Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/26/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -163, Marlins +135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -165, Marlins +135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -165, Marlins +135; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Boston Red Sox:  72-59 (3rd place, AL East)

Miami Marlins:  67-65 (3rd place, NL East)

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Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

Miami Marlins:  5-5 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 72-59 record overall and have a road record of 38-27. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Red Sox won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Payton Tolle is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Sonny Gray is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 2 BB with 6 SO on 7 hits through 6 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 67-65 record overall and have a home record of 41-26. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Marlins lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .728 OPS. Tyler Phillips is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Ryan Gusto is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 2 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 72-59 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They have been a good road team too with their 39-28 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 67-65 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 41-26 home record this season. The Marlins have one of the best home records in MLB this season, but lately they haven't looked great as they are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months and they have been rolling lately, now 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Red Sox are going with Gray in this one and he has looked great this season too. He is 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this season and the team has still won 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Marlins are going with Gusto in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA and he has been in and out of the bullpen all season. He is coming off a good start giving up no runs and the team has won 3 games in a row now with him starting, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the Marlins offense hasn't been putting up a ton of runs lately either. The Red Sox have the better pitching matchup here along with the better bullpen, so look for them to take advantage of that. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, August 26, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 6 Marlins 1.

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Boston Red Sox: 39-27 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 38-23 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 19-6 (+11.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than 5 innings per start. 16-10 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more.

Miami Marlins: 18-24 (-6.2 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. 6-14 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 7-19 (-8 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 17-8 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.

Boston Red Sox:  J. Slaten (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Yoshida (DH) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. G. Whitlock (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. I. Kiner-Falefa (2B) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Mead (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand. Z. Kelly (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Anthony (LF) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. G. Crochet (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Story (SS) Sixty Day IL - Abdomen. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Oviedo (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Miami Marlins:  P. Fairbanks (RP) Day To Day - Nerve Irritation. W. Kempner (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“They were awesome. They set up innings for us all night. We created opportunities down there. Like I said, we didn't get some runs early, but they just kept going.” - Chad Tracy after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Monday.

"I thought the swing he had on the double to right-center, staying on a breaking ball like that against [Ranger] Suárez, very impressive. He came back and seemed very confident in the box. He was getting off some swings. It was nice to have him back in there, and I thought he took some good passes tonight." - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Monday.

Nick Sogard (S) 3B

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Willson Contreras (R) 1B

Mickey Gasper (S) DH

Andruw Monasterio (R) SS

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Anthony Seigler (S) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Agustín Ramírez (R) DH

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Leo Jiménez (R) 1B

Griffin Conine (L) RF

Esteury Ruiz (R) CF

Brian Navarreto (R) C

Batting Average:  Jahmai Jones (.520)

Hits:  Ceddanne Rafaela (144)

Home Runs:  Willson Contreras (26)

RBI:  Willson Contreras (78)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (18)

Wins:  Sonny Gray (16)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (30)

ERA:  Erik Miller (0.00)

Batting Average:  Deyvison De Los Santos (.333)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (157)

Home Runs:  Heriberto Hernandez (19)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (62)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (29)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (13)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (18)

ERA:  Jack Ralston (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Chad Tracy (Interim)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)