Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/06/2025

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Saturday, September 6, 2025

Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  NESN, DBACKS.tv 

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -132, Diamondbacks +108; Over/Under:  9 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -130, Diamondbacks +110; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -130, Diamondbacks +110; Over/Under:  9 runs

Boston Red Sox:  78-63 (3rd place, AL East)

Arizona Diamondbacks:  70-71 (4th place, NL West)

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Boston Red Sox:  7-3 last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks:  6-4 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 78-63 record overall and have a road record of 34-35. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .751 OPS. Rookie pitcher Payton Tolle is their starting pitcher on Friday while Lucas Giolito is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 10-2 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 5 BB with 6 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Diamondbacks are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 70-71 record overall and have a home record of 36-33. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .758 OPS. Eduardo Rodríguez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Brandon Pfaadt is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 12-8 with a 5.33 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 8 hits through 4.1 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox have looked really good in their games this season with their 78-63 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East and in a Wild Card spot. They haven't been a great road team though with their 34-35 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks haven't looked good in their games this season with their 70-71 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL West. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 36-33 home record this year. They have also looked better lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Red Sox are 7-3 and have been rolling lately too. The Red Sox also have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that. Giolito is on the mound for the Red Sox in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 10-2 with a 3.38 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run, and the team has had a ton of success with him lately too, winning 4 games in a row now with him starting. The Diamondbacks are going with Pfaadt in this one and he has been really up and down this year. He is 12-8 with a 5.33 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs lately. He gave up 4 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him, and the team has struggled with him starting too, losing 3 of their last 4 games with him on the mound. The Red Sox have a big edge with Giolito here and they are still trying to clinch a Wild Card spot. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to cover the spread in this game. 

Red Sox Diamondbacks Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, September 6, 2025 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 5 Diamondbacks 2.

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Boston Red Sox: 18-24 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 236-228 (-10.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 130-106 (-19.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 42-29 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 252-230 (+11.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 107-118 (+21.7 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 127-127 (+13.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 23-15 OVER against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox:  J. Hicks (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. R. Anthony (RF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. M. Mayer (3B) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. R. Fitts (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Biceps. W. Abreu (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. L. Guerrero (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Flexor. H. Dobbins (SP) Sixty Day IL - ACL. L. Hendriks (RP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. J. Winckowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. K. Crawford (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks:  L. Gurriel Jr. (LF) Ten Day IL - ACL. P. Smith (1B) Ten Day IL - Quadriceps. A. DeSclafani (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Thumb. K. Ginkel (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Henry (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Montes De Oca (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Martinez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Mena (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Burnes (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Puk (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walston (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I told him to envision [stepping in for] ALCS, first at-bat. That's what I told him. Just put that goal in your mind and hopefully that happens.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday.

“I had a few minute conversation with [Gurriel] today when I got here, and he's just trying to understand why it happened and what the next several days and months and weeks, potentially a year will look like. I hurt for him and I could tell he was hurting. It's a very tough time for this team right now. It's one more hit that just keeps coming our way, right?” - Torey Lovullo after his team’s win against the Rangers in their game on Tuesday.

Nate Eaton (R) 3B

Alex Bregman (R) DH

Trevor Story (R) SS

Romy Gonzalez (R) 1B

Rob Refsnyder (R) RF

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Nick Sogard (S) 2B

Connor Wong (R) C

Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS

Ketel Marte (S) 2B

Corbin Carroll (L) RF

Gabriel Moreno (R) C

Adrian Del Castillo (L) DH

Blaze Alexander (R) 3B

Alek Thomas (L) CF

Tyler Locklear (R) 1B

Jake McCarthy (L) LF

Batting Average:  Nathaniel Lowe (.324)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (140)

Home Runs:  Trevor Story (23)

RBI:  Trevor Story (88)

Stolen Bases:  Trevor Story (25)

Wins:  Garrett Crochet (14)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (28)

ERA:  Nick Burdi (0.00)

Batting Average:  Ketel Marte (.290)

Hits:  Geraldo Perdomo (146)

Home Runs:  Corbin Carroll (29)

RBI:  Geraldo Perdomo (88)

Stolen Bases:  Geraldo Perdomo (24)

Wins:  Brandon Pfaadt (12)

Saves:  Justin Martinez (5)

ERA:  Christian Montes De Oca (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (5th season)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo (9th season)