Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/17/2026

Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, January 17, 2026

Venue:  Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bills +1.5, Broncos -1.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bills +1, Broncos -1; Over/Under:  46.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bills +1, Broncos -1; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Buffalo Bills:  12-5 (2nd place, AFC East)

Denver Broncos:  14-3 (1st place, AFC West)

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Buffalo Bills:  won their last game on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24.

Denver Broncos:  won their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 19-3.

The Bills are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-2 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 28/35 passes for 273 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 46. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 82 receiving yards on 12 receptions. Shaq Thompson led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 1. Shaq Thompson and Cole Bishop each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Broncos are entering this game with a 14-3 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 8-1 in their home games, 5-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 19-3. Bo Nix was the starting QB and he completed 14/23 passes for 141 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bo Nix led the team in rushing yards with 49. Evan Engram led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Ja'Quan McMillian led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Nik Bonitto led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Ja'Quan McMillian came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Broncos listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Broncos have looked great in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which had them right at the top of the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They have looked great on their home field too with their 8-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked good in their games this season with their 12-5 record overall which had them right near the top of the AFC East. They have been a good road team too with their 5-3 road record this year. The Bills have been rolling into the playoffs and they just picked up a huge win in the Wild Card Round. They are off a 27-24 win over the Jaguars who were really good this year, and that was the 1st road win for the Bills in the playoffs in over 30 years. As good as they looked in that win, it is clear that Josh Allen is putting the offense on his back, and they still don't have a great defense either. The Broncos earned the number 1 seed in the AFC with their 19-3 win over the Chargers in their last one so they are coming into this one with rest on their side from the bye week. The Broncos have also been rolling all year, especially in the back half of the season, and unlike the Bills, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Their offense has been really up and down this year, but they keep finding ways to win games and have been really tough to beat at home. The home advantage along with the Broncos having the much better defense should be enough to edge out this Bills team that has a lot of flaws. The best way to place a bet here is on the Broncos to cover the spread in this game. 

Bills Broncos Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Saturday, January 17, 2026 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Broncos 21 Bills 17.

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Buffalo Bills: 15-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 16-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 15-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 11-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 10-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Denver Broncos: 2-5 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 3-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 1-5 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 9-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 14-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Buffalo Bills:  T. Sanders (DL) Injured - Shoulder. M. Prater (K) Questionable - Quad. J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Hamstring. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Illness. J. Poyer (S) Injured - Hamstring. S. Thompson (LB) Questionable - Neck. D. Jones (DL) Injured - Calf. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Foot. T. Bernard (LB) Out - Calf. C. Lewis (CB) Injured - Toe. T. Johnson (RB) Questionable - Ankle. D. Hamlin (S) Out - Pectoral. J. Palmer (WR) Out - Ankle. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee. C. Bishop (S) Injured - Ribs. M. Hairston (CB) Out - Ankle.

Denver Broncos:  None.

“When your quarterback’s that type of warrior, that type of competitor, it just goes through the whole team.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Jags in the Wild Card Round. 

“We've been fortunate this year to play a lot of close games and we've won a lot of close games. It hasn't been the pretty ones that you want, the flashy, big-time wins, the ones you get to go there and rest a little bit in the fourth. But ... it's put us in a position to see what winning football is like." - Bo Nix after their win against the LA Chargers in their regular season finale. 

WR Coleman, Keon

WR Shavers, Tyrell

WR Shakir, Khalil

TE Knox, Dawson

QB Allen, Josh

RB Cook, James

FB Gilliam, Reggie

WR Sutton, Courtland

WR Bryant, Pat

WR Franklin, Troy

TE Trautman, Adam

QB Nix, Bo

RB Harvey, RJ

FB Prentice, Adam

Passing: Josh Allen (3,668)

Rushing: James Cook (1,621)

Receiving: Khalil Shakir (719)

Touchdowns: James Cook (14)

Passing: Bo Nix (3,931)

Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (772)

Receiving: Courtland Sutton (1,017)

Touchdowns: RJ Harvey (12)

Coaches:

Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)

Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (3rd season)