by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 30, 2025
Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Red Sox +138, Yankees -165; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Red Sox +140, Yankees -170; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Red Sox +140, Yankees -170; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Boston Red Sox: 89-73 (3rd place, AL East)
New York Yankees: 94-68 (2nd place, AL East)
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Recent Form
Boston Red Sox: 6-4 last 10
New York Yankees: 9-1 last 10
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Preview and Analysis
The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 to end the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Yankees on Wednesday for the American League Wild Card Series. The Red Sox won the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .745 OPS. Garrett Crochet is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Brayan Bello is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 3 Ks on 3 hits through 5 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Yankees are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 94-68 record overall and had a home record of 50-31. This is the 2nd game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Red Sox on Wednesday for the ALWCS. The Yankees lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .787 OPS. Max Fried is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings played against the Chicago White Sox.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked great in their games this season with their 94-68 record overall which had them right near the top of the AL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 50-31 home record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 89-73 record overall which had them right in the middle of the AL East. They have looked good in their road games too with their 41-40 road record this season. The Red Sox have been hot to finish the season with their 6-4 record in their last 10 games, but the Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games and have been rolling lately. The Yankees also finished with the same record as the Blue Jays who won the division and they lost out on the bye due to the tiebreaker so they are going to be motivated, finishing with one of the best records in the league. Bello is on the mound for the Red Sox in this one and he hasn't looked great lately. He is 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA and his team has been struggling with him lately. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but he has been giving up more runs lately and his team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too. The Yankees are going with Rodon in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and his team has been having a lot of success with him lately. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and his team has still lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Yankees have the better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game.
Red Sox Yankees Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 1, 2025 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Yankees 4 Red Sox 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Boston Red Sox: 123-120 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 95-113 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 80-75 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 12-6 OVER on the road vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%.
New York Yankees: 277-222 (-18.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 140-110 (-23.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 213-157 (-29.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 33-19 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.
Key Injuries
Boston Red Sox: B. Bernardino (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. V. Grissom (2B) Sixty Day IL - Foot. D. May (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Hicks (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. R. Anthony (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. M. Mayer (3B) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Biceps. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
New York Yankees: J. Chisholm Jr. (2B) Day To Day - Forearm. B. Headrick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Loaisiga (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“Just as a fan of the game, I think growing up, you know pretty well about the rivalry and what it means to both cities. And I think it's a special thing. I think it's the best in all of sports.” - Trevor Story on playing the Yankees in the MLB Wild Card Series.
“We’ve got a rowdy crowd out there, a rowdy group that’s been behind us all year long. Even in our tough times in the summer, they were still showing out in numbers, supporting us. They’re definitely going to be excited for a Yankees-Red Sox postseason matchup, that’s for sure.” - Aaron Judge on playing the Red Sox in the MLB Wild Card Series.
Starting Lineups
Boston Red Sox
Rob Refsnyder (R) DH
Trevor Story (R) SS
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B
Carlos Narváez (R) C
Nate Eaton (R) RF
Jarren Duran (L) LF
Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF
Nick Sogard (S) 2B
New York Yankees
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Cody Bellinger (L) LF
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Amed Rosario (R) 2B
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Austin Wells (L) C
José Caballero (R) 3B
Statistical Leaders
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average: Romy Gonzalez (.305)
Hits: Trevor Story (161)
Home Runs: Trevor Story (25)
RBI: Trevor Story (96)
Stolen Bases: Trevor Story (31)
Wins: Garrett Crochet (18)
Saves: Aroldis Chapman (32)
ERA: Nick Burdi (0.00)
New York Yankees
Batting Average: Aaron Judge (.331)
Hits: Aaron Judge (179)
Home Runs: Aaron Judge (53)
RBI: Aaron Judge (114)
Stolen Bases: Jazz Chisholm (31)
Wins: Max Fried (19)
Saves: Devin Williams (18)
ERA: Adam Ottavino (0.00)
Managers:
Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
