlier this season and the Bills are going to be motivated to pick up another division win knowing they aren't even in the lead at the moment. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 9, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 31 Dolphins 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 1-9 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. 0-9 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 0-8 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 7-2 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 7-3 UNDER in games played on a grass field.
Miami Dolphins: 6-3 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 4-1 ATS at home after playing a game at home. 6-3 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 5-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Wrist. J. Phillips (DL) Injured - Wrist. S. Thompson (LB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Jones (DL) Injured - Calf. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Groin. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Ankle. A. Epenesa (DL) Injured - Concussion. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Knee. J. Cook III (RB) Injured - Ankle. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Groin.
Miami Dolphins: R. Douglas (CB) Injured - Foot. M. Fitzpatrick (S) Injured - Thumb. B. Chubb (LB) Injured - Foot. Z. Sieler (DL) Injured - Shoulder. I. Melifonwu (S) Injured - Thumb. D. Eskridge (WR) Injured - Shoulder. A. Davis (S) Injured - Quadricep. A. Ingold (FB) Injured - Neck. J. Waddle (WR) Injured - Foot. J. Hill (TE) Injured - Ankle. C. Robinson (LB) Injured - Concussion. O. Gordon II (RB) Injured - Ankle. D. Trader Jr. (S) Injured - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“We’re not where we need to be, but I saw the team come together and when it got tough, they stood tall.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Chiefs in their last game.
“You want to dictate the terms. You want to fix stuff. That sucks. All of that does. But it's a pretty consistent formula of — fans enjoy winning. Our expectation is that we have to do that work and do the right things for fans to enjoy the experience. Unfortunately we didn't do that tonight, so we've got to get back to work to give them something to cheer about.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Shavers, Tyrell
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Westbrook-Ikhine, Nick
WR Washington, Malik
TE Conner, Tanner
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (1,833)
Rushing: James Cook (867)
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid (411)
Touchdowns: James Cook (7)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (1,779)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (606)
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (586)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (7)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
