by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 10, 2025
Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Monday, October 13, 2025
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -4.5, Falcons +4.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -4.5, Falcons +4.5; Over/Under: 50 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -4.5, Falcons +4.5; Over/Under: 50 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 4-1 (1st place, AFC East)
Atlanta Falcons: 2-2 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Buffalo Bills: lost their last game at home against the New England Patriots 23-20.
Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the Washington Commanders 34-27.
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the New England Patriots 23-20. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 22/31 passes for 253 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Josh Allen led the team in rushing yards with 53. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 108 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Terrel Bernard led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau, Shaq Thompson, and Cole Bishop each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Washington Commanders 34-27. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 20/26 passes for 313 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 75 and 1 TD. Drake London led the receivers with 110 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jessie Bates III led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Zach Harrison led the defense in sacks with 1. Xavier Watts came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East. They just took their first loss of the season to the Patriots in a tight game, but they will be looking to bounce back in this one. They have been rolling over teams in most of their wins this season and they are going to use this game as a get right game. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They are coming out of their bye week and won their last game against the Commanders 34-27, but they have been a really up and down team all season. They still have a young QB leading this team too so he is going to make mistakes and put the team in bad situations sometimes. The Falcons do have an advantage being at home with extra rest on their side, but this is an angry Bills team that lost to a divisional rival at home on Sunday Night Football and they are going to make sure they don't get embarrassed in prime time again. This is a great game for the Bills to bounce back against a team that they are better than on both sides of the ball. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, October 13, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Bills 28 Falcons 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 6-3 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 8-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 yards/game or more. 5-2 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 6-1 OVER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. 10-4 OVER after playing a division game.
Atlanta Falcons: 13-24 ATS in all games. 4-9 ATS as an underdog. 2-7 ATS in non-conference games. 1-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 8-2 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 6-3 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: D. Dawkins (OT) Injured - Thumb. D. Hamlin (S) Injured - Pectoral. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Oblique. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Pectoral. E. Oliver (DL) Injured - Ankle. T. Rapp (S) Injured - Nose. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Neck. T. Sanders (DL) Injured - Knee. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Knee.
Atlanta Falcons: K. Hodge (WR) Injured - Groin. T. Graham (DL) Injured - Calf. A. Terrell Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Mooney (WR) Injured - Hamstring. C. Phillips III (CB) Injured - Triceps. N. Brooks (CB) Injured - Concussion. N. Carter (RB) Injured - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“I thought we beat ourselves. Just not enough complementary football. Just didn’t seem like we were into a rhythm offensively enough. And when we did, we had penalties, self-inflicted wounds early on in the game.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s loss against the Patriots in their last game.
“Monday, when he came to work. I believed in him that day.” - Raheem Morris on Michael Penix Jr after his team’s win against the Commanders in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Atlanta Falcons
WR Washington, Casey
WR London, Drake
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Penix Jr., Michael
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (1,217)
Rushing: James Cook (450)
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid (287)
Touchdowns: James Cook (5)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (918)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (314)
Receiving: Bijan Robinson (270)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (2)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
