Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/30/2025

Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +112, Yankees -136; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  7 runs

Boston Red Sox:  89-73 (3rd place, AL East)

New York Yankees:  94-68 (2nd place, AL East)

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Boston Red Sox:  6-4 last 10

New York Yankees:  9-1 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 to end the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record overall and had a road record of 41-40. This is the series opener of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Yankees on Tuesday for the American League Wild Card Series. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .745 OPS. José De León was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Garrett Crochet is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA this season. His team won their last 7 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 6 Ks on 3 hits through 8 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Yankees are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 3-0 in their final series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 94-68 record overall and had a home record of 50-31. This is the 1st game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Red Sox on Tuesday for the ALWCS. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .787 OPS. Luis Gil was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Max Fried is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA this season. His team won their last 6 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 7 strikeouts on 4 hits through 7 innings played against the Chicago White Sox.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked great in their games this season with their 94-68 record overall which had them right near the top of the AL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 50-31 home record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 89-73 record overall which had them right in the middle of the AL East. They have looked good in their road games too with their 41-40 road record this season. The Red Sox have been hot to finish the season with their 6-4 record in their last 10 games, but the Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games and have been rolling lately. The Yankees also finished with the same record as the Blue Jays who won the division and they lost out on the bye due to the tiebreaker so they are going to be motivated, finishing with one of the best records in the league. Fried is on the mound for the Yankees in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and the team has had a ton of success with him lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run and the team has won 6 games in a row now with him starting too. The Red Sox are going with Crochet in this one and he has looked great this season too. He is 19-5 with a 2.59 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs and the team has won 7 games in a row now with him starting. Both teams have their best starters on the mound here so there isn't going to be a ton of runs in this game, but the Yankees definitely have the edge here with the home advantage and the better bullpen to lean on late. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Red Sox Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, September 30, 2025 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Yankees 2 Red Sox 1.

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Boston Red Sox: 123-120 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 95-113 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 80-75 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 12-6 OVER on the road vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%.

New York Yankees: 277-222 (-18.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 140-110 (-23.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 213-157 (-29.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 33-19 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Boston Red Sox:  B. Bernardino (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. V. Grissom (2B) Sixty Day IL - Foot. D. May (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Hicks (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. R. Anthony (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. M. Mayer (3B) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Biceps. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  J. Chisholm Jr. (2B) Day To Day - Forearm. B. Headrick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. J. Loaisiga (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Just as a fan of the game, I think growing up, you know pretty well about the rivalry and what it means to both cities. And I think it's a special thing. I think it's the best in all of sports.” - Trevor Story on playing the Yankees in the MLB Wild Card Series.

“We’ve got a rowdy crowd out there, a rowdy group that’s been behind us all year long. Even in our tough times in the summer, they were still showing out in numbers, supporting us. They’re definitely going to be excited for a Yankees-Red Sox postseason matchup, that’s for sure.” - Aaron Judge on playing the Red Sox in the MLB Wild Card Series.

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B

Connor Wong (R) C

David Hamilton (L) 2B

Nick Sogard (S) 3B

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Ben Rice (L) 1B

Aaron Judge (R) RF

Cody Bellinger (L) LF

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Austin Wells (L) C

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Ryan McMahon (L) 3B

José Caballero (R) 2B

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.305)

Hits:  Trevor Story (161)

Home Runs:  Trevor Story (25)

RBI:  Trevor Story (96)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (31)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (18)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (32)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Aaron Judge (.331)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (179)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (53)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (114)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (31)

Wins:  Max Fried (19)

Saves:  Devin Williams (18)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)