Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/09/2025

Game Time: 8:40 pm ET, Saturday, August 9, 2025

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  NESN, PADRES.tv, KFMB 8.1

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +125, Padres -150; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +125, Padres -150; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +125, Padres -150; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Boston Red Sox:  64-52 (2nd place, AL East)

San Diego Padres:  64-51 (2nd place, NL West)

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Boston Red Sox:  8-2 last 10

San Diego Padres:  8-2 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 64-52 record overall and have a road record of 25-30. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .753 OPS. Walker Buehler is their starting pitcher on Friday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-2 with a 3.57 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 3 hits through 8 IP against the Houston Astros.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 64-51 record overall and have a home record of 36-19. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .702 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Friday while Michael King is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts on 6 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 64-51 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 36-19 home record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 64-52 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 25-30 road record this season. Both of these teams have been rolling lately as they are both 8-2 in their last 10 games and both teams are also going to have solid starters in this game. Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-2 with a 3.57 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run and the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting too. The Padres are going with King in this one and he has also looked great this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA, but he hasn't looked great lately. He is coming off a start in which he gave up 3 earned runs which is going to be trouble against this Red Sox offense, and the Padres have been struggling with him lately too, losing 3 games in a row now that he has started. Both of these starters have been great all season, but Giolito has looked better lately of the 2 and the Red Sox also have the stronger offense to help out too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, August 9, 2025 (8:40 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Padres 4.

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Boston Red Sox: 107-110 (+4.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 89-106 (+7.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 162-156 (+10.3 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 11-6 UNDER on the road against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres: 17-22 (-5.1 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 166-120 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 168-147 (-7.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 39-25 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Boston Red Sox:  L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. M. Mayer (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

San Diego Padres:  M. King (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I couldn't think of a better city to play in [for] the next eight to nine years of my life. And I'm super excited. I want to thank all the fans who show up every day and continue to support us regardless of the outcome. It's really just a special place to play and a special place to show up every single day. I couldn't be more excited for this and couldn't be more thankful for everyone in this room and everyone who's helped me get here today.” - Roman Anthony on his contract. 

“Whether we add, it’s going to be hard to expect anything better than Michael King.” - Mike Shildt on King coming back from injury. 

Roman Anthony (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Trevor Story (R) SS

Jarren Duran (L) CF

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Ramón Laureano (R) LF

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ryan O'Hearn (L) RF

Xander Bogaerts (R) DH

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Jose Iglesias (R) SS

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.305)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (121)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (20)

RBI:  Trevor Story (73)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (19)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (13)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (21)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Freddy Fermin (.438)

Hits:  Manny Machado (133)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (20)

RBI:  Manny Machado (72)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (11)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (32)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)