Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/21/2025

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Thursday, August 21, 2025

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +108, Yankees -132; Over/Under:  NL runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  NL runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  NL runs

Boston Red Sox:  68-59 (3rd place, AL East)

New York Yankees:  68-57 (2nd place, AL East)

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Boston Red Sox:  3-7 last 10

New York Yankees:  7-3 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 68-59 record overall and have a road record of 27-34. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Yankees on Thursday and they have Wednesday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .748 OPS. Walker Buehler was their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 8-2 with a 3.63 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 7 hits through 6.1 IP against the Miami Marlins.

The Yankees completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 3-0. They enter this game with a 68-57 record overall and have a home record of 37-25. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Red Sox on Thursday with the series finale of their series against the Tampa Bay Rays still to be played on Thursday. The Yankees won the 1st game of that series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .784 OPS. Rookie pitcher Cam Schlittler is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Luis Gil is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 68-59 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 27-34 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked good in their games this season with their 68-57 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 37-25 home record. The Yankees have also been getting really hot lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 and have been starting to slump lately, but the Red Sox do have the better pitching matchup in this one and can take advantage of that to bounce back in this very important series. Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-2 with a 3.63 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another good start in which he only gave up 1 earned run and the team has had a lot of success with him lately too, winning 4 of their last 5 games with him starting. Gil is on the mound for the Yankees in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA and has been giving up some runs in his few starts this year. The team has won 2 games in a row with him starting and he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he is still making his way back from an injury. The Red Sox haven't looked great lately, but they still have one of the best offenses in the MLB and will bring their best effort for this big series against the Yankees. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, August 21, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Yankees 2.

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Boston Red Sox: 90-109 (+5.6 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 83-67 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline after 3 or more consecutive home games. 166-161 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 13-7 OVER on the road vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season.

New York Yankees: 251-211 (-29.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 127-104 (-28.3 units) on the moneyline in home games. 188-148 (-40.9 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 32-18 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Boston Red Sox:  W. Abreu (RF) Day To Day - Calf. R. Refsnyder (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. M. Mayer (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  B. Headrick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. A. Slater (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Loaisiga (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. F. Cruz (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. R. Yarbrough (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. O. Cabrera (3B) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. J. Cousins (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Cole (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Yeah, we chased a lot today. We haven't done that in a while. We had our opportunities to win the game early in the game, in the middle of the game, late in the game. It just didn’t happen.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Tuesday.

"To do it twice, that’s remarkable. There were some ones that were seriously hit, too. Just a really impressive offensive showing against a team that is not always easy to score runs against.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the Rays in their game on Tuesday.

Nate Eaton (R) DH

Roman Anthony (L) RF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Romy Gonzalez (R) 2B

Trevor Story (R) SS

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Abraham Toro (S) 1B

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Aaron Judge (R) DH

Cody Bellinger (L) LF

Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF

Ben Rice (L) C

Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

José Caballero (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Alex Bregman (.298)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (129)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (22)

RBI:  Trevor Story (79)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (22)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (13)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (22)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Amed Rosario (.500)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (139)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (40)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (92)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (21)

Wins:  Max Fried (13)

Saves:  Devin Williams (17)

ERA:  Adam Ottavino (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (8th season)