Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/12/2025

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  NESN, SCHN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +101, Astros -123; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +100, Astros -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +100, Astros -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Boston Red Sox:  65-54 (2nd place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  66-52 (1st place, AL West)

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Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

Houston Astros:  5-5 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 65-54 record overall and have a road record of 26-32. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .752 OPS. Garrett Crochet is their starting pitcher on Monday while Dustin May is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-8 with a 4.93 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 6 hits through 3.2 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Astros are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 66-52 record overall and have a home record of 35-24. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Cristian Javier is their starting pitcher on Monday while Spencer Arrighetti is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 11 hits through 3.2 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 65-54 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 26-32 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 66-52 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 35-24 home record. The Astros just beat the Yankees in their last series while the Red Sox lost their last series to the Padres, but the Astros are only 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are 7-3 and have been hot lately. The Red Sox are going with May in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 6-8 with a 4.93 ERA and the team has been struggling with him lately. They have lost 2 games in a row now with May as the starter and he is coming off a start in which he gave up 3 earned runs, but that wasn't a terrible start and he is still the better option in this game. The Astros are going with Arrighetti in this one and he hasn't looked good coming back from his injury. He is 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs. The Astros have lost 2 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 5 earned runs in under 4 innings. Even with their great bullpen, they won't be able to mitigate the damage with Arrighetti, especially since the Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the MLB. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game. 

Red Sox Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 12, 2025 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 9 Astros 7.

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Boston Red Sox: 223-219 (-11.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 117-125 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 164-160 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 30-21 OVER on the road vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Houston Astros: 108-96 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 58-46 (+7.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 81-63 (+12.5 units) on the moneyline vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 47-28 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season.

Boston Red Sox:  L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. M. Mayer (3B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Slaten (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  I. Paredes (3B) Sixty Day IL - Hamstring. B. Walter (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. B. Rodgers (2B) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“This kid, all he knows about August and September is [being in a pennant race]. I think he's impacting the guys in that clubhouse in terms of, ‘Stay in the moment, don't get ahead of yourself, don’t look around. Just stay here in the moment.’ He's amazing. He's really good at what he does.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Sunday.

“It’s incredible what he does and how frequently he does it. And it comes at the biggest moments of the game.” - Joe Espada after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Sunday.

Roman Anthony (L) LF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Jarren Duran (L) CF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Masataka Yoshida (L) DH

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Carlos Correa (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) DH

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) C

Jesús Sánchez (L) LF

Cam Smith (R) RF

Mauricio Dubón (R) 2B

Chas McCormick (R) CF

Batting Average:  Romy Gonzalez (.302)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (124)

Home Runs:  Wilyer Abreu (21)

RBI:  Trevor Story (73)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (19)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (13)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (21)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Carlos Correa (.405)

Hits:  Jose Altuve (126)

Home Runs:  Jose Altuve (21)

RBI:  Jose Altuve (63)

Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (11)

Saves:  Josh Hader (28)

ERA:  Shawn Dubin (1.33)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)